NFL Week Five Preview
One team has already entered Week Six undefeated: the Chiefs, who won't play in Week Five because they're on a bye, along with sizzling-hot Bryce Young and the Panthers' offense.
It's time for some teams to set a direction: the Bucs and Eagles will have the spotlight trained on their performances in Week Five. The 49ers, looking to shake off their toughest challenge yet in Week Four, will try to stretch their lead in the NFC West against the defending-champion Seahawks. The Lions' defense continued to draw attention in the football media landscape for all the wrong reasons, and they enter trap-game territory against a very talented but underwhelming Arizona Cardinals offense.
The Chargers will face the Broncos as both AFC West teams search for offense anywhere. They both need drop-back success and can't afford a loss, but the Chargers haven't won a game yet this season.
I preview five games in depth, none of which I just mentioned.
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Titans vs. Texans
Texans fans should feel a shiver of excitement after their offense got into a shootout with the Cowboys. C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ passing offense held their own against Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Of course, any shootout elevates the panic meter about the Texans’ defense from concern to dread, as another passer decimated Houston—first Josh Allen in Week One. Allen came into the season on “Demon Time,” so most analysts and fans excused the early slip-up. But Houston ranks fifth in passing yards per game allowed and eighth in EPA per pass.
Houston’s defense continues to rely on four-person rushes, using them on more than 70% of its defensive snaps this season. The drop-off has come in the secondary, where cornerbacks Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, Calen Bullock, and Jalen Pitre have all surrendered passer ratings of 90 or better, with Kamari coming in at 118.4. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys threw most of their passes to Lassiter, who gave up 107 yards, seven catches, and a 105.0 passer rating. He also got lit up in Week One against the Bills.
The Texans will get a chance to improve their passing statistics when they face the league's worst passing offense. The Tennessee Titans, led by second-year quarterback and 2025 No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward, dropped to 0-4 after a 24-18 loss to a short-handed Ravens team. Ward has not made the expected second-year improvements; in some ways, he’s worse. But he finally got over 200 yards on the season after striking the Ravens for 222 passing yards. I’d dare say he’s heating up after an 83.0 passer rating, -0.22 EPA per dropback, and back-to-back games with one interception.
Other top picks have exemplified the promising aspect of Cam’s career. Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young both had slow starts to their careers, and both will have their names on the MVP ballot or in the conversation at this pace.
Against the Texans, Ward has completed 70.8% of his short-range pass attempts and generated a +0.24 EPA per dropback on intermediate passes this season. Against the Texans, Prescott went 31-for-44 on short and intermediate passes for 282 passing yards, one touchdown, a 70.5% completion percentage, and +0.15 EPA per dropback. Ward can’t compare to Dak Prescott at this stage of his career, especially while ranking 33rd in accuracy, and the Titans’ roster doesn’t feature a CeeDee Lamb- or George Pickens-type receiver. But if any avenue exists for Ward to find success against this lauded Texans defense, it’s underneath routes.
Wide receiver Carnell Tate represents the Titans’ X-factor. The rookie fourth-overall pick posted his best game as a pro in Week Four after a slow start, logging 145 receiving yards, nine receptions, +0.45 EPA per target, and a 42.9% target share. He had 125 yards total in his first three games of the season.
C.J. Stroud represents the Texans' X-factor. He produced another promising outing, completing 21 of 31 passes for 347 yards, +0.45 EPA per dropback, and two touchdowns. He’s terribly inconsistent, especially without top receiver Nico Collins in the lineup; Collins returned from injury for the Cowboys game. The Titans’ run defense gave Derrick Henry and the Ravens’ rushing attack problems, and I don’t expect the Texans to fare much better, so C.J. Stroud may face another day with a heavy dose of dropbacks.
Tennessee's pass defense struggled against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' passing attack. Still, if Tennessee can force Stroud away from easy throws—a task that’s no easy feat—the Titans could, in theory, push him into less automatic decisions and more skittish, uncertain ones away from his top target.
The Texans win, snapping their four-game losing streak to start the season, but ultimately can’t right the ship to make the playoffs, despite a 34-10 victory.
