NFl Week 6 previews,
A couple of seasons will end in Week Six. Not mathematically, but theoretically, teams like the Chargers and Texans will face a long walk down the tunnel if they don’t follow Jameis Winston's lead and “Eat a W” this weekend. The Cowboys and Eagles will find their seasons on early life support if they drop one this week, and the Colts will live to fight into Week Seven because they should take care of the Titans. The Vikings' undefeated start will move to Week Seven after their Week Six bye, and the Chiefs and Niners should meet them there, facing the Chargers and Commanders, respectively. However, the Chargers and Commanders haven’t gone away easily, if only by their own hands, in recent weeks.
Eagles vs. Panthers
The Eagles have suffered two crushing back-to-back losses in Weeks Four and Five, watching victory sit within reach, only to see their opponents snatch it away in the closing moments. After the Eagles' Week Three debacle against the Rams, when they went 0-for-13 on third down, the injury-riddled, offensive-line-shattered Eagles couldn't match that performance.
They lost on a last-second field goal set up by outstanding Jaguars special-teams play. It looked like only one team came prepared for that scenario, and the Jags pulled out the victory despite the Eagles controlling the odds for much of the game.
Jalen Hurts’ limitations as a passer were again On Full display As The eagles Sought To Finish the Jags. Late in the fourth quarter, with the Eagles nursing a lead, Hurts completed a pass outside the numbers along the sideline to rookie Makai Lemon, who stepped out of bounds and stopped the clock. That one instant of poor clock management guaranteed Jacksonville one last possession on Sunday morning.
As the Eagles return to America to face the Panthers, they must pack a run game. They lost third-string running back Will Shipley to a foot injury on Sunday; he started in place of the injured Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby. Philly mustered just 22 yards on the ground against the Jags. The Eagles also expect their leading receiver, DeVonta Smith, to return from injury. Without Smith, Hurts averaged 3.4 yards per pass and 5.5 yards per carry. The Eagles have found a gem in wide receiver Darius Cooper. He leads the team in receiving touchdowns with four total, three of them in his past two outings.
The sizzling Panthers enter Week Six off their bye, a one-week break that could mess up the offense’s mojo: “Dont Leave While You're Hot Thats How Mase Screwed Up,” a little Kanye West. The Panthers’ offense played so well in Week Four that the Lions’ defense became the most publicized and scrutinized attribute of the Week following Sunday night’s outcome: 445 yards of offense and +0.276 EPA per play. The Panthers have the fourth-ranked offense according to PFF rating, seventh in ESPN FPI efficiency, and eighth in EPA per play.
The Panthers entered 2026 expecting a leap from quarterback Bryce Young. He’s put himself in the MVP conversation: 1,268 yards, 7.8 yards per attempt, nine touchdowns, 9.8 air yards per attempt, +5.7% completion percentage over expected, and two interceptions—all top-ten figures in the NFL. You couldn’t draw up a matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions as the season approaches its incline. If the Eagles’ defense got carved up by Trevor Lawrence—332 passing yards, heavy doses of explosive pass plays, and two touchdowns—but picked him off once, forced him to a 61.5% completion rate, and kept the Jags from scoring in two goal-to-go situations, there are still reasons for optimism.
What’s at stake for both teams? The Panthers have seized complete control of the NFC South, with at least a game and a half over every team in the division. But, like Darth Plagueis the Wise in the Star Wars series, who killed his master but sought not to suffer the same fate, the Panthers chased down the collapsing Bucs to win the NFC South on the final day of the season, despite losing two games to close the year. The Panthers need to sustain momentum, win games, and keep playing at a high level rather than counting on the rest of the division to submit six weeks in.
The Eagles have lost three straight games, but to break the current losing streak, Philly needs to get something working on offense that signals a step forward, because the team appears headed for another offensive meltdown. The Eagles have two X-factors heading into Sunday’s matchup. Short on bodies and short on impact this season, the team will need to control the ball. In both of Philly’s most recent losses, situational football betrayed them because they couldn’t pick up short yardage in critical situations.
The Eagles’ secondary has been exposed downfield against the Rams and Jags. Truthfully, neither Lawrence nor Stafford has played at Bryce Young’s level on downfield passes. Young ranks second in completions, second in deep-pass grade, and third in yards per attempt. Except for Quinyon Mitchell, the rest of the Eagles will be on high alert.
