NFL Week Seven Previews.

NFL Week 7 PREVIEWS

I didn’t see many Interesting Games On The Dock For Week Seven. The Buccaneers Continue To Pull The Primetime Matchups, Facing The NFC’s best teams Week After Week, and Now Face The Heavyweight Lions. Jacoby Brissett's 300 Yard Performance Last Week Against The Colts didn’t Make Him A Viable Candidate For A full-time job As A Starter, But He May Have Started To close the Door On Kyler Murray as “The Guy” In Arizona. Brissett Put Together The Cardinals' Best Passing Performance Of The Season, and with Kyler's Status Up In The air, Another Solid Performance From Brissett(Hold Your breath) will reveal More Chinks In The Kyler Murray argument, closing A lot More questions about Kyler’s Game and answering other Questions We Knew About His Limitations As A Passer. The Bears Look To Extend Their Win Streak To Four In A Row against the Saints in Week Seven. Chicago begins a six-gamehilly run against really “Beatable” opponents And Chicago Could Rise To That surprise Playoff Team. The Eagles Pop Up At The tail end Of That Streak For Chicago and needs a win Against The Vikings To Make Every Look Good, even if we Know Things Have Gotten Shakyn he Roster . Whose Record So Far Looks Far From Where One Projected In The Offseason.

Panthers Vs Jets

This Week, I Heard The 3-3 Panthers Name Regarding The Playoffs, And While every Win Of This Run To .500 has Shocked Me With Every Down, Carolina doesn’t look playoff-ready yet. Winning Record Ready Facing The 0-6 Jets, Probably. In The Preseason Schedule Outlooks, This Game In Week Seven Projected Favorably As A Second Win For Either Team, Or At Least A Third Win For The Jets. The Panthers’ Seek Plus.500 For The First Since The Team Fell To 6-5 In week 10 In 2019, Also The Last Time They Won Four Games In A Row. The Panthers' Offense Has Jumped To 12th In EPA Per Play and Fourth In Success Rate During This Three-Game Win Streak, which Includes Two Comeback Wins Over Two Porous Defenses. Bryce Young Has Produced His Best Stretch In Terms Of Efficiency +0.15 In Total EPA -0.04 per pass, +0.34 per rush against the Dolphins, and +0.14 In Total EPA, +0.08 per pass, +0.18 per rush, 56.3% Success Rate (His Best Figure Of The Season)against Dallas. Not Exactly World-Beating Numbers But Definitely On The Better Side Of What We’ve Seen From Young In The Past. can The Jets Defense Slow Down Panthers Running back Rico Dowdle? He hits Week seven Hotter Than A Comet, with 473 yards from scrimmage, His Last Two Outings. The Jets' Defense Enters Week Six On The Heels Of Their Best Performance This Season, Forcing A 32.8 percent success rate against the Broncos. Have they figured out that side of the ball, or do they have more work ahead of them? The Offense Has Work To Do. The Jets looked Bad With Top Receiver Garrett Wilson In The Lineup. Without, Things Could Turn For The Worse Again This Week. The Jets Could Get Back On Track Against A Pedestrian Panthers’ defense.

