NFL Week 7 Preview: 5 Predictions — Tampa, Vikings D, JJ McCarthy Era

Giants vs Texans

The NFC East has fallen on hard times. None of the four teams has won a game in two weeks. The Eagles' losing streak has stretched to four games after Week 6 losses, so the division winner will likely have a sub- 500 record. The Giants won by default, but they still maintain control of the division after losing to the now 2-4 Saints, with Tyler Shough falling short in their 24-yard comeback attempt.

The bright spot for the Giants: quarterback JJ McCarthy, the tenth overall pick, jettisoned from Minnesota, entered the game in the fourth quarter. Despite throwing an interception early, adding to the three Jameis had already thrown in the game, McCarthy served up an 11-for-21 performance over five drives, with 243 passing yards, one touchdown, a +8.5% completion percentage over expected, 14.9 air yards per attempt, and 17.2 air yards per completion. He also tacked on 26 yards on two carries, the best mark on the team. John Harbaugh hasn't announced a starter, but McCarthy or Winston will have to take first-team reps in practice leading up to their team's matchup with the Texans.

CJ Stroud faced an offseason replete with scrutiny. Everyone believed his turnover-filled performances held back a Super Bowl roster, but he's responded to the pressure. Stroud threw his first interception of the season against the Jags in Week 6, but he ranks second in the league in passing yards, first in completion percentage over expected, fourth in interception rate per game, and tenth in EPA per game. He has 13 big-time throws and three turnover-worthy plays.

Stroud entered the league as a good decision-maker, and when he found success in Year One, he possessed an elite deep ball, with a 98.2 PFF grade. That fell off recently, but now he's back among the league's elite on pass plays of 20-plus air yards, with a 93.3 PFF grade, +12.4% CPOE (sixth), and +15.7 EPA (sixth).

The Texans have assembled an assortment of weapons around Stroud. They'll get receiver Tank Dell back after a nearly two-year absence following reconstructive knee surgery. The additions of Marvin Harrison, Foster Moreau, and Kayshon Boutte, along with the emergence of second-year receiver Jaylin Noel, give the Texans a variety of weapons to attack with. Nico Collins doesn't have to win at every level to keep the passing attack rolling. The narrative has shifted this year: Houston's defense now threatens to derail a brilliant Stroud season.

Houston's defense didn't get a sack on Trevor Lawrence in Week 6, despite facing a weakened offensive line. Trevor completed only 59% of his passes. He needed 41 attempts to reach 306 passing yards, but, truthfully, the Jags' receivers bailed out the Texans' secondary with five drops in the game. The Jags' leading receiver, Parker, finished the game 4-for-11 with multiple drops. The Texans' linebackers, in particular Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To'oTo'o, struggled in pass coverage against receivers lined up inside.

What's at stake? Obviously, both teams need to win. The Texans can't afford to lose more than the Giants — not only to keep pace with the Jaguars, but also to maintain momentum, push toward.500, and gain real ground in the playoff race. The Giants have complete control of their division, and with the Eagles and Commanders presumably playing the rest of the season just for the sake of playing, only the 2-4 Cowboys still have a fighting chance in the NFC East. Right now, the Giants still need to put distance between themselves and the next team, and New York needs to establish an identity.

The X-factors start with the Texans' secondary. They're one of the worst defenses against deep passes (fifth-worst in DVOA), rank third in yards allowed to No. 1 receivers (92.9), and are 22nd in DVOA against tight ends. Whichever quarterback the Giants decide to roll with, McCarthy or Winston, both have shown a propensity to attack deep downfield. The Giants' No. 1 receiver, Malik Nabers, is one of the best in the business and a complete terror downfield. He ranks 18th in yards per route run. The real threat in the Giants' passing game is their tight end, Isaiah Likely. He's fifth in the league in receptions and 12th in receiving DVOA among tight ends.

The X-factor for the Giants is head coach John Harbaugh. The head coach has several crucial decisions that will impact this game: stick with the proven, mercurial Jameis Winston, or roll with the hot but possibly unsustainable JJ McCarthy. The Giants will need a running game to help the defense slow down CJ Stroud's potent passing offense, so Cam Skattebo will have to come out of the doghouse for a spell. The Giants have some of the elements needed to pull off the upset over the Texans. While Houston has played better ball in recent weeks, they play to the level of their competition, which could leave the door open for the Giants to steal a 23-20 victory.

Packers vs Lions

They say style makes fights, and the style the Packers and Jordan Love like to play in the passing game might overwhelm Detroit's defense.

