Week Three Thursday Night Recap
*Falcons vs Packers — 35-14 Falcons*
Head Coach Kevin Stefanski and the Falcons had hidden their offense behind the chaos of their quarterback situation. All they needed to add was Michael Penix and the Green Bay Packers defense.
The Falcons in Week Three accomplished what seemed impossible the first two weeks: moving the ball with ease, not turning the ball over, and actually completing passes to their own team in a 35-14 rout of the Packers.
One that worked for the Falcons offense that entered Week Three dead last in EPA per play, scored three points against the Panthers defense that gave up 59 points to the Bears: "Just Beej It" — the Falcons' slogan for getting the ball into the hands of their All-World running back Bijan Robinson, who's pacing the league in touches and scrimmage yards. Most of Robinson's spectacular and herculean performance has gone to waste, but on Thursday Night he delivered once again to bring the Falcons their first win of the season.
Bijan brought out his best performance: 29 carries for 194 rushing yards and two touchdowns, +78 rushing yards over expected, 63 yards after contact, 6.7 yards per run, five explosive runs — one for 57 yards, another for 31 yards — and 9 missed tackles forced. Bijan touched the ball on 5 of the first 8 plays of the Falcons' first two drives.
The Falcons rushed for 244 yards total on 49 rushes, attacking Green Bay's weak front. Atlanta's offense controlled clock and game, as Robinson looked like his best self eluding tacklers in the backfield. After starving themselves of red zone drives — zero through two games — the Falcons generated four red zone drives against the Packers, all of which they converted into touchdowns, after scoring just one touchdown in the past eight quarters of football.
Bijan wouldn't do all the heavy lifting alone. Michael Penix made his season debut, a crucial Year 3 for the former 8th overall pick. Under these conditions, Penix delivered one of the best games of his Falcons career: 18/25, 256 passing yards, one touchdown, one pick, 72.0% completion, +0.24 EPA per dropback. In the middle of Bijan rumbling over the Packers defense, Penix delivered strike after strike after throwing an interception on the Falcons' fourth offensive snap of the game. I thought the pick gave the Packers momentum early. Even if Jordan Love and the offense generated some control, the Falcons had produced so many turnovers and negative plays at QB that the Cooper Rush bug might have taken over the locker room.
Green Bay opened scoring with a TD in the first quarter, and that's all most opponents need to settle down the Falcons, but Penix got going, and more importantly, Bijan got going. Atlanta responded: Bijan broke off a big 55-yard run that set up his three-yard touchdown.
With Penix, accuracy and anticipation will always come and go. Still, what makes the Falcons offense fly is getting the ball to his playmakers after an emotional outburst on the sidelines during their loss — star receiver Drake London broke out with 9 catches for 194 receiving yards, five receiving first downs, 21.6 per reception, 8.1 yards per route, and +1.14 EPA per target. London's lack of breakaway speed betrayed him in the fourth quarter on a go route he won on release, but failed to capitalize downfield with a clear runway to end zone as a Packers defender caught him after a 68-yard catch, 42 YAC, a big play that ended in a field goal for Atlanta.
Tight end Austin Hooper registered the Falcons only receiving TD in the second quarter on a five-yard pass from Penix, and for a while it didn't look real as the Falcons nearly outpaced their first two weeks of offense in one half. Former Commander running back Brian Robinson got in on scoring in third quarter with seven-yard scamper for 24-7 lead that ballooned to 35 with a FG and TD in fourth.
Packers offense got few splash plays, like 45-yard reception by Matthew Golden to start game that led to Packers TD, and 34-yard PI also generated by Matthew Golden that led to missed FG. Still offset by negative plays. Packers offense lacks run game Falcons displayed. Falcons offense lived and died on Jordan Love's $50M arm, and his inconsistent mechanics betrayed him: 28/53 (52.8%), 312 passing yards, two touchdowns, one pick, 75.3 rating. Packers offense settled at 0.00 EPA per play — dead even, not positive not negative. Defense gave up +0.294 EPA per play, 7.4 yards per play, 488 yards, 60% third-down conversion. Pass rush generated five pressures on Penix, a statuesque QB coming off ACL. I don't believe Micah Parsons could have impacted this — ok, maybe he would have — but at 1-2 and not on upturn by time Parsons returns, what state will he meet his team in? Headed for top-ten pick in thick of NFC North battle? I don't expect Packers run game to improve until Josh Jacobs gets back. Whenever that happens, they'll have too many options outside at receiver. Play calling hasn't gotten Tucker Kraft going yet after he functioned as Packers top option as pass catcher, averaging 2.3 yards per route run in 2025 before devastating knee injury.
Can or will the Falcons sustain this level of offense with Penix at quarterback? We saw the big throws downfield, but we saw the pick, the inaccuracy to go along with it. He's operating a new offense. How can Atlanta maximize his big-play qualities while not stripping away his aggressiveness to avoid negative plays moving forward? We all know they can "Just Beej It."