For the Panthers, the X-factor is the offensive line, one of the worst in football: 27th in pass-block win rate. Young’s mobility has helped keep his pressure-to-sack rate submerged. A leaky offensive line could spark the Eagles' pass rush and help them upset the Panthers.
Packers vs. Cowboys
The president needs to address the public on Sunday morning, saying that when citizens of the Western world hear explosions on Sunday night, World War III—the zombie apocalypse—has kicked off. Still, the Cowboys and Packers have already kicked off. Both of these offenses can go off. Both rely heavily on their passing attacks.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott ranks fifth in pass rate over expected, completion percentage, and success rate, and second in plus-EPA percentage. The Cowboys’ offense relies heavily on Dak's dropback success to lift them into games, like his big performance against Houston in Week Four, or doom them with two interceptions against the Bucs on Thursday night in Week Five. Like the Cowboys, the Packers rely heavily on their passing attack and Jordan Love, but in different ways. The Cowboys operate efficiently: they lead the league in first-down percentage (80%), and Dak ranks second in first downs thrown. Love leans on explosive downfield throws that eat up large chunks of the field in one sweep, with a 9.3-yard average depth of target.
He showcased his downfield prowess against the Bears in Week Five, completing 6 of 8 passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield for 258 yards and two touchdowns. He finished 25 of 31 for 367 yards, a 137.5 passer rating, +0.51 EPA per attempt, and two touchdowns. Of course, we have to separate the Love who played like a “Scrub” for most of the first four games of the season. Love completed just 55.1% of his passes, generated -0.008 EPA per dropback, and posted a 39.6% success rate and -12.1 completion percentage over expected. He completed four of his 18 serious attempts for 144 yards before catching fire against the Bears’ woefully inept secondary.
The Cowboys’ defense has always found ways to bring out the best in the quarterbacks they’ve faced, and Jordan Love is confident in his deep ball and his receivers downfield. The Cowboys’ pass defense is the worst in terms of EPA per pass allowed, with just five sacks on the season—somehow not the worst figure in the sport—and ranks fourth-worst in pressures generated. The Cowboys’ defense has the 30th-worst first-down rate allowed and the second-worst punt rate forced.
The Packers can flex a good pass defense: fifth in passing yards allowed and pressure rate, and fourth in EPA per pass. But you could argue the Packers haven’t faced any elite-tier quarterbacks. Geno Smith and Michael Penix serve as the best quarterbacks they’ve faced, followed by a string of backup-level players: Carson Wentz, Tyson Bagent, and rookie Jalon Daniels in his first start in place of Baker Mayfield.
What’s at stake for both squads? The football-state dictum says, “You are what your record says you are,” and while that’s not always true, the 2-3 Cowboys and 3-2 Packers exemplify mediocrity. Both teams see themselves as contenders coming into the season, so who, through this game, decides to launch themselves into another stratosphere, starting with this Week Six matchup?
The defense won’t serve as the X-factor for the Cowboys, because they’re not good and won’t play well on Sunday. Instead, it’s the Cowboys’ run game. The new football philosophy for slowing down an explosive offense starts with ball control, limiting the number of shots a high-level marksman gets to crack open your defense. Dak and the Cowboys’ passing game have sheltered their run game for much of the season. Javonte Williams had 1,201 rushing yards in his first season with the Cowboys in 2025, at 4.8 yards per carry. Still, that number has dropped to 3.7 yards per carry in 2026. The Cowboys have a top-ten rushing success rate of 43.6% and a top-ten EPA per rush of -0.036, but those figures are only relative to the league and aren’t great overall.
Jordan Love and the Packers' intermediate passing success will represent the Packers' X-factor in this matchup. The Packers have the worst run game in football in EPA per rush and rushing yards per game; they scored their first rushing touchdown of the season in Week Five. Even if Jordan Love stays hot deep, the Packers will need to keep the ball out of Dak Prescott’s hands and not count on the defense to contain Dallas’s offense. Love will need to sustain bursts of offense and avoid big swings downfield that can go either way, but that could also give Prescott and Dallas more control over the clock and the game.
