Rookie Quarterback jalon Daniels Sparks Bucs To 24-16 upset Over Cowboys

Thursday Night Football Review: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys

The Tampa Bay Bucs' season may come down to a Thursday night matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at quarterback instead of Baker Mayfield. In some cases, Week 5 can become the cut-off point for some teams.

The Panthers and Falcons continue to surge in the NFC South, but mostly the Bucs haven't played at a high level in recent weeks, even before the Baker Mayfield injury.

When the Bucs and Cowboys collided on Thursday night, strengths and weaknesses shifted the balance of the game. The Cowboys are back at the bottom of the league in pass defense, facing off against Daniels, a rookie who completed 70% of his passes against the Packers, though most of his highlights focused on his running. The Bucs defense is top ten against the pass, facing Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, fourth in EPA per pass, coming off one of their best games of the season against the Texans. Which aspect of both teams will give in?

The Bucs could potentially save their season if the Cowboys' defense can't capitalize on Daniels' mistakes.

The Tampa Bay Bucs Secure Their First Win Of The Season In Week Five, pushing past the Dallas Cowboys 24-16.

Both defenses kept their teams in this game. The Cowboys gave up 434 net yards of offense to a rookie-led Bucs team that's looked putrid most of the season, and in some ways this score could have looked worse because of Dallas turnovers in the second half.

After a few entertaining Thursday night games to start the season, we got back to the slow days.

The Cowboys got the low-scoring affair going early with a 9-play, 70-yard drive: a big Javonte Williams 21-yard run, and a 21-yard Prescott pass to George Pickens set up a Williams one-yard touchdown at the goal line. Dallas's rushing attack generated just 50 yards on the ground; 21 came on that one play. The Cowboys have passed the ball heavily through the season, and they stuck to the shotgun philosophy in this game, which ultimately betrayed them later on.

If you're an undrafted rookie backup and you want to make your second start of the season against any team, you would pick the Cowboys, who would give you chances. Midway through the Bucs' first drive of the game, with Tampa facing the Cowboys' pass rush, Daniels was sacked for a 12-yard loss on 3rd and 5, a play that would have killed the drive and gotten the offense back on the field to help build the lead. Instead, Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland picked up a holding penalty, giving the Bucs a new set of downs. The Cowboys suffered three penalties on the drive and ultimately gave up a passing touchdown when Daniels threw a five-yard pass to Bucky Irving.

The Bucs tied the game, but they also controlled 10:58 of game time, keeping Prescott and the Dallas offense on the sideline. The Bucs won largely by controlling the ball 39-plus minutes, compared to just 20 minutes for Dak and the Cowboys' offense.

Dak: 42 dropbacks, 42 pass attempts, 24 completions for 315 passing yards, one touchdown, two picks, and a 69.0 passer rating. The Bucs didn't register a sack, but they pressured Dak 16 times; he threw 3/13 for 28 yards when pressured, and those pressure dropbacks disrupted the Cowboys' offense, forcing a lot of third-and-long, obvious passing situations. Tampa blitzed 42.9% of the time.

The Bucs secondary also shut down CeeDee Lamb after his big Week 4 game. The Bucs bracketed Lamb for most of the game. Lamb saw just five targets, -0.66 EPA per target, and a -21.7% catch rate over expected. This opened the door for a big performance by the Cowboys' other receiver, George Pickens: nine catches, 130 yards, and a touchdown. Lamb usually generates first downs for the Cowboys offense; he had 11 first downs in Week 4, and Pickens had the explosive plays. Without Lamb keeping drives alive, the Cowboys offense faltered.

The Cowboys led the Bucs 10-7 heading into the third and wouldn't lead again. The Bucky Irving show started with a 72-yard run from inside the Tampa Bay 15 to the Dallas 14, showcasing Bijan Robinson-level run skills, forcing missed tackles in the box, and taking off. The Bucs scored on a 14-yard pass from Jalon Daniels to receiver Emeka Egbuka for a 14-10 lead.

Daniels played efficiently to support his defense and run game; he pushed the ball downfield and avoided playing completely timid against the Cowboys' defense: 19/25, 76% completion percentage, 189 passing yards, 132 yards after the catch, one touchdown, and a 110.9 passer rating. Daniels' splash 64-yard connection to wide receiver Tez Johnson set up the Bucs' second touchdown of the second half, as Bucky Irving generated three straight successful runs for a goal-line touchdown. Johnson ran a deep corner route, and the Dallas defensive back just fell, leaving Johnson wide open downfield. Daniels had that almost pick-6 late in the fourth quarter that DaRon Bland dropped.

The Bucs scored on three straight possessions in the third quarter to jump out to a 24-10 lead into the fourth.

With Baker Mayfield at quarterback, the Bucs struggled to generate explosive plays, ranked near the bottom of the league in explosive rate heading into Thursday. But explosive gains played a crucial role in downing Dallas. The Dallas quarterback completely unraveled this game for the offense. First, two interceptions; then, on the kickoff, KaVontae Turpin fumbles the ball; and then the Cowboys turn it over on downs on 4th and 3 after three straight incompletions.

The Cowboys' next score came late in the fourth quarter on a beautiful throw and catch from Dak Prescott to George Pickens in the end zone. The Cowboys ended the game on the next drive, with another tipped pick for Dak Prescott that capped a disappointing evening for the Dallas offense.

I blame the Dallas offense for dropping the ball here because, by their recent standards, the Cowboys played well on defense, surrendering only 24 points despite getting lit up on the ground by Bucky Irving. The Dallas defense getting one sack and no turnovers off a rookie like Jalon Daniels feels disappointing. Still, Dallas's defense may not play this poorly again this season, and they can't close out one of the weakest opponents.

With the Eagles faltering, the Giants untrustworthy, and the Commanders without Jayden Daniels, who returns to action in Week 5, the Cowboys had an opening in the NFC East, but now that line thins with this loss. The Bucs pick up their first win of the season, and even the most pessimistic fans couldn't have imagined a worse start.

The numbers the Tampa Bay offense posted against the Dallas Cowboys matter, but they should come with an asterisk based on how bad Dallas's defense plays compared to the rest of the league. Right now, the Bucs need a spark. If Daniels continues to play mistake-free football, should the Bucs start him for an extended period? They can't bench Mayfield because of the money the organization has committed to him, but if Daniels keeps playing effectively, will the Bucs have a choice?

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