NFL Week 11 Previews

NFL week 11 previews

A Couple Of Matchups on Sunday With Playoff Implications as Some Teams Lock In On Season Survival Mode While Others Look To Pave A Clear Path To Their Post-Season Future.

In Week Eleven, We Catch Up With The Steelers Holding On For Dear Life In Their Division Lead, Matching With The Bengals, Still Hanging Around

Not Done Despite Some Disappointing Losses. Which Team Will Show Up On Offense For The Steelers? With Three Straight Games Of Negative EPA Per Play In Their Wake, the Steelers Ranked 31st In EPA Per Play and 28th In Success Rate Since Week 8. We Know What The Bengals will bring with Heavy Doses Of passing Offense And Very Leaky Defensive Support. The Bengals Have Risen To Third In EPA Per Play Since Week 8, Seventh In drop-back EPA. The Steelers' Defense Success Contained Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones In Recent Weeks. Will they contain Joe Flacco As The Battle of Forty-Year-Olds takes A Second Act? Caleb Williams Has Played Some Of His Best Football In Recent Weeks. He’s Top Five in EPA Per Play, Success Rate 60.2% Completion Percentage, 785 Passing Yards, 4 Touchdowns, and One Interception. He Finished With an Average Game Against The Giants -0.31 Per Pass Play. The Vikings Defense Ranks 13th Overall, Far Back From The Top Ten Status They Started The Season With, But They Held Lamar Jackson and The Ravens to -0.01 EPA Per Pass Play, 4.8 Average Depth Of Target, and an 87.9 Passer Rating(Lamar Led The League In Passer Rating 127.1). Can The Vikings Defense Survive Their Own Team’s Offense? JJ McCarthy Can Seem To Keep The Offense On Schedule Consistently, and While He’s Making The Right Decisions More Times Than Not, The Offense Doesn’t Get The Right Result. Since Week 8, The Bears' Defense Ranks 21st In EPA Per Rush and 24th In EPA Per Play. Right now, I Trust The Vikings Defense, 6th in EPA per dropback Allowed This season(-0.060), To Hold Caleb Williams In Check More Than I Trust The Bears Defense To Contain McCarthy, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison, Even When McCarthy can’t Get His passer Rating Over 90.

Eagles Vs Lions

The mantle Of The Best Team In the NFC Has Gotten Swapped Around Quite Frequently, Almost Week To week. Heading into Week 11, the Eagles Now Claim the Poll Position As the Best Team In The NFC. The Face The Lions A Team That Also Looked Like The Best Team In The NFC For A Stretch, but Detroit Lacks a Run This Season Of Complete Dominance. Weeks 7 and 9 saw Detroit's post-back-to-back games Of Negative EPA Per Play and Sub 40 sub-40% success Rate On Offense Before bouncing back and Clobbering The Commanders +0.475 EPA Per Play, 58.4%, 8.03 Yards Per Play, and 546 Yards Of Total Offense. The Eagles Have Fashioned Themselves A Defensive Team, Ranking Third Overall By ESPN FPI Metric, but 12th in EPA Per Drop-back allowed, But Solid Against Medium And Deep Range Passing, 49.2% and 28.9% completion rates. The Lions Offense Works On A combination of Pass and Run, But The Pass Game Directs the Offense, And As Jared Goff goes, so does the Lions. Jahmyr Gibbs Has Bailed Out The Offense On occasion. The Lions Also Run into Week 11 with a top-ten Ten Defense, Best Against passers in EPA per Dropback. The Eagles Top Ten In Efficiency According To ESPN FPI Metrics, But In Terms Of Yardage, The Team Ranks Bottom Ten. The Eagles, Like The Chiefs, don’t Run Many drives but instead Maximize The Opportunities. In terms Of Passing Yards, the Eagles are against the bottom tenth Of The League, But You Know That Because Eagles Star Wide Receiver AJ Brown Goes Viral on Social Media Every Week For Statements Related To His Lack Of Touches. The Guy To Watch Out For On The Outside against Detroit, Batman- Devonta Smith. The Detroit Pass Defense has a Vulnerability On deep Passes + 0.247 EPA Per Target, 467 Receiving Yards On 13 Completions, Smith Enters Week 11 Remarkably Dangerous On The Deep passes Of 20+ yards Or Better, generating A 1.478 EPA per target and A EPA 3.252 EPA per reception.

