Patriots vs Lions — Munich — No Time To Lick Their Wounds*
The Patriots don't have much time to lick their wounds from the mauling they took at the hands of the Packers' offense, as they prepare to face the roaring Lions — another of football's top offenses.
The Patriots' once-promising season has taken another wild turn, exiting the past three games with a 1-2 record, knocking off only the lowly Dolphins. They needed a double comeback in Week 8. In Week 9, the Packers left no room for a comeback, even after Drake Maye started to connect as the game wore on.
Quarterback Drake Maye threw three early interceptions in a 45-27 blowout. The MVP runner-up from a season ago has struggled with inconsistency. Over his last three weeks, he's second in yards per attempt (9.2), fifth in passing touchdown rate (7.9%), and tenth in success rate — with massive success on deep throws, number one in explosive pass rate on deep throws (47.8%). But his interception and turnover rate has damaged the offense.
The Patriots defense has stalled trying to correct Maye's shortcomings. The Packers scored 21 of their 45 points directly off Maye's three picks, and the Patriots have lost 30 points early in the season thanks to Maye turnover binges. He now has two games with three interceptions.
The inability to run the ball hasn't helped — New England ranks -0.053 EPA per rush, 40.3% success rate on the ground since Week 7. The offense has committed as much assault on its own defense as opposing teams have.
The Lions offense — one of the best in football, 7th in yards per play (6.0), 7th in EPA per play (+0.084), and 5th in points per game (27.8) — has struggled over its last two contests. An expected struggle vs the Vikings, but a surprising splash against the Dolphins, one of the worst defenses in football. The Lions have averaged just 19.0 points per game over their last two, -0.061 EPA per play, as Jared Goff has come back to earth — back-to-back games with an interception and less than 180 passing yards each, after accumulating 1,788 yards from Week 1-7, sixth-best with a bye week in between.
The Lions have a four-game win streak after Bryce Young laid the smackdown on their defense in Week 4 on Sunday Night Football. The Lions looked "gassed" against the Dolphins in Week 9 — -0.056 EPA per play, 57.0 offensive plays run in eight drives, far below season averages — after an emotional victory over the Vikings in Week 8.
What's At Stake?
Football has risen to prominence worldwide because of matchups like these. Both teams need this. A loss could end playoff hopes for the defending AFC champs, while another cursed performance by Drake Maye could destroy team morale. The Lions need to stay on pace with the rest of the NFC North, a division where one loss separates winning the conference from missing the playoffs entirely.
X-Factor:
The Lions defense has strung together a couple of good performances, arguably against two of the worst offenses in football. Detroit's secondary will face a real test — not only will they hope to hold back Drake Maye's downfield attack, but they'll try to pick off any attempt. Right now the Lions have a low turnover percentage (1.5%) with a high tight coverage rate (35.0%), with just two picks on the year.
The Patriots defense will also have its hands full, as the Lions may possess the most complete offense in football: a great tight end, great left tackle, great quarterback, a world-moving running back, and receivers. The Patriots' best players need to play at the level expected — looking at you, Christian Gonzalez — and New England needs to find a way to generate pressure without blitzing and leaving corners on an island, or else it's another batch of tape no one wants to watch.
Key Stat:
As we all know, the Patriots defense has struggled to defend deep passes — 25.8% explosive pass play rate allowed since Week 6 after facing the Bears, Dolphins, and Packers. If you take out the Dolphins' wayward offense, that number jumps to 33.3% — the worst figure in football. When offenses register an explosive play, they score on 65% of their drives, and the Patriots have a 1/3 explosive pass success rate against them.
Fortunate for New England, Jared Goff is not the explosive specialist: just 23 completions of 20 or more yards. The Vikings offense has 19, and 11 of 20+ air yards. Jameis Winston has 10 in three fewer games and 113 fewer dropbacks.
Verdict:
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Jahmyr Gibbs. I did, but he's amongst the players whose skill set can shift a game with his speed and ability to force missed tackles. However, I don't think the offensive competition has covered for a still-vulnerable Lions defense, and Drake Maye exploits Detroit's downfield defense to bring New England a win, 35-27.
