NFL Week Three Previews

I’m running low on preamble juice right now, but in short, I Preview Five NFL games every week. Yes, 5 out of 16 is not a great percentage, but at the level of depth I Attempt To Hit Each Game With Requires Time, caffeine, and glucose, which my brain can only handle in spurts. Will a 38-year-old Kirk Cousins Stay Hot With The Raiders Against A Saints team that has refused to die in back-to-back games? Deshaun Watson Comes in off Arguably His Best Game as a Browns Passer. Can He Build on his Week 2 Output and Stump the Panthers and the Browns fans simultaneously?

Patriots Vs Jaguars

  A battle between two AFC teams with some legitimacy angles to settle: which team will emerge From The AfC Rubble With A Stronger Case As A Contender? The Jags, led by Trevor Lawrence, are one of the hottest teams heading into the season, but they hit a cold wind in a brush-up with the Denver Broncos at altitude. Lawrence threw for 167 Passing Yards, zero Touchdowns, -0.24 EPA Per Dropback, and a worrisome 63.7 Passer Rating In The Jags' first test after routing the Browns in Week One. The main pressure Denver Got In On Lawrence: 45.2% Pressure Rate, 32.3% Blitz Rate, 14 pressures total, two sacks. Denver Didn’t Allow Lawrence to get comfortable in the pocket and blew the Denver Defense Away Downfield: 4 of 12 passes under pressure for 72 yards, including an interception. The Patriots' Face Has Looked Strong Through Two Games. New England Ranks Number One In EPA Per Play and Points Per Game Allowed, Fifth In passing Yards Per Game Allowed, and third in yards per pass allowed. The Pats Face Seattle backup Drew Lock in Week One—Lock looked impressive in Week Two Against The Cardinals—and an aged, physically limited Aaron Rodgers in Week Two. Still, Lawrence will be the best quarterback the Patriots Face This Season. In Terms Of Pressure The Patriots RANK 15th At 37% A Pretty High Middle Of The Pack, The Defensive Line Lacks Star Power, Right now Linebacker Dre’mont Jones Leads The Team In Pressures. The Patriots Faced Some Trouble With Seattle’s Jadarian Price in Week One, but otherwise, running backs Have Found The New England Run Defense Unwelcome (-0.23 EPA per Rush Allowed). The Jags' run game played better than average. Bhayshul Tuten averaged 5 yards on 13 Carries For 65. The Patriots' run game got the scoring Going For New England on Sunday. Treyveon Henderson burst downfield for a 39-yard rushing touchdown.

The Patriots Offense Remains a Shell of what we Saw Last Season: the Turnover Rate Reached 9.8%, while the touchdown rate remains Slumped At 3.9%. The Down To Down consistency Has Greatly Degraded, Maye Has Kicked Up The Scramble Generating +0.16 EPA Per Scramble, The Best Mark In The League, And The Best Offense The Patriots Have Managed Thus Far this Season. Maye has struggled with turnovers, with -0.21 EPA per Target on Interceptions This Season; he threw another brutal one on Sunday. The Patriots have the Fourth-Worst EPA lost to Turnover, and the Jags Defense Has the Fourth-Best Net Difference on Turnovers—the Jags Defense +0.104 EPA To The Broncos, who struggled in Week One To Consistently Score Points. Jaylen Waddle picked up his first big game as a Bronco: 138 Receiving Yards, 8 Catches, Six First Downs. The Jags' pass rush was completely dormant: just 8 Pressures, 19.4% of Bo Nix, After He Saw A 45.5% Pressure rate against the Chiefs. Maybe they'll need to play a clean game, with both teams needing a signature win early in the season. In The End, I Think The Jags get The Better Of New England Thanks To A More Consistent Offense.

