NFL Week Nine Preview.

NFL Week Nine Previews

The NFL has taken on a more episodic nature this season, with each week producing new surprises from unexpected sources, all connected to a single overarching storyline. Fans, experts, and enthusiasts can’t rely on film analysis, reasoning, or statistics from previous weeks to judge what will happen in the upcoming games. However, while records typically don’t shift dramatically from week to week, Week Nine brings several season-defining matchups. The cluster of teams with records such as 4-4, 3-4, and 4-3 must begin moving decisively in one direction after his Sunday’s Action With The Trade Deadline Looming.

Football fans have witnessed several miraculous turnarounds in recent seasons, almost regularly. While referring to these moments as “miracles” may feel like an overstatement, they still evoke that sense of astonishment. Which teams will respond to their Week Eight losses and get back on track? Which Teams Dont Have A Track To Get Back On As The Chance To rebound, whether away, With Each Passing Down?

The Week Nine slate of games includes a heavyweight matchup between the Bills and the Chiefs, featuring the same stakes that have characterized their last few meetings, along with some intriguing new elements. Unlike in past seasons, this celebrated rivalry will not determine which team has the upper hand as they approach a Potential playoff rematch. Neither the Chiefs nor the Bills has control over their division or the AFC as a whole, making this game crucial. It is important not only for building confidence between these two juggernauts but also for maintaining momentum, especially with the Patriots in the East for the Bills and the Broncos in the West for the Chiefs—something neither team had to worry about in previous years. The Game Matters More To the Chiefs Slightly. In The Past, The Bills’ Playoff Losses To the Chiefs Made The Game Sort Of a Measuring Stick For Them. Kansas City has a Tougher Division To Work Through, Looking Up At Two Competitive Teams In The Division.

Falcons vs Patriots

The Falcons' season Comes Down To This Game Against The Shocking 6-2 Patriots. The Falcons' Week Eight Loss To The Dolphins Should’ve Ameliorated Some Of The Pressure On The Team Down The Stretch of The Season. Instead, Neither The Offense Nor The Defense Showed Up On Sunday against The Dolphins. The Falcons' Pass Defense Enters Week Nine On A Season Low After Tua Tagovailoa Went 2023 Vintage On Raheem Morris’s Defense. No Team Has Passed For Better Than 200 Yards against the Falcons This Season, and That Still Holds After Dolphins Hit 197 Passing Yards(Tua generated 204 Gross Yardage, Before Sack Yardage Subtraction). He Also Generated A 136 Passer Rating. The Falcons hadn’t Surrendered A Passer Rating better than 85 since week one. Tua’s 77.8 Completion Percentage, 7.3 Yards Per Attempt, 10.2 Adjusted Yards gained per pass attempt, Also Season Highs allowed For The Falcons. These Falcons didn’t Face A Hot Tua Either, -0.61 EPA Per Play, 26.1% Success Rate The Week Prior, 6 Picks and One Touchdown Over The Past two Games. Atlanta Will Face Maybe The Hottest Quarterback On The Face Of The Earth, Drake Maye. The Patriots Quarterback Followed Up One record-breaking performance With Another Harrowing Affair, completing 18/24 passes for 282 yards, 332 Total yards ( 50 on the ground), 64.5% Success rate, three touchdowns, and one interception in 19 quarters (four Games). Maye generated 9.0 YPA in 6 of 8 games. Maye is second in the league in EPA per dropback and seventh in first down and touchdown rate, first in EPA per dropback, second in success rate, and second in passer rating. He’s Unstoppable Right Now. The Falcons' Defense Naturally Plays Better When The Offense supports And Gives Them A Lead, -0.07 EPA allowed When Leading, which Kirk Cousins didn’t Afford The Team In Week Eight. The Falcons' Offense Fell short More Times Than The Dolphins' Defense Slowed Them Down 4.8 Yards, 18% third-down Down Conversion Rate. The Offense Starts Through The Run Game, Which The Dolphins Shut Down In Week Seven(-0.38 EPA Per Play), Forcing The Falcons into Their Highest Pass Rate Over Expected With Kirk Cousins At Quarterback. The Second Week In a Row, The Falcons' Rushing Attack Met An Unfavorable Foe, And The Offense Scored Ten Points Each Game. The Patriots Rank 3rd in rush stop win Rate, and the Patriots Defense Forces teams into a Higher Target Rate(73.9% in week 7 and 68.6% In Week 8) By Stopping The Run, forcing under 75 rushing yards in 5 of 8 games. With either Michael Penix, who leads The League in Off Target Rate, or Kirk Cousins, who looked dismal in Week 8 and Finished Last Season With an Off Target Rate of 29.58%, Higher Than Penix's This Year(25%). The Matchup in Week 8: The Dolphins Favored The Falcons Statistically Before Someone Played a Uno “Reverse” and Unless The Falcons Pass Defense Gets Some Of That “Stankonia” This Matchup Looks Bad For Atlanta Hoping To Get Back On Track.