The Lions exit their bye still beaming from a 45-point, six-touchdown explosion against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5. The Lions pulled off the NFL version of fan rage-coping, using a video game as a simulated coping mechanism: cranking the difficulty down to the lowest setting and beating the opposing team 100-0 or worse.

The Lions' defense got picked apart by the Panthers and Bryce Young in Week 4, then turned around and blasted the Cardinals. So far this season, the Lions have dominated the noncompetitive teams they've faced, but the Bills and Panthers have outplayed them. The Lions' offense has hummed through everything: 20 touchdowns in five games, +0.13 EPA per play, and 393.8 yards per game — all top-five figures in the league. Those numbers could look better if the Lions weren't one of the worst first-quarter offenses in football: -0.213 adjusted EPA per play in the first quarter, 24th in the league. This proved true against the Cardinals, when the Lions finished the first quarter down 3-0 and looking sluggish before hanging 45 points and six touchdowns in the final three quarters.

The offensive efficiency starts with quarterback Jared Goff: -0.236 adjusted EPA per play in the first quarter, with seven sacks. The Lions get out of the gate too slowly and are too predictable, with not enough deep-throw attempts. Goff hasn't thrown a pick yet this season; he's playing at an Offensive Player of the Year level, but maybe he'll need to reach MVP level as the Lions prepare to face two divisional foes in back-to-back weeks.

The Lions probably would have preferred to face the Packers before Jordan Love caught fire with the deep ball. The Lions have one of the worst defenses in football, but they're the worst at defending the deep ball. Cue the horror-movie "dun dun dun" sound.

Jordan Love and the Packers continued their missile barrage on opposing defenses on Sunday against the Cowboys. It wasn't Love's best game; he delivered a few shots, and the offense gained a few yards, but for the most part, the Dallas defense held its own. Love went 23-of-41 for 276 passing yards, one touchdown, one deep completion, six explosive (15+) pass plays total, a 10.4 average depth of target, and a 74.8 passer rating. Some of those were among the best marks for the Dallas defense, and Detroit could only hope to replicate some of those figures and give Goff and the offense enough chances to win the game.

The Packers' defense really won the game against Dallas. The Packers' defense has produced good numbers this season while facing pedestrian quarterbacks. Still, they faced an elite quarterback in Dak Prescott and made him look pedestrian: 34-of-54, 258 passing yards, a 65.2 passer rating, one touchdown, and one pick. Dak, like Goff, tends to shy away from the deep ball, preferring to defeat defenses with a "Death By A Thousand Paper Cuts" method that usually works if a defense doesn't sit on all the shallow routes because it knows a quarterback can't win deep.

What's at stake? The Packers need this win to surpass or stay pace with the Bears for at least second place in the division. The Vikings, who are in first place, already have a game up on the Packers. The Lions sit in last place in the division and kick off their divisional matchups against the Packers. They probably want and need to make a statement in the matchup.

Are they a real contender or just a good team? Those answers begin to take shape in Week 7.

X-factors: Jordan Love for the Packers. Presumably, the Lions intend to limit deep shots by playing a lot of zone or at least using two-deep coverage. Can Love win between the numbers with short throws — not just a few times, but consistently throughout this game? He didn't find much success in the shallow game; Love threw his only pick on a short out route.

The Detroit defensive line needs to dominate this game. The Packers' offensive line remains one of the worst in football, ranking 32nd in pass-block win rate. They gave up 21 pressures and three sacks to the Cowboys. Detroit's defensive line needs to dominate right now. They rank 14th in pressure, but Aidan Hutchinson and Co. need around five sacks to ease the pressure on their secondary.

I believe Detroit could outduel the Packers as Jordan Love comes down from his high-explosive high and Jared Goff stays consistent. Detroit 35-25.

Colts Vs Vikings

The fire sale in Indy hasn't started yet because the team's principal fired the Colts GM on Monday after the team suffered an embarrassing Week 6 defeat at the hands of the Titans. The sale could start if the Colts can't save their season against the undefeated Vikings, who've had time to prepare for Daniel Jones and the Colts' offense.

The Kevin O'Connell-coached Vikings arrived at 5-0 with an offense as entertaining to watch as the bumper of the car in front of you in a traffic jam. Somehow, the 21.8 points per game the team is averaging feels like an overachievement — it seems more like 14-15 points by watching them — but each week, the Vikings' offense improves.

Kyler Murray has made strides. He passed for 229 passing yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions. His lone touchdown came as a product of a questionable pass into triple coverage that somehow landed in the hands of Justin Jefferson. A few more of those instead of pick-sixes from Murray and the Vikings might have a quarterback on their hands.