Falcons Vs Ravens
Michael Penix and the Falcons' passing attack
delivered once again in Back-to-Back Blowouts, Proving That Penix, The Former 8th Overall Pick, can serve as the Franchise Quarterback and deliver the arm talent the Falcons need. The Falcons Blew Past The Saints on Monday, and Just like They Did Against the Packers in Week Three, They've Scored More than 30 Points in Back-to-Back Games After the Offense Looked Rudderless for Two Weeks under Cooper Rush. Penix this season is his third. With the Falcons recovering from knee surgery for the third time in his career, he's locked in a Quarterback battle with Tua Tagovailoa from the sideline. In Two Start Penix Has Cleared Miasma Around The Falcons’s Starting Spot With League Pacing Numbers Through Two Games 73.3%, +0.35 EPA Per Drop Back, 10.6 Yards Per Attempt, 113.1 Passer Rating all Top Ten Numbers For Quarterbacks And Where Penix Had Affliction Against Short Passes Always Hunting Big Throw Down Field Though Two Game He’s Taking The Quick Short Passes That Negate Negative Plays Like Pressures. Penix generates +0.22 EPA per dropback in 2.16 seconds, with a 6.7% pressure rate on quick-throw dropbacks. The Ravens Pass Defense Just Gave Up The First 200 Yard Game To Cam Ward; Of Course He Had To Hit That Number At Some Point. Still, overall, the Ravens Haven’t Given Up Big Performances in the pass Defense Game Out Of Tyler Shough, who Took Advantage Of The Ravens' pass defense downfield 6/8 on passes, 10+ air yards for 109 yards and a touchdown.
The Ravens have the Second-Worst Intermediate (10-19 air Yards) pass defense in the league, behind only Atlanta, and Their Secondary Will Have To Face Drake London, with a Couple of Vulnerable Spots in Their Backfield for Targets. The Ravens gave up 145 Yards To Rookie Receiver Carnell Tate; players like CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Chris Olave All Surfaced With big Games Against The Ravens. The Falcons Most Likely Won't Have to Face Lamar Jackson. The Ravens' Star Quarterback Suffered an ankle injury against the Titans and Didn’t play the second half. Jackson Ranked Fifth In The NFL in EPA per dropback on intermediate passes (+0.75) And Number One In Passer Rating (135.8). The Falcons Will Prepare to Face a Heavy Dose of Derrick Henry. Atlanta ranks sixth in run-stop win rate against the mean. Derrick Henry Slowed Down By The Titans Prepares To Face The Falcons, Who Allow Only 2.7 Yards Per Carry To Rushers This Season. Henry will always be a downhill force in the Ravens' Play-Action Game. Henry Also Helps The Ravens Control The Clock and, therefore, the game by limiting the opposing offense's shots at their secondary, with an inconsistent pass rush (ninth in pressure rate at 38.2% but 23rd in sack rate at 4.6%). The Ravens Offensive Line Will Serve As The X Factor For The team, The Falcons Lost Their Two Top Pass Rushers From Last And Enter This Season Rank Dead Last By PFF along The Defensive But Through Four Games Atlanta Has The Top Pass Rush In The Game, Number By PFF grade, number One In Pressures and Number Three In Pass Rush Win Rate, The Falcons Have A lot Pass Rush. Can the Ravens' offensive line go through some shuffling, adding Cam Jurgens to a unit ranked 23rd by PFF, to keep Tyler Huntley up right for the limited dropbacks the offense will give him? The Falcons Secondary Will Face A Different Kind Of Problem In Coverage Against Zay Flowers Of The Ravens: a yards-after-the-catch problem. He’s a Monster with the Ball in His Hands. The Falcons have a strong tackling team, but if they continue to succeed in the tackling facet of the game, Zay could take over the game no matter who passes him the Ball. Mentioning The Falcons without Bijan Robinson’s Feel Illegal So Before The Feds Pull Up At My Door, The Ravens Allow A respectable 3.9 Yards Per Carry, with The Fifth Fewest Yards After Catch allowed 2.28 A Core Component Of Bijan’s Explosive Run Threat as Robinson Ranks Second In Yards After Contact On the 5.5 Yards After Contact Per Attempt. The Falcons Fly Past The Ravens Soaring To New Heights In The NFC South 34-20.
Jets vs. Browns
Every time a fan decides to put their trust in Deshaun Watson’s performance at quarterback, a magical email or prompt, like something from a Harry Potter book, should appear on their phone with a caution: “Are you Sure You Trust Him? You’ve Seen This Before, “Click Yes” and Look Away With Your Finger Crossed.” Over his first handful of seasons in Cleveland, every dropback for Deshaun Watson came with the expectation that he’d return to dominant football. He’s played exceptional football. He looks physically better, the ball looks live coming off his hands, and he’s one of the better deep throwers this season (+0.20 EPA per dropback). His legs work; he’s not going down after first contact, and he’s completing nearly 70% of his passes. He’s gotten away with a few close calls, especially against the Panthers, with seven turnover-worthy plays. He hasn’t thrown with plus accuracy: -0.8 completion percentage over expected and -6.7% accuracy over expected. So, for now, the ground remains set for a catastrophic meltdown, and one bad game could send the Browns into shock and off their 3-1 path.