Steelers Vs Bengals

The Bengals Defense will look to Continue Its Hot Start Against One of the League’s worst Offenses: Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Highlighting the Cincinnati Bengals usually starts with the big names on offense, like Joe Burrow, Chase, and Tee Higgins, but the defense, one of the worst in football, has started to steal the show. Over two weeks, the Bengals defense has established itself third in EPA Per Play Allowed, holding a Houston Offense That Scored 30 Plus Points in Week 1 to Just Six points, while hemorrhaging yards in the process. The Bengals Defense Focuses on not surrendering a 3.4% Touchdown Rate, three Touchdowns Total, Two On The Ground and One Through The Air, and A 13.8% Turnover Percentage, +14 EPA added Off Turnovers, Mostly The Four The Picked Up From The Bucs in Week One. The Bengals didn’t Turn The Texans over, but they forced Houston into Field Goals and into a one-dimensional style of Offense By Relegating The Texans' run game to a -0.47 EPA per rush and forcing CJ Stroud To Absorb 62 Dropbacks. The drop-back game Has Not worked Out For The Steelers. Aaron Rodgers closed the Loss to the Patriots from the bench as the Patriots' pass rush laid the smackdown on him: four sacks, 13 Pressures Allowed, and pressure on 38.6% of his DropBacks Against New England. Rodgers failed To Complete A Pass Over 20 Air Yards, dishing Out What Little Damage He Delivered On Short Passes (under 10 air yards), completing 20 of 27 for 142 yards and one interception, Ultimately Finishing 23 of 39 for 187 Passing Yards. The Bengals lack elite pass-defense numbers (253.5 A Game), sixth-worst, but their pressure numbers are 41.4% More than average to accommodate their lack of reliable coverage on the back end. The Bengals have gotten a lot of pressure without an overload of star power. Boye Mafe has a 17.4% pressure rate and an 18.8% pass-rush win rate. The Bengals’ offense will have to contend with the Steelers ’ pass rush, which features T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbrig, three top-20 defensive linemen.

The Steelers Rank Fifth In EPA Per Play, Number One in Sack Rate, and third in passing yards allowed heading into Week Three. Joe Burrow just clocked his best game against a Houston defense playing on reputation alone: 20/31 for 207 passing yards, two touchdowns, and a 105.2 Passer Rating. Burrow got Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (95 yards, 19.0 Yards Per Reception) involved, and Chase snagged both touchdowns. Bengals running Back Chase Brown Can Also Go 80 Yards On 20 Carries For 4.0 yards Per Carry. The Steelers' run defense got bench-pressed by the Falcons and Bijan Robinson, 173 Total Scrimmage Yards, and Also Gave Up a Big Play To Treyveon Henderson against New England. The Steelers Need To Put DK Metcalf’s picture on a milk carton because he hasn’t shown up in two straight games: 8 Catches For 67 receiving Yards. Rodgers Play Hasn’t Hurt The Steelers As Much As The Pieces Around Him Have But I Don’t Believe He’s The Player To Elevate a Roster Like This One, He’s Inaccurate On A lot Of Throw By Putting The Ball Out Of Harms way (1.1% turnover-worthy play rate )By Placing The Ball In Spots No One Can Catch. Rodgers ' average depth of target fell to 5.2 in Week Two, and His Time To Throw Revved Up To 2.55 Seconds. The Bengals Offense Has Started to pick up Their Play after Week One, and while I Don’t expect an otherworldly explosive performance, I Think The Bengals Pull This matchup out and Drop The Steelers to 1-2 by moving to 3-0 themselves.  

Panthers Vs Browns

Ahead of the Browns’ Week Two Matchup With The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Reports Surfaced That The Brown’s Brass and decision-makers mulled the idea of benching Deshaun ahead of the Browns’ home opener in Week Three. Of course, the Browns upset the Bucs in Week Two. Deshaun played “Not Bad”: 24/30, 238 passing yards, and a 121.9 passer rating against the Bucs. Right now, he’s 12th In The NFL in adjusted EPA per play, Which Protects Watson’s Starting Position For Another Week. However, The Quality Of Watson’s play alone didn’t inspire the Browns to bench Watson. A Caustic Feud Between Watson and Browns fans has simmered for months, stemming from an injury fiasco when Browns fans cheered as a hobbled Watson left the field two seasons ago with an Achilles Injury. Watson took offense and let his umbrage be known, calling out the Browns’ Fans in August, it has nothing to do with the performance," Watson said. "It's a little bit [more] personal than that…” Referring To The “Boos” this quote also explains His Potential Benching. The Browns will face the Red Hot Panthers' Offense, and Carolina won't think about benching Bryce Young anytime. Carolina Leads The League In Passing Yards, Second in Points Scored per Game, and Fifth in Total Yards per Game as Dave Canales Has His Offense Humming. Bryce Young Six Touchdown One Pick In Two Games, +8.0 Completion Percentage Over Expected, +0.24 EPA Per Drop back, 10.5 Average Depth Of Target He’s Really started To Come Into His own After a Tumultuous Start To His Career. a look Under The Hood Reveals Some Flaws The Run Game For Carolina Lacks Some “Giddy Up”, 24th In Rush EpA, 16th In Success Rate Over and 16th In Dropback success Rate. Carolina relies heavily on explosive plays by Bryce Young and his receivers downfield to set up red-zone drives and Scoring position. They’ll face a Browns defense coming off of a strong outing against Baker Mayfield, holding The 165 Million Dollar Man and The$165 Millionse To -0.34 EPA Per Pass Play, A 73.4 Passer Rating, one touchdown, and one pick. The Browns’ defense Allowed The Jaguars' passing attack to carve them up in Week One; Trevor Lawrence posted a near-perfect 150.6 Passer Rating. So which Browns Defense Will show Up In Week Three To Face Off Against Panthers Receivers Jalen Coker and T.J. McMillian, two receivers in the top ten in receiving yards through two games? The Panthers Defense Nearly Mirrors The Browns. The Carolina Defense Got Blasted by the Bears in Week One: 59 points. The Bears ran and danced all over them. The Falcons Caught Carolina on the rebound; just three points allowed held Cooper Rush To Just 86 passing Yards and the Falcons to 0.68 EPA per pass, 4.5 yards per attempt. Bijan Robinson and the Falcons' run game still managed to stomp out the Carolina Run Defense For 148 Rushing Yards. Carolina’s secondary will face the Cleveland rookie receiver Denzel Boston: 2.8 yards per route, 51.9% air yards share, 154 yards, two touchdowns, and 16.5 air yards per target. He’s off to a brilliant start to his career—the Rest Of The browns Receiver Corps: A Mixed Bag. Tight End Harold leads the team in receiving yards with 75, followed by Rookie KC Concepcion. The Browns' run game is stuck in the mud; right tackle Watson Leads The Team In rushing with just 60 yards. Somehow, Cleveland gets a Pass from Last Place, Thanks to the Packers and Chargers Producing Worse numbers in terms of rushing EPA. Will the Browns' run game wake up and pressure the Panthers' glaring run-defense weakness? Deshaun Watson has a habit of having balls over the middle, where Panthers linebacker Devin Lloyd Lurks, and Watson Needs To Play With Caution. In two games, no team in football has thrived more on turnovers than the Panthers (+17 Net Difference Off Turnovers).

