NFL Week 13 Previews

NFL Week 13 Previews

The NFL's Thanksgiving slate of games left me a bit exhausted. To top it off, the league added a "Black Friday" game, along with an interesting matchup between the Eagles and the Bears, where Chicago convincingly defeated the reigning champions. Below, I've outlined five games on the schedule for Sunday and beyond.

Colts vs Texans

Has The Veneer Of Early Season Success Finally Lifted Off The Colts? Had Indy Only Lost A week 12 to Patrick Mahomes in overtime Time, Maybe The “Vibes” Around The Once Dominant Colts wouldn’t Emanate So Dourly. The Colts Lost After Surrendering A Double Figure Lead on A Day When Jonathan Taylor Couldn’t Activate His Alter Ego, and Daniel Jones Failed To Make The Chiefs Pay For Committing To Stopping The Run. For the Colts' Success, Still Number One In EPA Per Play, and Just Under 50% success, They Regressed In Recent Weeks. They Look A lot More Beatable Beyond The slip-up they Suffered Against The Rams. The Offense Played It’s Worse Game This Season, -0.004 EPA play with It’s lowest success rate 38.0% Of This Season And 255 total Yardage, 8 Yards Of Offense In The Fourth Quarter and Over Time, No First Downs in The Final 18 Minutes Of The Game a Combine 11.1% Success Rate In The Fourth Quarter, 0% Success Rate On Rushing Attempts. The Colts' Margin Of Victory In Most Of Their Wins Has Prevented Daniel Jones From Facing Too Many Close-Quarter Battles This Season Or Much of His Career. He’s generating a Sports A 89.3 Passer Rating and Seven Picks In Games Decided Seven Or Less Points. Jonathan Taylor Usually Takes On The Heavy Lifting Late In The Game, Averaging More Than Seven Yards Per Carry In The Fourth quarter, Despite A 36.4% fourth-quarter rushing Success Rate For The Team Because They Generate Explosive runs, 15.6%, In The Fourth Quarter. The Texans' Defense Might Prove The Perfect Kryptonite To The Jones and the Colts, With Two Of The Best Pressure Producers In Edge Rusher Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, Both Top ten Pass rushers with 57 Plus Pressures Individually. The Colts' Offensive Line Ranks 27th In Pass Block Win Rate. The Texans Also Allowed The Fourth Lowest Rushing Yards Per Game, 4.01 Yards Per Attempt Surrendered. The Texans Pass Defense Forces A Passer Rating Of 73.3 When Playing Man Defense and Over His Last Three Games Has Generated A 53.50 Passer Rating Against Man Coverage Over His Last Three Games. Daniel Jones Will Have to do More Than “Better” To Fend Off Division Hopefuls From Stealing The Colts' Magical Run So Far. The Colts Defense Hasn’t Stood Out In Any One Area, 8th In Passer Rating Allowed But fifth In Passing Yards Allowed(245.8 Per Game), A Reflection Of The Volume Of Pass Attempts They’ve Face(422), Fourth Most In Football. The Colts Usually Hold Leads Late In The Game, Forcing More Dropbacks, Such as In The Kansas City Game, where Patrick Mahomes took 54 Dropbacks, 46 passing attempts, 29 Completions For 353 Passing Yards, One Pick, and a Passer Rating Of 77.5. The Colts only managed 12 Pressures, 0 Sacks. Indy Attempted To Address this By Trading for Sauce Gardner, but I’m wondering if the Colts Traded For The Wrong Jets’ Superstar and should’ve added interior defensive Lineman Quinnen Williams. The Texans' Offense Will Most Likely Feature CJ Stroud Returning From A Game Absence and The Texans' Current Winstreak Due To Concussion Symptoms. Under Davis Mills, the Texans' offense has moved to 12th in points per play at 0.39; they rank 9th worst for the season at 0.35. The Colts Defense Plays Zone Around 63.52%, Stroud Generates -0.028 EPA Per Dropback versus Zone and A 0.033 EPA Per Dropback This Season. Zone Coverages Force Stroud To Hold The Ball Longer, Often Processing Changes In Coverage But Also Inviting Pressure, Sacks, and Negative Plays. The Texans' Defense Could Strip Down This Colts Offense, but I’m Worried That CJ Stroud and the offense won’t make enough Strides Offensively To Win This Game Against A Still Elite Colts Team.