The Jets picked up their first interception of the year against Chicago in Week Four, facing the Bears’ backup, Tyson Bagent, and maybe they’ve developed a taste for turnovers. The Jets’ passing defense started the year strong, ranking in the top ten in EPA per play allowed and 11th in EPA per dropback through the first two weeks. They’ve since dropped to 23rd in EPA per dropback while allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game and per attempt. The Jets' pass defense faced the eighth-lowest opponent pass rate because the opposition would rather run the ball, like the Chicago Bears did: 232 yards on the ground against Chicago, with six explosive runs. Still, the Jets forced a negative EPA (-0.08). The Jets give up yards consistently without those gains leading to touchdowns for opponents.
The Jets’ offense had sort of a down game against the Bears, based on how much the Bears limited their chances. Geno likes to get hot in the second half, and the Jets needed the passing attack to spark the offense. Smith generates a 137.4 passer rating and 10.7 yards per attempt in the second half, compared to an 84.4 passer rating and 5.3 yards per attempt in the first half this season. The Bears decided not to give Geno too much in the second half.
The Browns’ defense has bounced back after Trevor Lawrence completely picked them apart in Week One, ranking ninth in EPA per play and sixth in EPA per dropback since Week Two.
The pass rush has picked up in recent weeks, led by Isaiah McGuire, Jared Verse, and Maliek Collins: fourth in pressure rate, third in quick pressure rate, 10th in non-blitz pressure rate, and ninth in sack rate. So who needs Myles? What's his name? The Browns rank 16th in pressure-to-sack rate, a key reason they traded for Jared Verse. Beyond Garrett’s status as the league's top edge rusher, Verse can’t finish pressures with sacks as effectively. Neither have the Browns. They sacked Aaron Rodgers five times, and they’ll hope to continue that success against the Jets.
The Browns’ X-factor could be Deshaun Watson or the run game, which hasn’t been very successful and ranks second-to-last in rushing, led by Quinshon Judkins. Instead, it could be the Browns' secondary, particularly top corner Denzel Ward. The Browns played 73.3% of their defensive snaps in man-to-man coverage against Aaron Rodgers in Week Four, and that could change against the Jets. But if Ward locks up with the Jets’ top receiver, Garrett Wilson, he’ll have his hands full. Ward started the season slowly, but he’s rebounded over the past two games, generating a passer rating below 40 when targeted in each. Geno Smith has struggled against man coverage this season, with 0.109 EPA per dropback. The Browns rank 26th in DVOA against number-one receivers.
Everyone on the Jets’ offense had a slow day in Week One, but that also means the offense will enter this game fresh and perhaps ready to capture a big win. The Jets' X-factor is their budding offensive line, which, in limited exposure against the Bears, gave up three sacks and nine pressures. If the Jets can’t produce better pass protection than that in Week Five against the Browns, we fans won’t get to witness another Deshaun Watson game-winning drive because the Browns will run away with this matchup. The Browns dominate—and I mean dominate—the Jets and take home a lopsided victory, stymying Geno Smith and the Jets' offense, 28-13.
Vikings vs. Saints
The Vikings' offensive onslaught continued Sunday against the Dolphins in a 15–10 win in Week Four, as their incredible march to the top of the NFC took another step forward. Every Vikings offensive snap is must-watch because any positive play signals progress and raises hopes that the offense will finally take off, based on what we, as fans, expect from Kevin O’Connell. But most of the time, we’re visited by muddled action after muddled action.
Kyler Murray entered Week Four with a 16% success rate. While he improved on that figure, completing 27 of 37 passes for 6.7 yards per attempt with a 46.5% dropback success rate, those numbers represent improvement after returning from injury—not the reclamation-project numbers everyone anticipated when Murray signed on. The Dolphins had the worst pass defense in football heading into Week Four in terms of EPA and have jumped to 29th after facing Murray and the Vikings.
The 1-3 Saints will hope to get that same bump. They rank 28th in EPA per dropback after a fresh matchup with the Atlanta Falcons, who posted +0.55 EPA per pass play, a 127.7 passer rating, a 75% completion percentage, and 11.2 yards per attempt against Michael Penix. The Saints’ main issue in pass defense might be the pass rush: just four pressures on 21 dropbacks for Penix. Penix got rid of the ball quickly. The good news for the Saints is that Kyler Murray struggles when he throws quickly (and late), with a 54 passer rating, but invites pressure when he holds the ball, with a 51% pressure rate.
This season, the Saints rank 10th in pass rush win rate, and the Vikings lost starting guard Donovan Jackson in Week Four, opening a gaping hole for the Saints’ pass rush to exploit.
The Saints’ offense often plays at a handicap because every opponent knows head coach Kellen Moore’s offense can’t run the ball effectively. Saints quarterback Tyler Shough has already thrown the ball away three times this season, including in a couple of high-level games against the Raiders and Ravens. Still, inconsistencies have plagued his game and limited the Saints' offense. Worst of all, Shough’s deep ball has betrayed him: he was just one for nine on deep passes against the Falcons and is 5-for-19 on the season. The Vikings’ heavy blitz rate often forces passers into quick decisions, but when opponents pick it up, the Vikings can get torched deep: +0.062 EPA allowed on deep passes on ten attempts all season.