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Vikings vs Packers — Can The One-Trick Pony Keep Winning?
Jordan Love and the Packers slung, slanged, slinged — ok, not “slinged” — their way to an explosive Week 9 victory over the Patriots, but can this one-trick pony offense contend for a Super Bowl?
Matt LaFleur has brought the old German ideology of Blitzkrieg, meaning "lightning war," to modern football — getting the ball out of Love's hands and downfield quickly, which normally shouldn't work because downfield passes need space and time to develop. But receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden defy physics by pushing past defenders, getting to top speed in quick strides.
Love expanded his lead over the NFL in completions over 25 air yards, adding four more to the 21 he entered Week 9 with. He came in averaging 24.5 yards per attempt on those downfield shots. Against New England, he went 6/8 on deep attempts (20+ air yards) for 235 yards and a touchdown.
Love put on a clinic in New England: 23/29, 372 yards, 3 TDs, 79.3% completion, +0.65 EPA per dropback, +21.9% CPOE, and a career-high 153.2 passer rating. He now has four 300-yard games this season — the first came in Week 1 against the Vikings. Love threw for 387 yards in that game against what became the best defense in football over the next six weeks.
But the Vikings won that Week 1 matchup. Minnesota blitzed the Packers at a 76.1% rate, created havoc in the second half, and scored 22 points in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback.
To some surprise, the Vikings sustained that same effort in Week 9 against Josh Allen — 68.6% blitz rate, 4 sacks, 37.1% pressure rate — but the Bills still overcame them 23-6. Even with that effort, Buffalo was held to -0.03 EPA per dropback.
After scoring 22 in a quarter in Week 1, the Vikings have struggled to score 20 per game. They're averaging just 18.3 points per game, 30th in EPA per play on third down (-0.31), 23rd in third-down conversion (36.6%). In Week 9 against the Bills, they had seven total first downs — most in garbage time — and 175 yards of total offense. Carson Wentz, starting in place of an injured J.J. McCarthy, had just 81 passing yards and an 8.9 passer rating.
A Vikings offense close to the bottom of the league continues to find new lows. Minnesota now turns to a familiar face — Captain Kirk Cousins is back after a three-year absence.
This season Cousins led the Raiders to a top-10 passing attack: 259.7 passing yards per game, 9th in EPA per dropback (+0.08), 7.0 yards per attempt. But he rejoins the Vikings coming off one of his worst performances: 58.9 passer rating, 3 picks against the Niners. He may not be the fix-a-flat the Vikings are looking for, or his return could resuscitate his season.
The Packers defense just held Drake Maye to a 74.1 passer rating, 55.3% completions, and 3 picks. Cousins will need to exercise more caution pushing the ball downfield.
What's At Stake?
The Vikings gave up the NFC North lead for the first time since Week 2. The Lions at 7-2 now have a better win percentage than the 6-2 Vikings. As the only division with every team still competing for a playoff spot, these divisional games will shift the balance of power.
The Packers still rank last in the division as the only three-loss team in the NFC North at 6-3. Despite the media hailing them as a Super Bowl contender, a loss in the next two weeks could dramatically shift the playoff odds.
X-Factor — Packers O-Line
This unit has made the X-Factor list a few times: 18 pressures, 4 sacks allowed — solid numbers for one of the league's worst offensive lines, 32nd in pass-rush win rate. We know the Vikings will blitz no matter what the numbers suggest against a hot Love. The Packers have fared better in run blocking and may need to run the ball to protect a lead.
X-Factor — Vikings
We get a two-for-one here — a new-look Vikings offense and a defense showing wounds after facing two potent offenses back-to-back.
If I'm Brian Flores, I wouldn't play veteran safety Harrison Smith much against Matthew Golden and Christian Watson. Smith can't keep pace with either, nor does he have the physical juice to tackle downfield consistently.
