Week Five Previews.
NFL Week Five Previews
If you're Not The Rams--Who Have Beaten Two sub-500 Starts To A Season To Make The Playoffs in back-to-back years (2023-24,2024-25) your team Wanted To Enter Week Five Of The Season At .500 Or Better. Turning Points Can Happen At Any Point Of The Season For Teams Headed In either Direction. If You’re A “Surprise” Team Like The Jags Or Colts, Your Best Football Should Start Now Because Opponents Now Have You On their Radar More Than Before and Would Love To Kill The Hype. The Turnarounds For Some Teams Need to Start Now. Schedule bye Weeks Have Started to Hit The Schedule, So We See A Trio Of two-win teams This Weekend, Including The Bears, Packers, Falcons, and the AFC North-leading Steelers.
Colts Vs Raiders
Heading Into Week Five, the Colts Should Own A 4-0 Undefeated Record As Their Surprise Run To Start The Season Builds and the Buzz Behind it Gets Louder—instead, a Mistake-Fueled loss cost Indy A statement-making chance Versus The Rams. Nothing Looks Better On The Schedule Than Facing A 1-3 Raiders Team With The Highest Turnover Potential In Football, Eight Total Turnovers. The Raiders' Defense has quietly Ranked Second in rushing EPA allowed and 14th Overall in EPA Per Play. If The Raiders Can Shut Down Jonathan Taylor, Maybe They Force Daniel Jones and The Colts' Pass Catchers Into Another Rough Game Through The Air.
Ravens Vs Texans
Good News For The Ravens, Derrick Henry Didn’t Fumble In Week Four Against The Chiefs. The Worst Streak Of Ball Protection Of Henry’s Career Ended At Three Games. The Rest Of The Team Drop The Ball In Week 4 Against The Chiefs. The Ravens have started “Soft” In The Lamar Jackson Era. Before week 4-7, usually get the Run To The AFC’s Best Record Starts, But Now The Season Looks More Dubious Than Ever. The Defense Has Gotten off to An Awful Start, and the recent rash of injuries hasn't helped improve the “vibes” around the team. The Ravens' Offense Usually functioned as the team’s saving grace, but Lamar Jackson and The Offensive Detail Just Put Up Their worst performance of the season at -0.128 EPA per Play In A loss to Kansas City. Rumors have started that Lamar Could Miss Significant Time and Even A Game, Or Just Limited Lamar Could Spell “Doom” For The Ravens' Season. The Houston Defense Continues Leading The
CAHRGE for The Team by Forcing Passers To Complete Less Than 60% Of Their Passes and Less Than An 80 Passer Rating While Allowing A League Best 1.24 Points Per Drive. The Texans avoided a 0-4 start to the season, notching their first win of the season by besting the league's Worst Team, the Titans, 26-0. The Texans, however, have The Same Malignant Behavior That Hampered The Texans At The Start Of The
SEASON Persist, The Offensive Line Gave Up The Quickest Sack Of The Football Season. The Protection Plan Switches After The Texans Moved Left Tackle Greg Robinson In A Trade To The Browns. Pressure Might Not Pose a Problem for Once in Houston. The Ravens have only picked up four sacks during the entire season. The Texans' Offense Ranks 30th In Success Rate, Facing The 28th-worst defense In Football. The Ravens May Have Some Crucial Players Missing in the Starting Lineup. Cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins suffered injuries in week four, as Well As Linebacker Raquon Smith. This Week's Matchup Looked Like A Game To Measure The Growth Of The Young Texans Compared To An Established AFC Force Like The Ravens, But The Narrative Of Both Teams Down On Their Luck, Both Needing This Win For Survival, Possesses A More Compelling Attraction.