Vikings Vs Buccaneers

Let The Bad Offensive Games Reign! The Bucs have an Unfamiliar and Inauspicious Start, Not Only at 0-2, but their offense hasn't hit the ground running and has figured out very little against the Vikings This Season. The Bucs offense: all fingers point to quarterback Baker Mayfield. He’s got a Big $165 Million Target On His Back After He Signed A lucrative Extension Right Before The Season, And In Week One he delivered a turnover-fueled masterpiece in A Loss To The Bengals. Not The Showcase Baker was inspired to deliver. Still, turnovers Happen To Everyone, and The Responsibility Doesn’t always fall on the quarterback; in an Always-Emotional Game Against the Browns, Mayfield turned in another dud: 21/34, 182 Passing Yards, -0.25 EPA Per Dropback. He’s already been pressured 31 Times and has seven sacks in two games. In Past Seasons, Baker would produce big plays downfield (With Mike Evans) To Offset his lack of down-to-down production, but this season (Without Evans) he’s one of the league’s worst deep passers: just 2 for 10 on serious attempts, according to NFL Pro; 2/12 according to PFF Charting. Had the Bucs Had Evans, I Don’t Think He Would Have Factored in too much, given how the Vikings have played defense in the Last Six Quarters of Football. The Vikings flipped the switch after trailing for most of the game against the Packers, Despite Giving 387 passing yards, And Brought Out All The Bear Traps against Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson, and Chicago, Restricting An Eruptive Chicago Offense To Just Three Points. The Program For Brian Flores and the Vikings Defense Won’t Change Blitz a lot, Number One In The League By a Large Margin, 75.3%, nearly 30 Percentage Pints Higher Than Second Place, and Minnesota bend But Don’t Break, surrender 358 Yards Per Game Through And 258 in the pass game by sending extra defenders. The Vikings have allowed passers to gain downfield before ultimately forcing offenses to buckle inside the 20 Yard Line. The Vikings Face 3.5 Red Zone Attempts Per Game, but Allow Only a 14.3% red zone touchdown-scoring percentage. Baker has handled the blitz pretty well this season as both a passer and a scrambler. He’s sporting a 70.6 Pff Rushing Grade as a scrambler, 57 scramble yards on the season, and Four First Downs. Really, only his fumbles have held him.