The Packers built their receiver roster for deep throws. Both Matthew Golden and Christian Watson average better than 16 yards per catch, with average depth of target of 14.5 and 13.9 yards, respectively. Matt LaFleur will have to rein in that depth for Sunday’s matchup.
Verdict: The Packers showed the best iteration of their offense in Week Five, but playing that style of ball against a team that can match and outplay them could backfire. The Cowboys outgun the Packers, 38-35.
Raiders vs. Bills
The NFL season happens week to week, but a shift in temperature can make any team’s moment happen from one moment to the next. Good fades fast, and the Raiders’ 2026 season exemplifies that reality. Back in Week Three, the Raiders looked like the sport’s new upstart: a new regime building its offense around a relic of a quarterback and making it not just functional but impressive. Underneath, though, the run to an early undefeated record looked more like flash than substance. Watching the Raiders look entertaining again mattered to football.
The Raiders have now dropped two in a row, and while their 3-0 start will forever live in the hearts of their fans, after a blowout loss to the Patriots in Week Five, the thought that Kirk Cousins and Klint Kubiak could turn this run into a playoff run looks like a pipe dream. The Raiders will face the Bills and possibly the worst man any team wants to face when needing to correct a bender: Josh Allen. He’s still in a slump, coming off a game against the Rams in which he went 12 of 19 for 210 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The last three weeks haven’t been Allen’s best football. His passer ratings over his last three matchups were 96.4, 89.6, and 54.0, far below the 120-plus mark he set earlier in the season. His PFF passing grade has plummeted, coinciding with the absence and limitations of his top receiver, DJ Moore. His 64.8 PFF passing grade ranks 22nd at the position, and he’s climbing the ranks in terms of turnover-worthy plays. Allen out-Kahunah’d the Chargers and rushed all over the Rams for 121 yards to help the Bills deliver an overtime win.
The Raiders’ pass defense has not looked good so far this season. The Raiders rank third-worst in PFF coverage grade, which helps explain why they’ve played so many down-to-the-wire games early in the season. They’re eighth in EPA per play allowed and eighth in yards per play allowed on pass plays. The Bills, however, might be exactly what Kirk Cousins needs to “Get Back Right”: they’re dead last in coverage grade, giving up 280.4 passing yards per game (second-most) and ranking fifth-worst in EPA per pass play. Cousins didn’t necessarily start to show his age against the Patriots—he went 19 of 28 for 244 passing yards, one touchdown, and a 106.8 passer rating—but he couldn’t quite lift the offense out of the grave or keep up with Drake Maye before the coaching staff pulled him from the game.
What’s at stake for both teams? Outside of Josh Allen needing to regain his mojo, the Bills have already lost one matchup with the Patriots this season, and losing to the Raiders would give the Patriots an edge in the record-versus-the-same-opponents category. If the Patriots and Bills split their matchups and sweep the rest of the division, a game against the Raiders could decide the tiebreakers for the division crown or conference championship.
The Raiders need to stem the tide. The easiest part of the Raiders' season is behind them. Vegas has three early wins in the win column, but if they can snatch a competitive win from a team like the Bills, they could build the confidence to take on tougher opponents down the line. If not, Raiders fans will always look to their 3-0 start for hope, just like Colts fans cling to their 8-2 start of 2025.
The X-factors for the Bills: the pass rush. Without the blitz, 38-year-old Kirk Cousins can diagnose a blitz like an epidemiologist diagnoses the flu. Cousins didn’t flinch against the Patriots’ blitz, posting +0.32 EPA per dropback against the blitz, but against pressure—blitzes don’t always yield pressure—he posted -0.43 EPA per dropback. Unfortunately, the Bills have talent along the defensive line—Deone Walker, Bradley Chubb, and Greg Rousseau—but lack output, ranking ninth in pressure rate according to NFL Pro Stats.
The X factor for the Raiders: Ashton Jeanty and the Raiders’ run game, which will face the Bills’ 19th-ranked run defense by DVOA and 23rd-ranked defense by DVOA against running backs as receivers. Jeanty has looked like one of the worst picks in recent history, even compared with how bad the pick looked in real time. But the Raiders need to get something from anyone other than their tight end, plus a surprise touchdown or splash play by Enter Random Raider Receiver Name Here Please, not only to take pressure off Cousins but also to allow Las Vegas to win games by controlling the clock instead of trying to outscore opponents on every possession.