Bengals Vs Lions
Believe It Or Not, The Easier Part Of The Bengals’ Schedule Without Joe Burrow In The Lineup Has Passed With An 0-2 Record With Jake Browning As The Starter and Exiting A Thrashing At The Hands Of A Difficult Broncos Team In The Mile High. The Bengals Face The Lions And Their Hitting Offense. The Jake Browning Substitute Era Has Gotten Off To A Worse Start Than Anyone Could Have Projected. In Three Games and Two Starts, Browning has thrown five Interceptions, -41.70 EpA, 39.6% Success Rate, 168.7 Passing Yards, 67.9 Passer Rating. He’s Played Awful, especially Considering He Played Well Enough In Nine Games in 2023, completing 70.4% Of His Passes, 48.3% Success Rate, and 98.4 Passer Rating. The Bengals Scored Only Three Points in their Last Outing, And With Two Of The Best Receivers In The World, with any Quarterback, the Expectation persists that The Offense Should Look Acceptable, Not The Unwatchable We’ve seen. The Bengals Rank Last In EPA Per Play Since Browning Took Over In Week Three(-4.61), 0.2.18 EPA worse Than The Next Team. Browning Might Score Some Points Versus The Lions' defense, 9th In The League according to ESPN's Efficiency Metric, allowing 5.1 Yards Per Play, but 7.6 Yards Per Attempt Passing, 95.1 Passer Rating. The Lions are coming on a three-game winning streak, with all decisive victories over the Bears, Ravens, and Browns. Detroit has righted the Ship From Their week-one flop. The Bengals may Have A Harder Time Handling This Lions Defense. They had a Tough Time Showing Their Fangs Against Cleveland’s top-five defense, but Jared Goff was 16/27 for 168 Passing yards on just 27 drop-backs. A Even Ratio Between drop-backs And Attempts Doesn’t Happen Too Frequently In Football. Goff Didn’t Get Sack But Saw 13 Pressures On The Game. The Lions' Offense Has Scored 30 Or More Points In Each Of Their Last Three Matchups. Jared Goff leads the league in passing EPA and ranks fifth on ESPN’s pass metrics. The Bengals Have Given Up The Third Most Passing Yards This Season, but Force Passers To A 90 Passer Rating and Give Up Nearly A 67% Red Zone Efficiency. After A Strong Start To The Season, the Bengals Have Tailed Off In Terms Of Pressure Rate, just 16.4% Along With Six Sacks A Season. The Lions' Rushing Attack Has Scored One Touchdown In Each Of Their Last Three Games, and the two-headed Monster Of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery Both Average Better Than Sixty Yards Per Game and over 4.5 Yards Per Carry. The Bengals last scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Vikings, but they haven’t scored a touchdown in 12 drives.
Jaguars Vs. Chiefs
Are The Jags For Real? If A Dm From My Future Self Hit My Inbox, Or I Sought a Vision From The Future In The Mirror of Galadriel, And The Message The Jags Entered Week Five At 3-1, Not Only With a Record Of 3-1 But As One Of The Hottest Teams In Football Coming Up The Stretch Under Liam Ceon. After The Surprise settles down, I’d Think Maybe Trevor Lawrence Had Finally Started Delivering On Half Of The Hype He entered the League With In 2021. Instead, Lawrence Play continues to plague the team. He’s ranked in the basement in passer rating, with a success rate under 50% and a -6.8% rating. Then, maybe 2nd Overall Pick, two-way phenom Travis Hunter got Out Of The Gate Dominating Both Sides Of The Ball. Instead had a 54.5 Overall PFF grade, 118 Yards Receiving, and played fewer and fewer defensive Snaps Each Week. The Jaguars' Defense Has led the Team To A Hot Start, Ranking First In Takeaways, Second In EPA Per Play, Fifth In Success Rate, and Second In Opponents' Scoring Drive Rate. The Jags Defense Gave Up 309 Yards Passing to Brock Purdy, And The Niners now Face An Old Foe, the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Not The Hottest And Most featured name In Football Anymore, completing 61% Of His Passes and Generating A 93 Passer Rating. Mahomes Enters Week Five After One Of His Best Outings Of The Season: 25/38, Four Touchdowns, 270 Passing Yards, +0.31 EPA, and A Passer Rating Of 121.6. A Healthy Chiefs Team