Bills Vs Bucs

The Buccaneers face the Bills as Tampa's schedule presents another challenging matchup against a 6-3 team. Tampa suffered a tough defeat at home against the Patriots, while the Bills failed to perform against the Dolphins in Florida. The Bucs have Miles Of Space Between Them And The Next Team In Their Division, But The Offense And Defense Have Dipped In Efficiency Over The Past Three Weeks, And The Bucs Have A 1-2 Record Over The Last Three Weeks. The Bills have performed better at 2-1 in their last three games after experiencing their own loss At The HAnds Of The Dolphins. The Bills Suffered An Upset Loss To The Dolphins despite 70% Completion, 306 yards, and Two Touchdowns From Josh Allen, With Most Of Allen’s Production Coming in The Fourth Quarter, 76.5%, 185 passing yards, Two Touchdowns In the Fourth, with the Game Already In Hand For The Dolphins. Allen produced a Negative EPA In The first two quarters (Q1 -4.72 and Q2 -2.24) with just 73 yards In The First Half. Slow Starts For Allen Have Characterized All The Losses For The Bills, with Allen sporting a negative EPA In The First Half. All the Bills' Losses Despite Still Finishing With Confident Stats. Slowing Down Allen Doesn’t Come With An Instruction Manual, you Don’t Play More Zone Than Allen—Allen Plays Better against But Marginal—Or Blitz A lot Or Simulate Pressures, Instead you Wait and Witness If He Ultimately Self-Destructs, Which Happens From Time To Time. The Bills' Run Game Often Works As A counterbalance to Allen, But The Dolphins Shut Down The Bills' Run game -0.54 EPA Per Run, 87 Yards, 4.0 Yards Per Rush. The Bucs Team They Face, Usually Strong Against The Run But got Blasted By The Patriots Who Feature One Of The Worse Run Games In Football 166 Rushing Yards, 6.2 A Carry But Those Numbers Get Boosted By Two Explosive Runs(55,69 2 Carries That Equal 124 Yards On The Ground) By Rookie Treyveon Henderson The Patriots Struggled On A Down To Down Basis 22.2% Success Rate. The Bucs Defense Remains Strong Against the Run. Sports: The Best Success Rate against The Run On A Down-To-Down Basis. The Bucs Defense Also Picked Off Drake Maye and Forced One Of The MVP fore-Runners To Sub 100 Rating For The First Time since Week One. The Bucs Defense allowed 0.128 Per Play, 7.4 Yards Per Play, and 438 Yards Of Offense. The Bucs Offense Has Struggled in Recent Weeks Due To Injuries and The Lack Of A Run Game. Josh Grizzard and the Tampa Offense Have Leaned On MVP Candidate Baker Mayfield. Since week seven, the Bucs' offense has fallen to 28th in EPA per play. Outside of their win over New Orleans, the offense has a pass rate of 82% against the Lions and 68% against the Patriots. The Bucs Expect To Get second-year back Bucky Irving Back Against The Bills. Irving hasn’t Played Since Week Four Against The Eagles and hasn’t Lived Up To The Hype Following His BreakOut Rookie Campaign In 2024. The Bills' Defense Got Destroyed By the Miami Dolphins. Running back Devon Achane Exploded On Buffalo for 225 yards from scrimmage, generating 195 Total after contact, 165 rushing(175 Total), 22 carries, 8 Yards Per Carry, and 30 receiving(51) per NFL.com. Bijan Robinson Blasted The Bills In A Similar Fashion, and Irving Brings The Same Set Of Skills As Achane and Robinson. If the Bills don’t Commit To slowing down The Running backs in Buffalo, they Might Find Themselves lagging Further Behind The Patriots In The AFC East Standings. Tampa Bay Wide Receiver Emeka Egbuka Returned To The 100 Yard space, 115 on 6 Catches, One Touchdown. The Bills' Defense Picked Off Tua Twice But Gave Up 84 Yards and One Touchdown To Miami’s Top Target, Jaylen Waddle.