TEXANS vs Seahawks

In A Of the two Previous seasons, A 2-3 Start To A Season wouldn’t Sound Ominous. Even After The Team Made The Playoffs In Stroud’s Rookie Season, A Low Start Adjusting To Life In Football Beyond The Regular season Seemed Natural. This Year, however, the Colts, The Other Horse In The Division, have stormed off With The Division Lead, Followed By The Prowling Jaguars In The AFC South. The Texans Have Ground To Make Up, Facing The Seahawks From The Northwest, who Just Knocked The Jags Off And Now Want To Move To 2-0 Versus The South. The Texans Dominated The Lamar-less Ravens Before The bye, But Face A Hot Quarterback In the Same Darnold. Darnold Averages 0.416 EPA Per Pass and 57.76 Pass Success Rate, Two Of The best Figures In The League For A Quarterback. Those Numbers Went up to +0.596 EPA per play. The Texans have a 60.66% success rate over the past two games. They possess the number one scoring defense in football, allowing only 12.2 points per game. According to ESPN FPI, they rank second in the league and second in expected points added (EPA) per pass allowed. The Texans' pass Defense Has Picked Off More Passes Than Touchdowns surrendered, forcing a Low 58% Completion Percentage and A 70.4 Passer Rating. The Texans' pass defense in one area raises concerns; they rank 21st against deep passes, allowing a passer rating of 122.3. Facing one of the League’s Best In Deep Passing, generating 2.31 EPA per completion and 1.44 EPA per attempt(Best In The League), Two Touchdown, no interceptions, and 62.5% Completion Percentage. Darnold’s Top Target, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, 3.05 EPA per catch. On Deep Balls, the OSU product Hauled In A 61 Touchdown Catch Against The Jags, adding up To His 42 receptions, a league-leading 696 yards, and three touchdowns. All But One Of Smith-Njigba’s Eight Catches Came 10 Air Yards Or Better Down, Field, And Three Of 20 Air Yards. The Seahawks Defense Lacks The Texans Pedigree At 17th Overall In EPA Per Play Allowed, Ninth In Success Rate, 22nd In EPA Per Pass, And Over 1500 Yards Passing Surrendered. Seattle’s Pressure Rate Ranks Sixth Overall, 90.4 Passer Rating Allowed. Seattle Pressured Trevor Lawrence 33 Times(PFF)Behind What Looked Like an Elite Offensive Line, a Line That Ranked Number Three By Football Network, Sacked Seven Times. The Seahawks Now Rank sixth Overall In Pressure Rate, 43.89% with 115 Total Pressures Leading The League. Will C.J. Stroud and The Texans' Offensive Line Have The Capacity To Withstand The Blows The Seahawks Offense Can Deliver?

Jags Vs Rams

The Jags' Legitimacy Took A Hit In Week Six, Taking The Dive To The Seahawks 20-12, Dropping Jacksonville To 4-2. If Any Team In The .500 Or Better Market Looked Like it, I'm afraid the Jags Displayed All The Symptoms. The Jaguars ranked 17th in offense and played like an average team, scoring only 12 points with just one touchdown. The run game averaged only 3.1 yards per carry. The Jags Whelmed This Season. This Season, Lead Receiver Brian Thomas hasn’t Shaken Off His slow Start To Show Up CONSISTENTly, Just A 72.5 Passer Rating Generated When Targeted. Thomas Ranks Tenth Amongst Receivers In Targets(47), But Caught His First Touchdown Of The Season In Week 6 against The Seahawks. Rookie Receiver Travis Hunter Has Flashed and Vanished Throughout The Season and Fared No Better, 55.4 Passer Rating When Targeted, Two Drops No Touchdown. When Lawrence Faces Pressure, The Offense Break Down, and Pressure Will Come On Sunday Against The Rams. Los Angeles Enters Week 7 Seventh In The NFL Pressure Rate 43.46%, 19 Sacks Total Tied For Third, The Defense Forces A 86.9 Passer Rating, and Only the Texans and Broncos surrender fewer points Per Game than the Rams. The Rams Offense ranks 13th in EPA Per Play and Sixth In success rate, but left Week Six On The Tails Of Their worst game, Hitting The League’s Defense Of The Baltimore Ravens For Only 17 points. Matthew Stafford's Play Gets Erratic. He’s Generating A 79.5 Passer Rating In The First Half And a 77.8 Passer Rating On Passes Between 1-10 Yards, the “gimme” “easy” Throws. Stafford’s Play Elevates Late In Games, where He’s Exceptional In The Third And Fourth Quarter, when The Script Breaks down and He’s Allowed To Freelance. Through Six Week Stafford Posted The highest volume of fourth quarter passes with 56 attempts, the highest total EPA 25.58, and passing yards 541. The Jaguars Enter Week 7 Still Among The Best In The League, sixth in EPA Per Play Allowed, Held Seattle's Offense To 20 Points, But The Secondary Got Burned Deep And Often Against Seattle, and ranks 18th in Deep Passer Rating Allowed (113.6).