Saints Vs. Rams

If The Patriots At 6-2 Shocked The NFL Through Eight Weeks, Then The Saints At 1-6 Serve As The Inverse. New Orleans Has Looked Just As Everyone Expected With The Pleasant Surprise Of Spencer Rattler. Much Of The Saints' Season Has followed Along The Lines Of Two Narratives: What’s The Trade Value On Several players, and What Does The Saints Have In Spencer Rattlers, who look Good While The Saints took Necessary Losses? Through Spencer’s First Six Starts, he’d Played Himself From A fifth-round pick in a much-discussed 2024 Class, To A 3rd third-string quarterback, To The Number One Starting Option For Kellen Moore Next Season. In His Last Two Games, starting Rattler has Committed Six Turnovers In Six Quarters, With His Turnover Affair against the Bears and Two Against Tampa before Kellen Moore And The Coaching Staff Shut Him Down at halftime. The Saints' Offense Needs To Get More Evaluation On Second Round Pick, 25 25-Year-Old Rookie Tyler Shough. If you’re just Getting Introduced To Football Via This Post, Shough Had A Sordid History Of Injuries During A Year of College Run, and a 25-year-old Blows The Standard Age Of a Rookie, starting Age Out the Window. Shough racked up 17/30 passes for 128 yards, one interception against the Bucs, and If He Has A Place In The Saints' Future, He’s Got Half A Season Or Maybe A Game To Prove So. Moore could’ve Picked A More Favorable Opponent To Start A Rookie. The Rams Defense Ranks Number One By ESPN FPI Efficiency Metrics, Sporting One The Best Pass Rushes In Football(41.3% pressure rate, 10th In Pass Rush win Rate,) Second In EPA Per Dropback Allowed (-0.106), sixth In Passer Rating Allowed. The Saints Have Given up 20 Sacks On A Respectable 16.7% Pressure Rate Because They drop back (65% Pass Rate) Than Average Offenses. The Saints Defense, not The Most Celebrated Unit In Football, Forced The Bucs To -0.193 EPA Per Play, 220 Total Net Yards, 22 Yards and 1.7 Points Per Drive On A 66.1% success rate. The Offense Put The Defense In several Disadvantageous Positions. The Saints' Pressure Rate Has Picked Up Since Week Five. They’ve been At Or above 40% In Each Game. Rams Passer, I.e, Matthew Stafford, Has Only faced Pressure 18.7% Of Their drop-backs, but 11 Sacks, So He’s “Get-Able”. Matthew Stafford Has An MVP Candidacy Going, As He Ranks Top Ten In EPA per drop-back, Success Rate, Total EPA, Yards Per Attempt, Passer Rating, and Pacing The League with 17 Touchdowns Despite a Bye In Week Eight. Stafford Has Twelve (12) touchdowns, Zero (0)Picks In His Last Four Outings with a 91.1 PFF passing grade, so He’s On A heater Right Now. The Rams Tend To Play To The Level Of Their Opponent, And No One Knows What to Expect From Tyler Shough. Maybe The Rookie Surprises The Rams. Los Angeles also gets Puka Nacua Back, a test For That Saints Secondary. The Rams Waxed The Jags In London In Week 7, But Sean McVay’s Squad Hasn’t Beaten Any Team Of Note Outside Of The Colts—Indy Basically Threw That Win To The Colts With Multiple Miscues.