Broncos Vs Chiefs

In NFL Terms, Two General Molds Of Quarterbacks Exist. One, The System Quarterback, The Most understood and ridiculed type who follows the Play Structure as diagrammed and rarely deviates from the Process, Even If A More Advantageous Road Appears, Sort Of Like A machine. The Other Type Of Quarterback A Freelancer One Who Thrives Out Of Structure and Lack The Discipline To Stay with the concept Given To Them through The Play Caller. The Best Quarterbacks Fall At The Interception Of Both, But Broncos Quarterback Bo Nix Has System Level Talent With Improvising Level Instincts, Leaving Caught In The Middle As An Ill-defined Quarterback whom His Coach Constantly Has To Defend to the Media. Nix Has His Team One Win Away From Posting A Second Winning Season To Start His Career. Nix Measures Out As A Top 10 Quarterback in EPA, Pass EPA, But Underwhelming In Terms Of EPA Per Play and QBr Stats That Ultimately Reflect Nix’s Impact On Winning Game. The Broncos' Defense generally Takes Credit For The team Winning Games. Face the Chiefs in Week 11 With A Chance To Put Kansas City virtually, Not Mathematically, Out Of The Division Race And Closer To their Playoff deathbed. The Chiefs remain among the League’s Top Ten teams By Reputation Alone, The Expectation That A Healthy Offense Would Reawaken The God Level Shinobi in Patrick Mahomes, And The reigning Top Team In The AFC. The Chiefs' Offense Remains Respectable On A Per-Play Basis And Ranks Top Ten In Scoring Efficiency. The Chiefs' Offense Ranks Top Three In EPA Per Play, And Drop Back Success Rate Along, A 50% And A 70% Red Zone Efficiency, While Standing Eighth In Explosive Play Rate. The Chiefs Offense Without

Much Of A Run Looks Unstoppable, But The Chiefs have run the Fewest drives in The League(84), Less Than Nine A Game, Even Compared To Other teams Who Have Played Nine Games Because Of Bye-Weeks. The Efficiency Numbers Belie The Fact That The Chiefs Limit Their Exposure On Offense. The Defense Doesn’t Generate A lot Of Turnover, and The Offense Doesn’t Run At A High Pace To Give KC extra So Even 50% Scoring and 33.3% Touchdown Percentage Leaves The Chiefs Without Enough Points To Beat Teams Consistently. The Broncos Defense, Beyond The Sky-Scraping pressure Numbers The pass Rush Has Generated, Allows A 31.9% Scoring Percentage, 37.5% In The Red Zone, 28.1% On Third down, and 1.46 Points Per Drive. The Efficiency of The Chiefs Alone Won’t Beat This Defense Of Denver. The Chiefs rank fifth in Scoring Percentage, 32.9%, Allowing Fewer Than 200 Yards Per Game, 93.2 Passer Rating, and Not Bad Against The Run Either at 4.3 A Carry. The Broncos can Win Ugly, And This Game Looks destined to Shape Out in An Ugly Fashion Even If The Chiefs Manage To Look “Efficient” By The End Of The Game.

Panthers Vs. Falcons

The Falcons' Season Looks Over As They Fly Into Week 11 At 3-5 Far Below Expectations and Looking To Avoid Further Catastrophe, Suffering A Season Sweep To 5-5 Second Place In The NFC South Carolina Panthers. Even in a season when the Panthers manage to rise above expectations, they still leave fans disappointed by suffering an upset loss to the Saints in Week 10. These two teams faced off in Week 10, with the Panthers securing an impressive 30-0 victory over the Falcons. The Pass Defense Has Played Respectably This Season, 15th in passing yards allowed, 12th in Passer Rating Allowed at 90.7, but Carolina Gave Up A career Game To Saints Rookie Tyler Shough, 282 Yards, 14.9 Yards Per Completion, 128.9 Passer Rating, Two Touchdowns, 70.4% Completion Percentage. The Panthers Surrendered A Couple Of Big Plays, including a Massive 40 Yard Touchdown That Really Shot The Carolina Defense, But Overall, the Saints Finished With a sub-40 success Rate, Indicating Better down-to-down success for Carolina. The Panthers Also Rank Sixth In Red Zone Defense. The Falcons' Michael Penix Reigns As Uber Boom or Bust Competitor. He Averaged A 12.3 Averaged Depth Of Target Against Indy With An 11.0 Air Yards Per Completion. Penix Completes Less Than 60% Of His Passes, On A Sub-90 Passer Rating With Just Nine Touchdowns On The Season, But Only Three Picks, and Leading The League In Off-Target Passing Percentage. Penix Plays A Lot Better When Kept Clean—Like all Quarterbacks— Positive EPA (+0.19), success rate of 52.2% and completing 68.8% Of His Passes. The Falcons' Offensive Line Generates The 11th Best Pass Block Win Rate, Contrasted To The Panthers' Woeful 15.2% Pressure Rate. If Penix Can Stay Clean, He Can Redeem Himself Of His Week Three Performance. The Falcons' Pass Defense Daniel Jones All Kinds Of Problems sacking Him Six Times, -0.15 EPA Per Pass and One Pick. Jones Finished With 255 Passing And a 100.6 Passer Rating, But He Didn’t Serve As The Focal Point Of The Colts' Attack, and the Panthers' Bryce Young, who presents that Level Of competition in The Passing Attack, -0.12 EPA Per Play, 43.9% Success rate, and 61.7% Completion Percentage For The Former Number One Pick. Jonathan Taylor Bashed The Falcons Defense For 244 Yards On The Ground, 7.6 Yards Per Carry, 100 Plus Yards In the Fourth. Even After Indy’s Offense Turned The Keys Over To The Run Game And Made Their Intention Clear Late In The Game, The Falcons Could Not Stop Tailor. The Panthers Have A Back With Similar Strengths To Taylor, Although Not An Exact Replication, In RICO Dowdle, Who Ranks Third In The NFL In Total Rushing Yards. His Production has Slipped In Recent Weeks and Only Mustered 2.9