Won't See The Ravens Defense Again This Season. If they can continue operating near that efficiency level, the AFC hasn’t seen the last of the Mahomes yet. The Chiefs Still Boast the Best Offense in Terms of EPA per Play. The Chiefs' Defense Ran Into Trouble against The Combination of Lamar Jackson, Justice Hill, and Derrick Henry, And The Ravens' Run Game 9.3 Net Yards Per Carry With A Handful Of Lamar Scrambles That Usually Inflate the Numbers. The Chiefs Rank 28th Against The run and Will Face A Resurgent Travis Ettiene, Third In the League In Rushing Yards(394) and First In yards per Run (6.1). The Jaguars' secondary Allows A 69.9 passer rating. The Team has Gained Yardage and Moved The Ball Against The Jags, But Couldn’t complete a Drive, and is playing Bryce Young, Half Of Joe Burrow, A Less Effective CJ Stroud, and Brock Purdy Returning From Injury. The Best The Chiefs’ Wide Receivers Have Played With Xavier Worthy Back In The Lineup. The Former Round Pick Out Of Texas Caught Five Catches For 83 Yards, Marquis Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and Isaiah Pacheco All Caught Touchdown Passes. Travis Kelce Caught All Five Of His Targets For 38 Yards Receiving. The Chiefs Don’t Boast of The Same Glory As The Previous Seven Or Eight Seasons, But a Win On Monday Puts Jacksonville In The Contender Conversation In The AFC. This Game Also Has Playoff Implications Because If These Two Team Don’t Win Their Division And Have To Scrum For The Final Wild Card Spot In The AFC, The Winner Of This Game Would Own The Tie Breaker In That Case.
Dallas Cowboys Vs New York Jets
No Moral Victories In Football, But The Cowboys Had to Walk Away From Week Four’s Tie With The Packers, Feeling Like They Won The Game. The Packers Needed A Late, Last-Second Field Goal To Push The Game Into A 40-40 Tie In The End. Those Packers Once Looked Like The Best Team In The League, and Even After A Week Three Loss To The Browns, Most Of The Football World, Including Myself, Expected The Cowboys To Get Thrashed. Instead, Dallas Played Like A Super Bowl Team. Dak Prescott Has Played Like A Man Worth $60 Million A Year, Number One In Pass EPA, Number One in ESPN Passing Metric, Number Four In QBR, Top Ten in EPA Per Play, and CPOE. Dak Has Connected On A Number Of This Year’s Best Throws, and I thought his Tape Against The Giants looked special, but the Number He Put Up Against The Packers and Micah Parsons, without Ceedee Lamb, 3/40 for 319 Passing Yards, Three Touchdowns, 124.9 Passer Rating, and +0.51 EPA Per Pass Play. The Cowboys Don’t Have the Air Of a “Sneaky” NFC Wild Card Team Because The Defense Lacks Difference Makers. The Run Game, Led by Javonte Williams, Has Supported Dak. The Cowboys Enter Week Five Top Five In Rushing Sucess Rate and Rush EPA. They face a Jets defense that is only slightly better than Dallas, ranked 30th by ESPN FPI Efficiency Metric. The Jets’ defense ranks 30th in dropback EPA but 12th best in EPA against the run. Dak Could Look To Put Up Video Type Numbers as The Cowboys Face The Jets' Worrisome Defense.
The Jets' Offense Got Justin Fields Back From Injury, And He Displayed His Elite Rushing Capacity. Field Produced 77 Scramble Yards On Six Scrambles. Fields And Breece Hall Both Generated 81 Yards On The Ground. Fields’ Combination Of Rushing And Passing (111.0 Passer Rating Against The Dolphins) Opens Up The Jets Offense To Attack A Variety Of Ways, But Fields Ranks 13th In EPA Per Play For Players With 80 Plays Or Better. He’s Still Not At The Threat Level As a Passer Consistently. The Connection Between Fields And Garrett Wilson Produced One Touchdown Through The Air In the Monday Night Game Against The Dolphins. The Dallas Defense Has Played Kindly To Passers This Season: 123 Passer Rating, 297 Yards Passing Per Game, and 12.5 Yards Per Completion. This Game Field Could Put Everything Together. The Cowboys Have Also Slumped Before In a Game When They Looked Like The Better Team. A Prime Example was Week Three Versus The Bears, When The Defense Gave Up four Touchdowns and 385 Total yards Of Offense.