Sam Darnold Finished 18.5 Yards Per Completion, 200 Air Yards, and 159 Yards On Deep Completions. Stafford Ranks 3rd In EPA 1.15 Per Attempt On Deep Attempts, But The Pending Absence Of Leading Receiver Puka Nacua Will Dampen The Impact of Stafford’s Play By No Small Margin. Nacua Accounts For over two-thirds of Stafford's offensive production in terms of EPA, 68%, an Astronomical Figure For One Receiving Threat. Nacua leads the team with the highest target volume at 65 and an efficiency of 0.68 EPA per target. Stafford’s Connection with Davante Adams Remains Inconsistent At Best. Adams Now Looks Poised To Step Into The Lead Role With Nacua Out. The Jags didn’t Turn The Seahawks Over, and The Defense thrives On Takeaways. Stafford has Avoided Turnovers, but doesn’t play “Carefully,” and the Jags Can Turn Him Over.

Lions Vs Buccaneers

The Favor Of The Football gods and the schedule Oracles Have Not shone on the Bucs in Florida. The Emergence Of Rookie Receiver Emeka Egbuka and The Return Of 1b Receiver Chris Godwin Cushioned The Blow From The Loss Of Lead Receiver Mike Evans. Godwin managed 71 Routes run, 6 Catches Before A Leg Injury Took Him Out of the Past Two Games. Rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka's blazing start to the season has now been halted by a hamstring injury, affecting half of the quarterback's positive EPA. Injury and His Presence As A Force Multiplier Opened Windows for Opportunities For Other Threats. Egbuka Accounted For The Bucs Roster Of Receivers, which has withered Down To Veteran Sterling Shepard, who has provided an Excellent Third Option, One Touchdown, 27 Targets, 19 Catches, 242 Receiving Yards. Rookie Tez Johnson caught his first touchdown of the year, a 45-yarder, in last week's win over the Niners. The Bucs' speedy round receiver made a significant impact. Kameron Johnson, a second-year wide Receiver, Will Also Fill A greater role. The Baker Mayfield MVP Has Caught Momentum, And Now He’s Got To Prove He’s That Guy With His Guys against The Bucs, the Toughest Challenge Yet. Mayfield Has Played Exceptional All Season, 12 Touchdowns, One Interception, 1539 Passing Yards, and 108.5 Passer Rating. The Lions' Defense Ranks Eighth In EPA Per Play, 14th In EPA Per Pass, and Amongst The Best In Deep Passing Defense, Surrendering A Passer Rating Of 83.7. The Defense Suffered A setback, Posting Their Worst Game Of The Season Against The +0.472 EPA Per play against the Chiefs, And The Defense gave up Eight Touchdowns In The Red Zone Since Week Four. Over The Past Two Weeks, the Lions Have Given Up A 50.8% Success Rate To Offenses. The Lions Ranked Third In pressure Rate, 44.39% led by Aidan Hutchinson, And The Team got Talented Defensive Tackle Alim McNeil Back, Making The third-best run Defense In The League Even Better and Perhaps Forcing The Bucs To Play one-dimensional. Detroit's pressure rate drops to 27th when rushing four or fewer at the quarterback (NFL Next Gen Stats/ESPN), which could allow Baker Mayfield all the time needed to exploit holes in the Lions' defense downfield. The Lions averaged 40.3 points per game through Weeks 2 through Week 5. The Passing Game took off, But The Running Game Took A Step Back. During that period, only the Ravens had a positive expected points added (EPA) from rushing against the Lions. Passers Facing The Bucs Defense Have Generated A 51.2% Success Rate On Dropbacks Over The Past Two Weeks. The Lions' Offense Scored Only 17 Points Against The Chiefs. Jared Goff still Hit Completions/Attempts: 23/29 (79.3% 203 Passing Yards, Two Touchdowns, and 0.29 EPA Per Pass. The Bucs Rank Ninth In Pressure Rate Generated At 43.22, But Goff's EPA Per Play Remains Positive Under Pressure +0.15 EPA Per Play Under Pressure. Tampa Bay Just Won Their First Game Of One Score Or Better This time, But If This Game Breaks Down To A shootout, we expect the Bucs To Overcome Late.