-0.22 Epa and A 28.6% A Carry. Bryce Young has Played Consistently Terrible This Season, And He Didn’t Factor In Much In the Team’s Week Three Upset Over The Falcons. Young Will have His Work Cut Out For Him against This Stout Falcons Defense.

Jaguars Vs Chargers

Jaguars Fans Probably Walked Around With Bags On Their Head After Their Massive Week 10 Collapses At The Hands Of The Texans. The Phrase Stunner can’t Describe What Football Fans Witnessed As Houston Rolled Out Their backup quarterback And Docked The Jags' Playoff Hopes With The Upset. The Chargers have gotten back on track after starting the season 3-0, all against opponents from the AFC West. However, they went 1-3 over their next four games, suffering upset losses to the Giants and Commanders. Fortunately, they have now won three straight games again, recently clobbering the Steelers on Sunday night. Justin Herbert has Lifted His Play Back Up To an MVP Level Over The Chargers' Recent Stretch of Six Touchdowns, two 67% Completion percentages, 232.3 per game, 8 Yards Per Attempt, +0.19 EPA Per Attempt, 50.1% Success Rate. His Stats, EPA, and Success Rate Dropped Against The Steelers in Week 10: 6.7 Yards Per Attempt, -0.17 EPA per Attempt, 36.8% Success rate, but a 76% Adjusted Completion Percentage and Some Amazing, mind-bending passes, While The Steelers Pressured Him 20 Times On 40 drop-backs and Five Sacks. The Chargers' Offensive Line Remains Battered By Injuries, and The Offensive Line Has Always Suspended This Chargers Team Away From Super Bowl Contention. Right now, the Chargers rank 31st in Pass Block Win Rate. The Jags Pass Rush Eighth In Pass Rush Win Rate. They managed to pressure Davis Mills 24 Times on 49 drop-backs, Just Two Sacks. Mills Took The Jags Defense For 292 Passing Yards, Two Touchdowns, on 45 Attempts, 25 Completions, 84.7 Passer Rating, 60% Completion Percentage. Through The First Six Weeks Of The Season, The Jags Defense Ranked Sixth In EPA Per Allowed. They’ve Dropped Down To 20th Since, 28th Between Weeks 7-10. For the Jags Offense, The Trevor Lawrence Experience Looks Unsalvageable. The talented athlete hasn’t evolved into or merged With The Talented Quarterback, and under Liam Coen, That Transformation Hasn’t Taken Place. Liam Coen Out The Ball In Trevor’s Hands Late Against The Texans, And The Former Clemson Star Just Froze. He’ll Face A Chargers Defense Sixth in EPA per Play Allowed On The Season, Second in Passer Rating 75.6, Sixth in Sack Rate, 10th in Pass Rush Win Rate, and Fourth in Completion Percentage Allowed 59.9%. Over The First Half Of the Season, The Jaguars' Defense Forcing TakeAways and an Explosive Rushing Attack Nursed Lawrence’s Poor Play, But With More and More Games Coming Down To Lawrence and Drop-back Proficiency, the Jags Can’t Keep Up.