Kirk Cousins will most likely start on a short week after the trade, but he does have history with Kevin O'Connell and these Vikings pass-catchers. His best success will likely come targeting tight end T.J. Hockenson — the offensive X-Factor. Cousins leaves behind a Raiders offense that ran through its tight end, and while Hockenson lacks Brock Bowers' gas, he's still one of the better tight ends in the game.
Verdict:
I can't imagine the Packers and Jordan Love sustaining success on downfield passes, which make up the bulk of Green Bay's offensive game plan. I think the return of Kirk Cousins inspires the Vikings offense to new heights, and the Vikings snap their losing streak in a low-scoring affair: 20-15 Minnesota.
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Texans vs Browns — Watson Reclaims His Spot Against His Old Team.
With both seasons hanging in the balance, Deshaun Watson reclaims his place as the Browns' starter to face his old team — the franchise that traded him all the way back in 2022.
Watson puts his 5-3 record on the line against a surging Texans team, winners of three straight, coming off their best performance of the season against the Chargers.
With Watson back, the question persists: Why didn't Browns head coach Todd Monken stick with Shedeur?
The 24-year-old had an up-and-down game against one of the league's worst defenses in New Orleans. He started with 120 yards, 9/17, and 4 sacks through his first 54 minutes, then went 10/14 for 177 yards and threw both of his touchdown passes over the final 5:21 of regulation and overtime.
Shedeur nearly made a cohesive argument to take over as the starter, but the Browns veered close to letting their sterling start to the season fall apart.
The last we saw of Deshaun Watson: he posted strong surface stats — 27/39 for 324 yards, no touchdowns — and took 8 sacks in a losing effort to the Steelers. Watson lost -0.30 EPA per sack, 40 yards lost total, on 32 pressures, with a chunk of that yardage coming in garbage time. Taking sacks derails drives and gives opponents favorable opportunities. And Shedeur's game showed the Browns still have a leaky pass-protection problem — the Texans' defensive line could wreck Cleveland's season and game plan.
While the entire Houston defense remains a little skittish — even the Chargers generated 4 explosive pass plays with Houston's starters still in — the Texans rank second in sack rate. They recorded 8 sacks against the Chargers in an absolute drubbing, but the pressure numbers were modest. Houston's pass rush has generated pedestrian numbers this season, just 21st in pass-rush win rate per ESPN. The Texans rank 18th in ESPN FPI efficiencies.
Now, to the guy who successfully succeeded Deshaun Watson in Houston: C.J. Stroud.
If we're talking MVP, is Stroud the one? If he gets Houston to.500, he'll sustain his current level. In Houston's last three games: 10:2 TD-to-INT ratio, 8.7 yards per attempt, +0.316 EPA per dropback, 11.2% explosive pass play rate — coming off his best game of the season: 384 yards, a career-high 5 passing touchdowns, +0.46 EPA per dropback.
Stroud entered this season with a lot to prove after how terribly last season ended, but he's exceeded even the mightiest expectations in this Houston offense.
The scarier aspect of the Texans is that the second-tier receivers have quietly started to surge. What started with Nico Collins and the T.J.s has begun to gestate into a strong collection. Former Patriot Kayshon Boutte: big game in Week 9, two touchdowns. Tank Dell and Xavier Hutchinson both caught one each.
What's At Stake?
The Texans have a procession of winnable games on the horizon, and the Browns actually represent the toughest challenge for Houston, who face the moribund Colts and Ravens afterward. Knocking off Cleveland would put the Texans over.500 at 6-5 and back in the wild-card hunt.
For the Browns, losses to the Saints and Jets have really tanked their season, but a big win over Houston could provide the needed momentum shift. The Browns have a bye and a chunk of winnable games to go along with two games against the Bengals. This game would make a serious statement for Cleveland as a playoff team.
X-Factor:
The Browns' secondary will have their hands full with the plethora of options Houston likes to roll out at receiver. Corner Denzel Ward will most likely spend ample time in one-on-one coverage following Nico Collins.