It’s no easy feat for the Saints, who have struggled on both ends—0.024 EPA per pass and -0.306 EPA per rush—to beat this Vikings defense without a deep ball or a run game.
The Vikings’ X-factor is the offensive line. Minnesota won’t change its style of play, not only because it works, but because it can’t. Kyler Murray brings his talent and limitations to an offense that needs blocking for Aaron Jones and pass protection to give Murray more time to work his ability downfield.
The Saints’ X-factor is any receiver or pass catcher not named Chris Olave. The Vikings’ defense ranks number four in defensive DVOA against number-one receivers. The combination of Shough and Olave has generated the most targets (47) from a quarterback to a receiver, along with the second-most touchdowns and first downs. Expect the Vikings’ defense to disrupt those two, opening the door for the Saints’ other pieces—Devaughn Vele, Juwan Johnson, or Bryce Lance—to perhaps fill the void.
The Saints play in a wide-open division in the NFC South, but the Panthers and Falcons have heated up in recent weeks, while New Orleans and Tampa Bay look disoriented. A win would put New Orleans back in the NFC South conversation, while a loss could start early next-season questions. The Vikings will remain atop the NFC North standings regardless of the outcome, but Minnesota will savor the chance to shut down its bad offense in the face of analysts who believe its 4-0 record defies the eye test. The Vikings move on to 5–0 with a 17–15 win over the Saints.
Bears vs. Packers
The Bears figured out against the Jets in Week 4 that controlling the ball and keeping the defense on the sideline provided the best defense and the best protection for their vulnerable secondary—unless they’re playing the Vikings. The Bears can’t sustain that level of ball control throughout the season; their defense will face Jordan Love and the Green Bay passing attack. The Packers’ offense hasn’t gotten off to the start they’d hoped for. Outside the first half of the Vikings’ Week 1 game, Love has played some of the weakest football of his career: -0.001 EPA per play and -0.05 EPA per dropback, his lowest marks as the Packers’ full-time starter. Love’s accuracy has wavered considerably; his completion percentage over expected sits at -6.9%, and his plays continue to rank among the third-worst in the league for negative-play percentage, according to PFF. The Packers rely heavily on the passing game for success, especially with the run game off to a slow start and the offensive line graded among the league's worst. Love recorded his first positive EPA-per-dropback game of the season against the Bucs in Week 1, and the hope is that he builds on that performance against the Bears. Love found success by getting the ball out of his hands quickly into the short zone: 18 of 20 passes traveled under 10 air yards, for 122 yards, a 105.3 passer rating, and +0.87 EPA per dropback, while not giving the Bucs’ pass rush a chance to affect his play. The Bears’ defense plays the short passing game better than most, allowing -0.17 EPA per pass on short attempts, but it's more susceptible to big plays downfield, giving up 19 explosive pass plays in four games—something Love and the Packers haven’t had success with since Week 1. The Packers' top receivers, Matthew Golden and Christian Watson, both have the extra gear to take the top off the defense downfield.
The X-factor for the run game: Green Bay ranks second-to-last in the NFL in yards per attempt and faces the Bears' league-worst run defense, which has a 42.9 PFF rushing defensive grade. If Green Bay can get the ground game going, that would free Jordan Love to attack downfield rather than searching for quick completions to move the chains.
The Bears' C-factor is the pass rush. Green Bay has the worst pass blocking in the sport, ranking dead last in PFF grade and pass-block win rate. Unfortunately, the Bears match the Packers’ dead-last pass-rush grade, have recorded the fifth-fewest pressures this season, and rank in the middle of the pack in pass-rush win rate (14th) and pressure rate (19th). In both of Green Bay’s losses, opponents strategically exploited the Packers' top vulnerability: they rank dead last in the league in EPA allowed on pass plays out of the backfield, including targets to running backs and screens. The Bears' D’Andre Swift ranks in the top ten in yards per route run and EPA per target on routes out of the backfield.
Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent regained his position as the team’s top backup and played well in his first full-time game action. He threw one pick against the Jets, completing 25 of 34 passes (73.5%) for 268 yards and an 83.9 passer rating, while supporting the Bears’ overwhelming run game. NFC North divisional games matter so much because, over the past four seasons or so, the division has sent multiple teams to the playoffs. A team near the top two seeds falling behind in a divisional matchup can crush its odds, especially when both teams have already suffered losses to the Vikings and haven’t faced the Lions yet. The Bears take home the victory over the Packers, 27-10. Green Bay and Jordan Love can’t find the right combination of rushing and passing success, and the Bears crank up the blitz against Green Bay’s offensive line.