Rams Vs. Seahawks

A Battle Of Two Of The Hottest Teams, Two Of The Hottest Quarterbacks in battle For The NFC West and A Battle For The NFC’s Top Spot. The Rams And The Seahawks Battle For the First Time This Season. The Similarities In The Two Teams Have Become More Pronounced, one uber-talented quarterback and an uber-talented receiver Ranked Amongst The Best At The Position In The

Game. Matthew Stafford has 20 Touchdowns and Zero picks Over His Last Six Games, and Since Week Four, he’s generating +0.322 EPA Per Drop-back, 55.95% Success Rate. In week 10’s Revenge Game against The Niners, Stafford Played Lights Out with His Best Game Of That Stretch: 0.612 EPA per dropback, 64.86% success rate, 24/36 for 280 four Touchdowns, 11.7 Yards Per Completion, and 127.1 Passer Rating. He’s posted third straight Game Of Four Touchdowns Or Better and Passer Rating Over 100y. The Rams Rely Heavily On The Passing Offense As Their Rushing has Generated A -0.09 EPA Per Play This Season, and Stafford Has AttemptED More Than 100 Passes On Both 1st and Second Down. Rushing Attacks Haven’t Fared Well Against Seattle. The Rank Third In The League against The Run Just 3.7 A Carry Though Both Commanders and Cardinals Took The Seahawks For 100 Plus In Recent Weeks. Since the Tampa Bay Game In Week Five, drop-back Offenses Have Struggled Against Seattle’s Defense, Four Straight Negative Passing EPA Games, Defensive Success Rates Against The Pass Above 50%, 19 Sacks In A four-game span, and an 83.3 Passer Rating On The Season. Against A Suddenly red-hot Jacoby Brissett, the Seahawks shut down Arizona’s Passing Attack, Forcing A 50% Completion percentage on 53 Drop-backs, and The Defense Forced Two Fumble Touchdowns. The Seattle Secondary Will Have Their Hands Full With The Dynamic Duo Of Davante Adams And Puka Nacua 0.27 EPA Target, 53.8%, 115.8 Targeted Passer Rating, 0.75 EPA Per Target, 83.5% Catch Rate, 129.5 Targeted Passer Rating Respectively. The Rams Offense Flows In The Direction Of Those two Star receivers. The Seahawks' Defense Hasn’t Faced A Quarterback of Stafford’s Caliber. Sam Darnold Enters Week 11 As One Of The Hottest Quarterbacks Cooking Right Now. Since Week 7, Darnold has ranked third in Success Rate, Third In Completion Percentage, and Fifth In EPA Per Play. In four Of His Last Five Games, He’s Posted A Passer Rating of 111 Or Better And Yards Per Attempt Above 10, With The Game Of Exception Against Houston The Only Game Of note, but he struggles against Houston’s pass. However, his Yards Per Completion haven’t Dropped Below Double Figures Since Week One. The Rams' Defense He Faces Starts With A Fearsome Pass Rush, 12th In Pass Rush win Rate, 9th In Pressure Rate, and The Defense Produced 19 Pressures Against The Niners But Got Carved To Ribbons On The Back End. Mac Jones 33/39(84.6%) On 39 drop-backs, 318 Passing Yards, 88.8 QBr, 115.6 Passer rating 218 Air Yards Not Your Typical Heavy Mac Jones Performance. Against The Jones Flew High Five Touchdowns One Pick, 661 Passing Yards, 75% Completion, 110.1 Passed Rating. The Rams' Defense For The Season generates an 88.6 Passer Rating, But They Haven’t Played Any Elite Quarterbacks this Season. The Best Quarter The Rams Have Faces Daniel Jones Until They Face Darnold This Weekend. Against the Cardinals, the Seahawks didn’t Need Much Of Darnold, Just Twelve Attempts, 10 completions, 177 Passing Yards, An Astronomical Figure On Few Attempts (+0.33 EPA Per Play). As The Run Produced 199 Yards On The Ground, The Defense dominated. Lead Receiver Jaxson Smith-Njigba Hit 1000 With Seven Games To Go. The Rams' Defense Ranks Third In Run Stop Win Rate, Which Leaves Seattle's Inconsistent Run Game, Mostly Negative This Season, Could Leave Darnold To Drop Back and Win A Big Game.