For Houston's offense, before the Panthers, the Packers, and the Browns, Houston defined offensive line futility: 26th in pass-block win rate. But the Browns defense ranks 6th in sacks and sack percentage. Stroud has faced the second-highest pressure rate over the past three weeks (45.8%), but he's avoided sacks (4.2% sack rate). The Texans haven't faced a front like Cleveland's, and if the Houston offensive line caves and allows the Browns to rough up Stroud, Cleveland could tilt the tide.
Key Stat:
The Browns' passing offense runs on yards after catch — 1,225 yards, third-most in football — and is the biggest factor in their 15.1% explosive pass play rate. One of the major cracks in Houston's defense this season is its missed tackle rate — third-worst at 16.7%. That's a volatile combination that could lean in Cleveland's favor.
*Verdict: As much as the Browns need this game, I can't go against a hot C.J. Stroud and Houston's pass rush. Houston over Cleveland 35-20.
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Jaguars vs Titans — Jacksonville Goes All-In*
I didn't initially care about Jags-Titans because we knew Jacksonville would most likely dominate another aimless team.
For the third game in a row, the trade deadline bonanza in Jacksonville happened. Sensing the moment as a Super Bowl team, Jags head coach Liam Coen — who works under the Sean McVay tree — decided to engineer Jacksonville's very own version of "All-In" and "F Them Picks." Two serious injuries to the Jags defense spurred the organization to move aggressively, sending both first-round picks and a third-round pick in 2027 for impact players.
Before the Jags lost interior defensive lineman DaVon Hamilton and safety Eric Murray for the season, I thought the team needed upgrades in the secondary and the pass rush. For the season the Jags rank 19th in pass-rush grade per PFF. While I don't think Jordan Davis solves that problem with just 8 pressures this season, he's solid against the run, so his presence helps maintain Jacksonville's strong run defense — they traded a first-rounder and a future second-rounder for him.
The Jessie Bates trade will pay the biggest dividends. He's third among safeties in defensive grade and second in PFF coverage grade. In terms of pass defense, the Jags rank 22nd with 229.0 yards allowed per game — a lot considering how few elite quarterbacks they've faced — with the third-best EPA per pass allowed at -0.21. So they've dominated situational football.
When the Jags faced elite quarterbacks this season — Week 4 against Joe Burrow and Week 6 against C.J. Stroud — the defense got exposed: 6.7 yards per pass, 740 total passing yards in two games, +0.219 EPA per dropback. As the Jags gear up for the playoffs when they'll face the best of the best at quarterback, the secondary will need a difference-maker like Bates.
The Jags won't face an elite passer this week, facing the Titans and Cam Ward who enter Week 10 fresh off a bye. Last time in action, Ward posted his best game as a pro — 26/40 for 304 yards (a career-high), two touchdowns, with a 53.2% success rate (career-high). For most of the year, Ward had struggled to reach 200 yards in a game.
What's At Stake?
The Jags officially have a Super Bowl contender, but they need to shore up some "flare ups" on offense. Trevor Lawrence caught a few major breaks on downfield passes, but overall the offense struggled against the Ravens. The rushing attack flatlined with Chris Rodriguez and Bhayshul Tuten both struggling, and cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter fumbled on his first catch of the game against Baltimore.
Facing a rudderless team like the Titans gives the Jags a chance to iron out some wrinkles on offense — perhaps experiment with different run designs and get Hunter some more reps. For the Titans, an improved offensive performance, they look to sustain momentum against one of the league's best defenses ready to make a statement with their new pieces.
X-Factor:
The Titans got a big game from Tony Pollard (117 yards and two touchdowns) against the Bengals, which only ramped up trade speculation surrounding him come Tuesday morning. Pollard remained a Titan and now faces one of the best run defenses in football in Jacksonville.