Daniel Jones, who could have stayed with the Vikings, didn't cost the Colts the game. He caused the blocked punt. The Titans made some great plays on some balls. Jones lacked a couple of his top weapons, Alex Pierce and Tyler Warren. Jones faltered in a must-win game for the Colts. In Jones' 51 dropbacks, he finished 22-of-42 for 269 passing yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and a 60.5 passer rating against an average Titans pass defense — nowhere close to the guy the Colts paid that big extension for in the offseason.

Jones continued to struggle throwing downfield: 33.1 passer rating on passes 10 air yards or better. He completed just 4-of-17 for 113 yards in Week 5 against the Steelers, followed that up with 4-of-17 against the Titans — -17.4% CPOE.

The Vikings' defense, ranked number one against the pass, number one in EPA, the second-fewest yards per game allowed, and still blitzing at the highest rate in football (67%), is leading the league in pressure rate.

Colts head coach Shane Steichen will coach for his job this week. He needs a good game plan and a strong showing, or he'll find himself as the offensive coordinator for Sean McVay next in Los Angeles or Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, where coaches go to rehabilitate their careers. Steichen's game plan needs to feature a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor in the run game; 21 carries for 94 rushing yards against the Titans isn't enough.

What's at stake: I mentioned that the Colts will mostly implode the roster if they don't get a win on Sunday. Thankfully, the Dolphins have set the standard for massive tear-downs, so the Colts won't look odd losing every game they play next season. The Vikings can't rest on beating the Bears and Packers this season; they need to build a gap in a tough division flush with contenders. The Colts know a thing or two about securing an unlikely win because they gave up one to the Titans in Week 6 — can they flip the script on a rested Vikings team?

Minnesota's defense stays dominant, 24-10 over the Colts.

BROWNS vs TITANS —

Deshaun Watson hasn't played well in the past two games: 31-of-59 (52.5%) for 319 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. But this time, he's not the main problem with the offense. The Browns' receivers have struggled to get open and consistently create separation downfield. Most of the Browns' top options — Denzel Boston with a 38 open score and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. with a 37 open score, according to ESPN, plus Jerry Jeudy at 3.1 and KC Concepcion at 3.5 in average separation — aren't winning. None of the Browns' receivers have generated more than 2 yards per route run or a positive catch rate over expected.

The run game hasn't shown up much this season; the offensive line has struggled, ranking 27th in pass-block win rate and 24th in run-block win rate.

The Titans and their defense seem to thrive against teams like the Colts and the Eagles, who needed a last-minute, game-saving touchdown to avoid defeat in Week 2. Teams that employ mistake-prone quarterbacks but can't turn to another quarterback despite their insecure passing attacks, because those teams owe that quarterback too much money to look away. They carved up Indy's pass protection for 24 pressures and six sacks, and worse of all, most of the Titans' pressure comes up the middle with Jeffrey Simmons — the worst place for pressure against a quarterback.

Some of those sacks fell into the Titans' hands because Daniel Jones turned his "common sense" off for stretches of the game. The Browns have played just as strong against opposing quarterbacks; they've jumped up to 10th in EPA per dropback, 9th in EPA per play allowed since Week 3, and 8th in passing yards allowed per game for the whole season.

What's at stake? The Titans don't have much at stake. They won a game in Week 6 and don't need to win another until Week 18, when a playoff team rests its starters against a last-place team. But they need more development from their young pieces, like quarterback Cam Ward and Carnell Tate. Tate had a strong game against the Colts in Week 6, but Cam hasn't played well all year, and he basically got an A on the group project without contributing much to the win.

No one expected the Browns to lead the AFC North after six weeks, but the way to win the division starts with beating teams like the Titans, securing the easier games, and hoping the rest of the division stumbles.

X-factors for this game: For the Titans, the offensive line protecting Cam Ward. The Browns don't have the same star power — Myles Garrett is somewhere in California and not on the field, traded to the Rams in June and on injured reserve after knee surgery in Week 1 with zero stats in LA so far, and could return to practice next week ahead of Week 8. But Cleveland can still bring the pressure — third in pressure rate and sixth in sack rate. The Titans' offensive line still has a lot to prove this season. If Todd Monken has a run game for his Browns' offense, he's saving it for a rainy day, but the Browns haven't run the ball well through six weeks. Getting started against the Titans in Week 7 — against a tough Titans run defense — would help.

The Titans look poised to pull off another upset, but I believe the Browns' defense makes enough plays on Cam Ward to help Cleveland extend its lead over the division.