How I see it: The Raiders have two fatal flaws that will doom them in this game. The Raiders have struggled mightily to cover deep passes. Their safety play has doomed the defense, giving up over 200 yards on explosive plays and 140-plus yards on deep passes in each of their last two contests. Rookie safety Treydan Stukes has taken the worst of the damage on big plays downfield. Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the business on deep passes, and even when he’s struggling, he can still hit big. The Raiders' other flaw is covering running backs; they rank last in defensive DVOA there. Josh Allen puts together one of his best performances of the season, and the Raiders don’t have the firepower to hold on late.
Patriots Vs Jets
Drake Maye has started to play as the Drake Maye Patriots fans sat at the foot of their NFL Pro subscription, waiting to witness. He’s kicked his debilitating dependence on turnovers at least slightly. He’s still second in interception-worthy throw rate and sixth in turnover-worthy play rate—two stats designed by different companies that tell the same story of Maye’s struggle to control his appetite for destruction. He’s coming off his best game of the season against the Raiders’ defense. A lot of what made Maye special in 2025 carried over to 2026: he’s still one of the most explosive pass-play generators, ranking second in yards per attempt at 8.4, fifth in completed air yards, and first in completion percentage over expected. Across the Patriots’ two-game win streak (Weeks 4–5), he’s led the league in EPA and passing yards, ranked second in success rate and EPA per dropback, and led in yards per attempt, with a 5:1 touchdown-to-interception rate.
At 3–2, the Patriots have dominated two of the weakest pass defenses over the past two weeks, as the narrative about the Patriots playing “weaker” opponents persists—even as their schedule continues. They’ll face the Jets, the fourth-best pass defense and the best overall defense according to DVOA. The Jets allow just 4.9 yards per pass play, with relatively unknown players on pass defense getting strong contributions from guys like Minkah Fitzpatrick and cornerback Brandon Stephens, as well as guys like Azareye’h Thomas and Dane Belton, who have made serious contributions to the Jets’ pass defense.
You know who else has contributed to the New York pass defense? Their opponents. The Jets’ defense just shut down the Deshaun Watson-led passing attack. Watson played better than expected, but he’s not elite. Neither are Cam Ward, Tyson Bagent, or Week 2 Jordan Love. The Jets haven’t faced a quarterback or passing offense of Drake Maye's caliber, and the Patriots have built steam in recent weeks.
What’s at stake? The Patriots can’t afford to slip up against a Jets team not expected to make the playoffs as they seek to chase down the Bills in the division and other opponents in the conference. The Jets have played a lot of competitive football this season—more than anyone expected—and have lost multiple one-score games. A win over the Patriots might not save their season, but it would deal a crushing blow to a division foe.
The Patriots’ offensive line will serve as the team’s X-factor. The unit played mostly mediocre football through the first five weeks, ranking 12th in both pass-block and run-block win rates. But they’ve lost left tackle Will Campbell for an extended period, as first-round pick Caleb Lomu will slot in his place. The Jets’ pass rush enters Week 6 with a top-10 pressure rate and pass-rush win rate, led by rookie sensation and second overall pick David Bailey, who nabbed three sacks against the Browns. He’s an absolute game wrecker, and he’ll most likely have the advantage no matter which tackle he lines up over—Morgan Moses or Caleb Lomu. The Patriots will have to chip or slide in his direction nearly every down.
The Jets’ X-factor is the pass-catching unit. Last season, Garrett Wilson led the team in receiving yards with 395 despite missing ten games. He’s at 375 through five games this season. Still, he’s the only real receiver the Jets have consistently gotten involved in the offense. Isaiah Williams ranks second on the team in receiving yards with 151, 58 of which came on a touchdown pass against the Bears in Week 4. Rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq had 103 yards against the Lions in Week 3 and just three yards since.
The Patriots have really good corners, and they expect to get Christian Gonzalez back after he missed two games with a shoulder injury. Garrett Wilson said he expects a big game, and even if he delivers, his talent alone won't lift the Jets over New England.