Bengals Vs Bears

This Game Could Shape Both The Bears and the Bengals’ Season The Rest Of The Way. Which Team Suffered The More Embarrassing Loss boils Down To Perspective. The Bears entered M&T Bank Stadium On A game-winning streak, Looking To get to 5-2 against a Hapless Ravens Team, and Chicago didn’t Secure The Win. Bears’ Quarterback Caleb Williams’s Performances Continue To Perplex Even Experts. He Generated A Positive Completion Percentage Over Expected(+ 5.7 ), But A below-average passer Rating (77.2). He Threw For 285 Passing Yards, 42.9% Success Rate, But His Lone Interception Set The Ravens Up Inside The Chicago Ten For Essentially A game-sealing touchdown With The Bears trailing 16-13. The Bears Receivers Didn’t Excel At Getting Open. Nine Of Their Receivers Averaged Better Than Three Yards Of Separation. Williams ranks Second in Target Throw, which didn’t Help Their Bears Sustain Drives. Receiver Rome Odunze Came Away With Seven Catches For 114 Receiving Yards On 7 Catches, 0.58 EPA Per Target, 70.0% Success Rate after Odunze “Leveled Off” The Previous Two weeks. His Breakout Surge Picked Back Up. The Bears Got Former Number One Receiver DJ Moore Going Four Catches, 73 Yards, His Best Game In Terms of Yardage All season. The Bears get A Rebounding Opportunity Against a Bengal Defense That Not Only Lost To A Previously winless Jets But One That Blew A Late Double Lead On Their Way To Surrendering 39 Points To The Jets, 23 Points In The Fourth Quarter. The Cincy Defense Allowed The Jets to Convert 7/15 Third Downs, and 2/3 4th Downs In The Game While Not Sacking Justin Fields. The Bengals' Offense Scored 38 Points on Sunday and Punted Just Twice In Their First Eight Possessions. The Offense Rushed For 181 yards On The Ground, 7.9 A Run, But Couldn’t Control The Ball Late. Cincinnati’s Offense has Improved Robustly under Joe Flacco, rising from -0.241 EPA per play through Weeks 1-5 to +0.211 EPA per play in Weeks 6-8, and success rate increasing from 38.2% to 52.1%. The Rushing Game Increased Significantly -0.102 EPA Per Rush, To +0.271 EPA Per Rush, 37.0% Success Rate To A 59.7% Success Rate. The Bears' Defense Gave Up 177 Yards On The Ground, 5.1 Yards Per Carry, and Two Touchdowns For Derrick Henry. Jamar Chase has been Taking His Play Back to all-world Number Again This season. After Flacco started, 40 Targets, 36 Receptions, 51.1% and 57.6% Target Share In His Past Two Games, and 346 Receiving Yards, 0.674 EPA per play with a 78.9% success rate, 2.64 yards per route run Over A Game Span With Flacco. Chase has His Totals Receiving Yards For The Season Back at Number two with 720. Had 19 Targets Against The Jet. No one On The rest Of The Roster had Better Than Four. Flacco Needs to Get The Rest Of His Weapons Involved as Teams Seek To Take Chase Out Of The Game, As The Jets Achieved Late In The Fourth Quarter. The Jets Gave Up A Decent Game To Tyler Huntley, 17/22 For 182 Passing Yards, and Only Pressured Him Seven Times.

Steelers Vs Colts

I can’t imagine a Worse Sight On The Schedule For Any Team Fighting Off A Losing Skid Than The Indianapolis Colts Up Next, and that’s What The Steelers Have On To face With Their Division Lead Hanging In The Balance. The Colts Have Completely Thrashed Teams In Recent weeks, entering Week Nine On A four-game win streak, with margins of 34, 14, and 24 points. With one close victory, a 4-point win over the Arizona Cardinals Two Weeks Ago. The Team Has Posted Less Than 30 Points In Just Two Games This Season and enters a back-to-back 38 Point Game, +0.301 EPA per play across those four weeks. The Colts faced A Load Of Bad teams, But They Look Like the 2007 Patriots Out There. The Offense Has Not Slipped Up Since The Rams Game. Running Back Jonathan Taylor Deserves All The MVP Credit He’s Received With 14 Total Touchdowns, 1056 Total Yards From Scrimmage, 5.9 Yards Per Run(4.5 Yards After Contact, 76.5%), 1.43 Rush Yards Over Expected Per Rush, 47.6% overall, 45.5% rushing, 60.0% receiving Success Rate, and 49 Forced Miss Tackles. Taylor Won Offensive Player Of The Year Before, but The Colts Offense Didn’t Look Like This Year, and That’s Because This Year, Daniel Jones Makes The Colts Offense Tick. The Colts ' Season Acquisition Gets The Ball Rolling For The Colts' Offense. He’s Top Five in EPA, QBr, Completion Percentage, pass EPA, and EPA Per play. He’s Best Throwing Around The Medium(10-19) +0.650 EPA Per Pass, 64.7% Success Rate while Keeping defenses Honest On Deep Pass +0.475 EPA Per play On Deep Passes This Season and Mastery Of Short Range +0.312 EPA Per Play, 61.7% Success Rate and an 81.7% Completion Percentage. The Steelers' Defense faces Struggles To Defend The Pass, Giving Up 360 Yards Passing To Jordan Love 29/37, 20 Straight Completions At One Point, with 23 completions coming at 9 Air Yards Or Fewer. The Colts aren’t an " A “YAC Team, but the Steelers Struggled To Defend Packers Tight Tucker Kraft, and the Colts have a Good Tight End in Tyler Warren, who Leads The Team In Receiving Yards 492, YAC Per Reception (7.92), and Averages 0.517 Per Target fourth On The Team. Warren Averages 15.7 YAC Per reception On Catches Behind The Line Of Scrimmage, which Presents The Same problem. Tucker Kraft, Who Had 131 Yards After The Catch, was Presented To The Steelers On Sunday. The Steelers' Defense Has Allowed 470 In Week 7 Against The Bengals and 454 In Week 8 Versus The Packers. They Shut Down The Run Against The Packers, but the Week Before Versus The Bengals posted +0.24 EPA Per Rush, 52.2% Success Rate, 6.2 Yards Per Carry, a monstrously efficient game for a Bengals Team That Struggled On The Ground Before Hitting Pittsburgh In The Month.