back. As a passer, 123.6 Passer Rating, +19.0 Completion Percentage Over Expected, and +0.21 EPA per Dropback When Blitzed This Season, Caleb Williams Managed Three Runs Of 10 Yards On The Vikings Before His Hamstring Injury Truncated His Performance. The Vikings’ Defense. For the Vikings offense, Kyler Murray returns after missing All But 11 snaps. Murray Has Cleared Concussion Protocol To Start in Week Three. Murray's first few passes as the Vikings quarterback didn’t go well: one pick, 18 Passing Yards, 3.8 Yards Per Attempt, 27.5 Passer Rating; I Can’t Say He’s Better Than Carson Wentz Right Now. Not much has gone right for the Vikings Offense: 30th In Success Rate, 18th in EPA per Play. The Vikings Have Some Consistent Function on Offense. They’ll Face A Bucs defense that goes “Da Bidness” From Deshaun Watson and The Brown, as Watson Produced His Best Game In years: 24/30, Two Touchdowns, +0.25 EPA per Dropback, +3.0% completion percentage over expected- his best game since 2020. One Running Back Again Getting The Ball To Justin Jefferson After a Down Year In 2025, Jefferson Has Got His Powers Back Through Two Games: 2.8 Yards Per Route Run, +11.8 Catch Rate Over Expected, +11.5 Receiving EPA, +0.77 Per Target Number In Line With Some Of The Best Work Of His Career. The Bucs Secondary Struggled To Handle Cleveland’s Rookie Receiver Denzel Boston. Todd Bowles Will Have To structure his defense to shade Jefferson and Force Other Vikings Receivers To Produce Guys Like TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison, Who Have Both Produced And Struggled At Times This Season. The Bucs Need To Win On Sunday more than any team. A 0-3 Start Put Tampa Bay beyond The Danger Of Falling Out Of The Race and Puts Head Coach Todd Bowles in firing Territory. I think what we’ve witnessed from the Vikings, while seemingly unsustainable and fluky, will work for the third game in A Row. I don’t think Kyler Murray starts his Kevin O’Connell career reclamation, nor do I Think He Keeps The Ball Out of Harbaugh's way, but he makes enough plays and enough points on the boards for the Vikings' Minnesota Wins.

Raiders Vs Saints

“Captain Kirk”, “Kirko Chains” Whatever You Want To Call Him But At 38 Years Old In Year 15 Kirk Cousins Has Defied The Odds And Continue To Get The Job Done Proving He’s Still Got Live Wire In Those Arms. The Veteran Quarterback, not Long Removed From An Achilles’ Rapture and A Benching In Atlanta, has Returned As The Starter For The Raiders Delivering More Than Stop Gap Player In two Starts cousins Has Paced The League with Six TouchdownS (Tied With Three Other Players), completing 67.8% Of His Passes, +0.09 EPA Per Dropback To Go Along With three Picks. Cousins Proved He Can still Get The Ball Downfield On Sunday Against The Chargers. He registered 8 of 12 for 181 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception on passes of 10 air yards or better, including a 40 Yard Bomb To Wide Receiver Tre Tucker. Kirk will face the New Orleans Saints defense fresh off an upset Victory Over Lamar Jackson And The Ravens. The Saints Pass Rush Got After Lamar Jackson Like He stole something from them, pressuring Jackson 44.7% of his dropbacks and forcing him to just 8 of 12 for 56 yards, a touchdown, and an interception under pressure, with three Sacks Total. One of the Main Culprits in the Demolition crew That Took down the Ravens' offensive line: Chase Young, 1.5 Sacks Against the Ravens. He’s Got Seven Quick Pressures On The season, fourth most in the league. Cousins Saw Sixteen Pressures and had two sacks against the Chargers. Will the Saints' pass rush prove to be Cousins' demise this early in the season?

On The Other Hand The Saints offense Has Gotten Off to A Brilliant Start Quarterback Tyler Shough Leads The League In Passing Yards Through two Games, 662 Passing Yards, Completing 68.7% Of His Passes Four Touchdowns Two Picks, He Just Hung 252 On the Ravens Defense, +0.22 EPA Per Drop Back and Completed 79.4% Against The Ravens. The Saints Offense Leans Heavily On The Pass (69%)But The Raiders Defense Not The Team You Want To Break Out You New Shinny Passing Offense, 182 Passing yards Allowed Per Game, -0.16 EPA Per Pass Allowed and A Ridiculous 50.0% Pressure Rate, Number One In The League and 11.8% Sack Rate Number Two In the league. The Raiders Have Only Played The Dolphins, a pass game everyone expected to struggle this season, and the Chargers, Who Have Surprisingly Struggled Under The Guiding Mind Of Mike McDaniels. Tyler Shough and the Saints will be the first truly competent passing offense the Raiders Will Face, and Shough conquered pressure against the Ravens, going 8 for 10 for 97 yards when facing pressure against the Ravens For The Season. His +0.08 EPA per dropback under pressure is sixth-best in the league, even while throwing into some of the tightest windows in football. Neither offense boosts a strong run game. The Raiders' perpetual descent in rushing continues; they rank at The Bottom of The League In yards per rush: 2.8 yards per carry (they should almost be rushing at all). The Saints: 3 Yards Per Carry. Neither defense Has Played Elite Tight Coverage. The Saints enter Week Three fifth-worst in separation rate; the Raiders rank fifteenth-worst. These two offenses could find themselves in a shootout, with the Saints Not Slowing Down Kirk Cousins but outlasting him in a high-scoring game.