The Jets have a good thing going, losing in competitive one-score matchups and keeping their eyes on another top-five pick in the upcoming draft. Not that they would beat New England otherwise, but staying the course on their centuries-long rebuild serves as the best course of action as the Jets find a way to lose a close one, 28–20, to New England.
Jaguar Vs Texans
Good Vibes All Around as the Texans and the Jaguars Meet in Jolly Ole England
The Texans picked up their first win of the season in Week Five, dropping the winless Titans to 0-5. The Jaguars pulled off a stunning defeat of the Eagles on a last-second 57-yard field goal to get their extended London stay off to a rousing start.
C.J. Stroud took a while to get going against the Titans. The Texans didn’t register their first touchdown until the third quarter. This offense went toe-to-toe with the Cowboys just one week earlier. Had they not been playing against Cam Ward and his offensive line that blocks ghosts, the Texans would have needed a tombstone for their 2026 season at 0-5. Stroud ultimately finished strong: 26/34, a 76.5% completion percentage, one touchdown, zero interceptions, +0.24 EPA per dropback, and two sacks. He hasn't thrown a pick this season. Stroud ranks eighth in PFF passing grade, positive play percentage, and first in accuracy over expected; he’s not the problem in Houston.
The problem is Houston’s coverage unit. It’s strange to look up and down stat boards and see the Texans at the bottom in coverage: ranked 30th in receptions surrendered and 13th-worst in PFF coverage grade. Just a few months ago, they looked like the best defense in football, but teams have figured out their match-zone coverages and are exploiting the “weaker” spots in the zones.
Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence will find the weak point in any defense and exploit it, just like they did against the Eagles. Lawrence ranks second in EPA per drop against Cover Four defense, the Texans’ primary defensive structure, and he’s consistently throttled defenses on deep passes, with a 56.5% success rate and +0.971 EPA per dropback on serious attempts. Lawrence’s connection with his new top receiver, Parker Washington, has proven particularly difficult for defenses to game plan for. Washington has caught four touchdowns through five games, with a 13.1-yard average depth of target, 22.4 yards per catch, +0.57 EPA per play, and a 25.2% target rate from Lawrence.
The Texans' defense allowed the sixth-highest rate of explosive passes through four weeks, at 17.7%, before they shut down Cam Ward and the Titans. The Texans have traditionally struggled against deep passes, even at the height of their defensive dominance. Still, their pressure and pass rush always kept serious attempts at a premium. This season, that’s changed as the Texans' pressure has lost some of its sting.
What’s at stake? In every superhero movie, the supervillain makes one perfunctory mistake: not destroying the hero once they capture the adversary. The Jags have the chance to crush a still-dangerous Texans team that only needs a few wins to build momentum. For the Texans, they can’t let the Jags extinguish this faint ember of hope sparked after their first win.
The X-factors: The Jags’ offense suffered some situational lapses in Week Four that scrubbed points off the board in their one-point win over the Eagles. But I’ll choose the Jags’ pass defense, which gives up a lot of yardage—266.2 passing yards, third-worst—but has the sixth-best EPA per play allowed (-0.16 EPA per pass play) and has allowed just four passing touchdowns. This style of defense fits the bill for the Texans and C.J. Stroud, who can generate yards but not many points throughout this 1-4 start. The Texans will add a new receiver in Marvin Harrison to pair with Nico Collins; the Jags can’t let the Texans' passing attack crack the end zone.
Houston's X-factor is the pass rush. It’s still one of the best in the league, with both Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter owning real estate in the top ten of pressure production. But Hunter only recently jumped into the top ten after an 11-pressure game against the woeful Titans. Through Week Four, the Texans ranked 26th in overall pressure rate and 31st in average time to pressure, at 3.52 seconds—and that’s with Will Anderson dominating the league for much of the season's start.
The Jags' offense suffered a serious loss at left tackle, with Anton Harrison out for an extended period with a knee injury, and the unit had issues before Anton went down. The Texans’ pass rush may only now be coming into form after roughing up the Titans. I’m sure the Jags will watch the video of Dan Moore Jr. blocking the wind and know how to pick up a blitz, but the force of Houston’s edge talent will nullify the Jags’ efforts.
I think the Texans pull out the upset in a defensive struggle, 23-20.