The Colts Defense Has Performed Well Enough To stay Paced With The Offense, -0.034 EPA per play Allowed, 86.9 Passer Rating, 26.9 Pressure Rate with 23 Sacks On The Season. The Defense Has given Up Positive EPA To Four Passers This Season And Positive EPA To Three Straight Rushers. If Aaron Rodgers can Have One Of Those “Games” Like The Ones Old Quarterbacks Can Deliver, this Colts team Has Some “Get-Ability”. This Season, Rodgers completes 68.3% Of His Passes. This Season, 16 Touchdowns, 0.081 EPA Per Play with Four Games Of Positive EPA Per Play, But Comes In Off his worst game Of The season -6.91 Total EPA, -0.177 EPA Per Play, and 35.9% Success Rate. The Steelers Rank 18th on ESPN’s FPI ranking, squarely among the Teams The Colts absolutely crushed This Season. The Colts Have Spent 105.8 Minutes trailing This Season, among the Best In The League, But We Haven’t Seen Their Defense Perform Too Many Times In “Back Against The Wall” Against a Good Team Because Indy Blows Everybody Out On Sunday. The Sytterls Need Aaron Rodgers To Summon an Elite Performance. How Will The Colts Respond Defensively? Ultimately, Indy Pummels the Steelers, Making the Race In The AFC North A lot More Interesting To Close The Season.