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Tampa Bay Vs Carolina.

The Bucs will get starting quarterback Baker Mayfield back in Week 7. He's missed the past three games with a thumb injury on his throwing hand. The Bucs went 1-2 without him after an 0-3 start with him as the starter. The Bucs picked up their first win against the Cowboys in Week 5 in Baker's absence. With a double-digit lead over Pittsburgh, backup rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels could have sparked a quarterback controversy with another win, but two fourth-quarter interceptions doomed the offense.

Todd Bowles turns back to his $165 million man Mayfield, who had played mostly poorly before he left — dead last in EPA per dropback (-0.256), last in sack rate, fifth-to-last in success rate, just two touchdowns in three starts. The time off gave Mayfield time to accept the reality that Mike Evans won't leave sunny Northern California to return to sunny Central Florida to save their season.

The Bucs desperately want one of their current receivers to step up, and that won't be Emeka Egbuka this week — he's out on Sunday, leaving Chris Godwin and rookie Ted Hurst to lead the charge for the Tampa offense.

Bryce Young has shined in the NFC South as other quarterbacks have struggled to make plays to catch up with the Panthers. The Eagles' defense slowed Young down in Week 6 — 20-of-39 for 281 passing yards, -10.7% completion percentage over expected, 91.3 passer rating — but his ten explosive passes for 216 yards made up for some of his inefficiencies. Young continued his streak: 280-plus passing yards in all of his starts this season in 2026. Will he sustain that run against the Bucs' defense?

The Bucs' defense entered Week 6 as one of the best in football. It exited having allowed two second-half touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers, forcing overtime and ultimately surrendering the game to Pittsburgh. Overall, Rodgers needed 56 dropbacks to get to 253 passing yards, an 84.8 passer rating, and one interception.

The Bucs' defense ranks ninth against the pass in football by DVOA, seventh against the run, and eighth in pass EPA allowed, but they get beat deep because they blitz frequently. The Bucs' defense ranks second in blitz rate (42.5%) and 21st in EPA allowed on deep passes (+0.41 EPA per pass). Not the tendency combination you want when facing Young, who boasts a league-high 26.1% explosive rate against the blitz, with 593 yards against the blitz — the second most in the league. Not the best recipe for handling Bryce playing man-to-man defense underneath a two-high shell.

The Bucs have one of the best man-to-man efficiencies in football: -0.139 EPA per dropback in man-to-man defense, second in defensive DVOA, third in completion percentage (-8.89%). The Bucs will face a wide range of Panthers' outside threats, from the top targets Jalen Coker and Tet McMillan to the phantom dangerous tight end Tommy Tremble.

What's at stake? The Panthers have separated themselves from the rest of the division, but they're not safe. The Falcons can ball, the Saints can go, and the Bucs have a good defense. Separation in the NFL matters in the division, and a win over a desperate Tampa Bay squad moves the Panthers another game closer to repeating as champions.

The Bucs can snatch that one momentum-shifting game this week with a win over the Panthers. Tampa, with its defense and what Baker Mayfield has shown in the past, can still disrupt this status quo in the division from last place. Plus, a loss puts Todd Bowles' entire coaching staff in jeopardy.

X-factors: For the Bucs, running back Bucky Irving showed his teeth in Tampa's upset win over the Cowboys — 165 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries — but he's still inconsistent. He disappeared against the Steelers — 19 carries for 46 yards. He got hit behind the line of scrimmage on 68.4% of his runs in Week 6, with -24 rushing yards over expected. The Panthers rank dead last against the run — 5.1 yards per rush allowed, 132.2 yards per game on the ground. The best philosophy for slowing an explosive offense starts with controlling the ball on the ground and limiting opportunities to expose your defense. The Bucs can achieve that model of defensive ball control by rushing the ball.

The Bucs' defensive line: Despite a high blitz rate, the Bucs rank 31st in pressure rate, 12th in pass-rush win rate, and 24th in sack rate. Not the strength of the team's defense. The Bucs win pass-rush reps but don't affect the quarterback or get sacks. They'll need to disrupt Bryce Young and his rhythm in this game on Sunday, keep him from stringing together multiple completions in a row with and without blitzing. The Panthers' offensive line has struggled this season — 26th in pass-block win rate, 24th in PFF pass-block grade.

Verdict: With Baker Mayfield back, the energy will return to the Bucs' offense, but so will the stagnation. I don't think Bryce Young has a great game, but I believe he makes enough plays to push the Panthers to a 24-17 win.