Colts Vs Chargers

The Colts Continued Their Hot Start To The Season, Besting The Kyler Murray-less Cardinals 31-27, Though Things Got Dicey Late. The Colts entered Week Six with A top-ten defense, Knocking Opponents Off By 20.25 points from Week One, including a 25-point win over the Dolphins, a 21-point win over the Titans, and a 34-point win over the Raiders. Altogether, the group Team Struggled has four wins. Against the Cardinals and Backup Quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the Colts’ defense Surrendered Their second-highest EPA Per Play +0.090, and After Playing Passing Defense Erratically All Season, They Gave 320 Passing Yards To A Backup Quarterback while Giving Three Touchdowns and One Takeaway. The Colts Defense Will Face Justin Herbert and The Chargers Offense, Who Delivered The Bolts From The Jaws Of The Dolphins and A Game-Losing Skid Thanks To A Late Game 42 Yard Connection To Ladd McConkey That Set Up A Game-Winning Field Goal. Herbert had a Recovery Game against The Dolphins Passing, 29/38 (76.3%), 264 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, EPA per Drop-back Of 0.17, and A EPA per Pass Of 0.20 After He Produced Back-to-back Negative EPA Games In Four Straight Weeks. Herbert Struggles Come Down To The Pressure Rate. The Chargers Offense

I’ve Line Has Struggled With Injuries. Herbert Has Faced the Blitz 71 times (most in the NFL), Pressured 100 times (most in the NFL), Pressured on 40.8% of drop-backs (3rd most), Sacked 17 times (6th most), Per Next Gen Stats. The Colts have 16 Sacks On The Season, But Generate Pressure 36.59% Of Dropback, 23rd In The League. The Chargers Got A Strong breakout game By Running Back Kimani Vidal, 18 Carries, 124 Rushing Yards. The Colts Have The Second Worse Run Defense In Terms Of Success Rate. The Chargers' Defense Ranks Ninth In EPA Per Play Allowed, Lowest Completion Percentage, and 12th-best pressure rate. The Colts' Offense, led by Daniel Jones, is number One In EPA Per Play. Jones Ranks Number One In QBr, Number Four In Quarterback EPA, and Number Three In Raw Total Quarterback Rating, All According to ESPN. Jones Has Posted At least One Touchdown in Each Of His Games This Season, Only Dipped Below 70% Completion percentage Twice This Season, four Rushing Touchdowns and Just Three Picks, All Three Coming In The past three Games. The Chargers' defense has vulnerabilities To Scrambling/Rushing Quarterbacks across 23 Scrambles, 187 Yards Surrendered(most In The League), 9 1st Downs, 8.1 Yards, 14.41 Total EPA, 0,63 EPA Per Scramble. Jones Could Have A Big Game on The Ground If He Stays Clean Through The Air.