The Jags defensive line has posted a top-10 pass-rush win rate and pressure rate but lacks big sack numbers — 13th in sack rate and 6th in total sacks. The Titans have a solid offensive line, 10th in pass-block PFF grade. The Jags have to get Cam Ward on the ground and not allow him to extend plays and escape the pocket to gain yards on the ground. If Ward has a big game, the Jags could find themselves under threat of an upset just like the Bengals, who escaped Tennessee in overtime in Week 8.
Verdict:
The Jaguars continue to act more like scavengers feasting on weaker, dying opponents rather than hunting with the predator instinct of the animal the team draws its name from. Jaguars roll, but they still haven't proven they can hunt the big game.
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Steelers vs Bengals — SNF — For Control Of The North
Once Aaron Rodgers ended his decision process and chose to return to the Steelers for his final pro season, expectations were tempered, muffled. Rodgers led the Steelers to the playoffs and the AFC North championship, but the offense looked far from anything Rodgers had produced at any time in his career, dominated by short-yardage passes.
According to Next Gen Stats, Rodgers targeted receivers below 10 air yards on 71.5% of his attempts last season — an absurd level of caution — and the Steelers closed the season with the 25th-ranked offense in football.
In 2026, with former Cowboys and Packers head coach Mike McCarthy reunited with Aaron Rodgers, it has looked more representative of a pro offense. Rodgers gets the ball downfield with mixed results. The Steelers rank 16th in total offense this season, but Rodgers ranks 12th in air yards.
The Steelers offense has generated -0.020 EPA per play over their last three games — all wins — after coming off their Week 9 bye. The Steelers defense has actually carried the team to a 6-2 start: 7th in yards allowed (305.6), 7th in EPA per play allowed (-0.14), and 4th in points allowed (18.0). The pass rush has peaked at the right time, second in sack rate in Weeks 6-8, fresh off an eight-sack performance against the Browns and Deshaun Watson.
The Steelers get after the quarterback with a flexible assortment of pass rushers led by T.J. Watt. With 7.5 sacks, Alex Highsmith leads the team in pressure rate, along with support producers like Patrick Queen, Keanu Benton, and Nate Herbig, who function as support rushers in a defensive structure designed to bring the house down.
The Bengals offense with Joe Burrow in the pocket has always played at an elite level and they continue to surge — their last three games: 38 points per game, +0.225 EPA per play, 7.4 yards per play, 57.4% success rate — all best marks Weeks 7-9. Burrow has had at least four touchdowns (passing or rushing) in four straight games, coming off a dazzling performance against the Falcons in Spain: 24/29 for 271 yards and four total touchdowns — three passing, one rushing.
What's At Stake?
The AFC North, for one. The winner claims clear control, and a Bengals win secures the head-to-head tiebreaker, as the Steelers already beat the Bengals once this season, 30-27 in Week 3. Rodgers registered 292 yards and three touchdowns against the Bengals defense, and a late sack-fumble of Joe Burrow closed the door on Cincinnati. So there is a little redemption potential for the Bengals.
X-Factor — Aaron Rodgers
Can he sustain a high level of play throughout four quarters, and worse, if needed, could he win a shootout with Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense? The Steelers like to play at a slower pace than most teams — 10th in seconds per play (28.5). If the Bengals take an early lead, can we count on Rodgers to drop back and bring the team to victory?
X-Factor — Bengals Linebackers
The Bengals linebackers are some of the weakest, if not least dependable, in football. Steelers running back Jaylen Warren nearly single-handedly brought down the Bengals on his own in Week 3: 176 total yards on 20 touches — 17 carries for 127 rushing, 49 receiving yards on three receptions. The Bengals gave up a big game to Bijan Robinson in Week 9 — 100 yards rushing and a touchdown on 19 carries, plus 47 yards receiving on six receptions — showcasing how the defense hasn't solved its running back problem, primarily handled by linebackers. Demetrius Knight Jr. and Barrett Carter will have to face Warren once again.
*Verdict: While I think the world of Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing offense and their ability to race past opposing defenses, the Steelers run game and defensive front control this battle and Pittsburgh takes control of the North, 27-26 on a late field goal.