Seahawks Vs Commanders

Parity Reigns In The NFL Once Again This Season With 12 Teams Sitting Between 5-6 Wins, and Several Win Teams Still Looked Dangerous But Wounded. One Of Those Wounded Was The 3-5 Commanders. If Anything more Than Injuries Hurt The Commanders This Season, the tougher schedule has burdened the team's Attempt To Re-Approach The Playoffs. The NFL Tailors each team's Schedule To Their Record The Year Before And After Jumping From The second Pick in The Draft To The Conference Championship. The Commanders Earned A Harder Ride Back Up. Games Against Carolina, Arizona, New Orleans, Tennessee, and Cleveland Won’t Show Up On The Schedule This Season, So Losses To Cowboys And Chargers Lead The Trail For Games Against The Chiefs, Seahawks, and Lions. After A Demoralizing Defeat At The Hands Of The AFC Champion Chiefs, Where The Commanders scored just Seven Points, pushing Their Losing Skid To Three Games, Washington will Face The high-flying Seahawks Offense Coming In At 5-2, but not Too Hot To Handle. Last We Saw Of The Seahawks offense In Week Seven, Sam Darnold And The Offense Struggled -0.26 EPA Per Play and 32.5% Success Rate far Off Their Season Averages Against A Formidable Texans Defense, But This Marked The Second Game in A Row The Team Finished With A Negative EPA Per Play. Sam Darnold completed 56.3% Of His Passes, -0.55 Per Pass Play, 75.8 Passer Rating. He’s had a passer Rating Above 100 in His Four Previous Matchups. The Commanders' Defense Donald Will Face +0.371 EPA Per Play, 56.8% Success Rate To Mahomes, Three Touchdowns, Two Pick, 299 Passing Yards, 1045 Passer Rating, and Sacking Him Three. Over The Course Of This Game Losing Streak, the Commanders Have Allowed a Positive EPA in Three Games. The Key To Slowing Down Darnold Maybe Slowing Down His Top Option Jaxson Smith-Njigba. NFL defenses haven't successfully stopped the NFL leader In Receiving Yards, Not Even The Texans' Skilled Secondary Could Hold JSN 123 receiving yards, 3.51 Yards Per Route run. For The Season, He’s Up To 0.634 EPA Per target, 71.4% catch rate, 16.4 yards per reception. Seahawks tight end Elijah Arroyo and AJ Barner have shown effective targets, especially in the red zone. The Commanders' Secondary struggled defending Travis Kelce(Another World Of Tight End) 99 Receiver yards, and Rashee Rice 93 Receiving, The Number One Receiving option for the Chiefs. The Seahawks’ Secondary Won’t Have To Face Commanders’ Terry McLaurin, The Star Wide Receiver Caught A Touchdown, 54 Receiving Yards On Three Catches In The Team's Loss To The Chiefs, But Re-aggravated A Quad Injury. Jayden Daniels will Return After One Game. He’s missed three Games Overall, and the Commanders haven’t Won A Game This Season With Daniels Out Of The Lineup. The Offense Has Posted a Negative EPA per Play In Three Straight games, Including The Ones Daniels started, along with this game's Losing Streak. The Seahawks' pass defense allows 0.159 expected points added (EPA) per pass play, with a success rate of 52.5%. The Defense Has One Elite Player In Josh Jobe, 46.7% Completion Percentage, -5.4 EPA allowed, and -0.121 EPA Target. Starting safeties Ty Okada and Nick Emmanwori surrendered 70%+ completion rates, linebackers Also Sketchy In Coverage Ernest Jones +0.423 EPA Per-target and Tyrice Knight +0.488 EPA Per-target. Deep Pass Defense Also Susceptible To Damage +0.234 EPA Per Play And 62.2% Success Rate. The Pass Rush Usually Offsets The Coverage Issue. The Seahawks Rank Top Five In Both sack rate 7.28% and pressure rate 50.00%. This Pass Rush Can Go. The Seahawks have Five Players With 15 or More Pressures This Season, led by Defensive tackle, and the Commanders' Offensive Line allowed 21 Pressures To the Chiefs. Chiefs Edge Rusher George Karlaftis nearly Dominated On His Own, generating nine pressures on a 43.5% pass-rush win rate. The Seahawks play the run Strong, 75.7 rushing yards allowed per game, Best In The League. A Precarious Game For The Seahawks, Who Have The Better Team On Paper, but A Roster And A Scheme Chuck Filled With Vulnerabilities. Jayden Daniel returns, making him The X-Factor if He Can Keep The Commanders' offense On Time, avoid pressure, and Protect The Ball—all Things We’ve witnessed him Perform Well. The Seahawks Have The Weaknesses(and the strengths) To Make That A Reality For Daniel’s.

Chiefs Vs Bills

To the dismay of many football fans, the Chiefs have returned. The defending AFC champions brushed off a 2-3 start and now stand at 5-3, winners of three straight games. The Chiefs have one loss in their past six games; however, they stand at 1-3 against teams with a winning record and can only thank the Lions for not having zero wins. The Chiefs Have A Tougher Way To Go Down The Stretch, Starting With A Matchup With The Rival Bills. These Games Between The Chiefs And Bills Have So Much Meaning, Backstory, Two MVP Quarterbacks, and Two Super Bowl Hopefuls. Patrick Mahomes Has Come Along Strong In Recent Weeks. His Success Rate Hasn’t Dropped Below 50%, His Completion Percentage Hasn’t Dropped Below 65% Since Week Three, With Performances Of 250 Plus Yards Passing Over That Span. Mahomes had only one game this season with a negative EPA per play. Despite his declining numbers, the Chiefs remain focused on passing, leading the league in pass rate over expected (+8.1%). The Bills' Pass Defense One Of The Best In The League -0.076 EPA Per Play Allowed 41.2% Success Rate Allowed On Pass Plays, 89.4 Passer Rating, 161 Passing Yards Per Game. They haven’t Faced A Quarterback Of Mahomes' Caliber Since Week One against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, Who Hit Them up for +0.419 EPA Per Pass, 47.6% Success Rate. Drake Maye Six An MVP Candidate This Season +0.129 EPA Per Play, 50% Success Rate Per Pass. The Chiefs will bring their full offensive contingent with Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown, and Mahomes, who thrives against zone coverage with an EPA of 0.487 per play compared to 0.007 EPA per play against man coverage. Historically, the Bills have played zone coverage heavily under Sean McDermott. In Week 9, they ended their losing streak by dominating the Panthers. However, they still find themselves trailing the Patriots in the division and need a win over the Chiefs to stay competitive in the AFC East.