Cowboys Vs Commanders

Ten weeks remain in the Season After Week Seven, but the Break Games Wait For The Commanders and Cowboys From Here On Out. The Cowboys suffered a disappointing Week Six matchup against the Panthers. A former Cowboy turned breakout Panther stated that the team didn't "buckle up." Dowdle Led The Carolina To The Upset Win, Leaving Dallas 2-3-1 Searching for Answers On Defense And Maybe Those Answers Start On Offense. Dak Prescott Remained The Top Passer In The League After Putting Together another Caliber Performance In Week Six, 25/34 (73.5 %), 261 Passing Yards, 0.51 EPA Per Pass Against The Panthers. For The Season, Prescott ranks second in QBR, First In EPA, Fifth In EPA per drop-back, and Averaging A Smooth 0.258 EPA per pass. Prescott has an MVP Resume Without A Winning Record, But His EPA Drops Off In Winning Time. He Drops Down To 0.12 EPA Per Pass With Two Fourth-Interception This Season. In the Fourth Quarter Against The Panthers, Prescott’s Completion Percentage dropped to 55.6% and his EPA Per Play was -0.10. Presscott Targeting George Pickens Has Worked Out Well. The Former Steelers Grab The Number One Spot of The Cowboys receiving and Ran Off 0.89 EPAPer target 48 targets, 42.60 total EPA(2nd Most Amongst Receivers). With Ceedee Lamb Returning, I don’t expect Pickens To Receive Double Coverage With a safety over The Top. Dak Prescott has targeted his tight ends on 28.6% of his passes. On His Three Tight Ends, Maybe One of Them Has an Imprint on This Game For The Cowboys. The League’s Leading Rushing Game of the Cowboys didn’t Show Up, and Prescott didn’t Make Plays Late. Through The First Four Weeks, the Cowboys Ranked First In Rushing Success rate and Fifth In EPA Per Rush. In the Past Two Weeks, the Cowboys Have Dropped To 26th In Success Rate and 12th in EPA Per Rush. Jayden Daniels Also Stumbled Late In The Commanders' Lost To the Bears In Week Six. His Botched handoff led Directly To a Winning Field Goal for the Bears. Maybe If The Commanders' Defense Could Tackle, D’Andre Swift gets stopped short of the Bears’ field Goal Range. Daniels still walked away With A Solid Game Passing In his Second Game Returning From Injury, 19/26, 211 Passing Yards, Three Touchdowns, One Interception +8.73 Total EPA and +0.34 EPA Per pass. Daniels had 10 Rushes For 52 Yards On The Ground. The Ground Game Has Also Fallen On Hard Times, Promising Rookie Running Back JACORY

CROSKEY-MERRITT Posted Two Fumbles In Back-To-Back Weeks(5-6) and Posted a Negative EPA in Week 6 (-9.73), Only His Second Negative Game Of The Season. Both Defenses Have Some Rebounding To Seek In Week Six. The Commanders allowed A 64% Rushing Success Rate To The Bears and a 70.59% To Running back D’Andre Swift. Swift's Previous High was 52.94% in Week 3, Week Six Marked Only The Second Time He’s passed 50% This Season, +12.32 Total EPA, Only His Second Positive EPA Game Of The Year. The Cowboys Defense, Belt To You Know What, Rico Dowdle Of The Panthers +8.91 EPA, 62.86% Success Rate, 30 Attempts, 183 Rushing Yards (only His Second Above 50% Percent Success Rate), and The Cowboys. Bryce Young Put Together His second-best game Of The Season: 17/25, 199 Passing Yards, Three Touchdowns, 46.43% Success Rate, +8.93 EPA. The Cowboys Struggle defending The Pass and Rank Dead Last In Deep Passing Defense. League-worst 585 total yards allowed on deep passes and six Touchdowns. Jayden Daniels, On A Limited basis (11.3% of attempts), has proven highly efficient with 0.56 EPA per play and a 50% completion rate on 20 Yards or Better. Can Daniel Take Advantage Without Wide Receiver Terry McLaurin? Deebo Samuel has Stepped Into The Lead Role, But He’s Best When Targeted Over Intermediate Routes. Second Year Wide Receiver Luke McCaffrey Has Stepped Up On Deep Routes, But He’s A Workhorse Whomever The Offense Lines Up With On The Outside.