Vikings Vs Seahawks

Unfortunately, JJ McCarthy won’t suit up for the Vikings, Or Maybe Some Good Fortune exists for the Vikings--Not In A Morose Way-- as they face former Vikings starter and now superstar quarterback Sam Darnold. I Say “Fortunately,” The Vikings Signed Darnold As A Back to McCarthy, The 10th Overall Pick, Who Suffered An Injury Opening The Door For Darnold To Start, Producing A Career Season, Leading The Vikings To 14 Wins and A Playoff Berth In The Wake Of Ending the Kirk Cousins Era. The Vikings Felt Comfortable Enough with McCarthy To Not Only Let Sam Darnold Walk But Also Not Open Competition and Offer A Greater Offer To Daniel Jones Long Term. The Vikings have the worst quarterback play in football, except maybe Jacksonville, this season. However, at the time, I thought the Vikings made the right decision on Sam Darnold, and the Seahawks probably agree. With His Four Interception Outing Past Him But not All The Say Past Sam Darnold Bounce Back Against The Titans, 15/26 For 248 Passing 16.5 Per Completion. Most Of his Yards Came On Four Plays, 148 Yards On Explosive Pass Plays, So He’s Not Changing His Style. Darnold Hunts The Knockout Blow and The Vikings Know His Repertoire Well. The Vikings Defense He Faced Has Played Pretty Up and Down This Season, but Overall, allowing -0.035 EpA per passing play and A 57% Success Rate Against Opponents. The Defense Generally Keeps Score Close Despite Playing Against Both Their Own Offense and Opposing Offenses. The Vikings Offense Generated the Fourth Fewest First Downs Per Game, and the Browns Offense Remarkably Saved the Vikings From Last Place in Their Last Five Games, During Which They Constantly Put Their Own Defense In Adverse Situations. The Defensive Line Ranks Third In Pass Rush Win Rate, And Pressure Could Muddy The View For Darnold. The Vikings' Defense Ranks 10th-worst against Explosive Plays, 27th against explosive Pass plays (17.32%) Against Their Secondary. Undrafted Free Agent Quarterback Max Brosmer Will Take The Helm In Minnesota. I could say he doesn't play Worse Than McCarthy, But For Now, The Quarterbacks Before Brosmer Set The Bar low. The Vikings let Darnold Walk And Use The Cap Space saved to Rebuild The Interior Of The Offensive Line, A Problem Darnold Faced In His One Season As The team’s Starter. Minnesota Ranks 23rd in Pass Block Win Rate and Number One In Run Block Win Rate. The Seahawks' Defensive Line performed poorly on 40 Pressures Against The Titans and Cam Ward in Week 12, 4 Sacks. If The Vikings Could Slow Seahawks’ Dynamic Receiver Jaxson Smith-Njigba Down, Something No Other Team Has Accomplished Thus Far This Season, He Posted 167 on The Titans, Minnesota Could Theoretically Slow Darnold and The Seattle Pass Game Down. Seattle’s Passing Game Targets JSN 0.37 Times Per Route Run, The Highest Of Any Receiver In The League, and far Ahead Of Seattle’s Second-Highest Targeted Player, Cooper Kupp, 0.19 Targets Per Route Run.

Bucs Vs Cardinals

The Bucs Have Fallen Quite Strikingly From Their early-season Success, But I’m Not Prepared To Count Them Out As Contenders In The NFC. A Healthy Tampa Offense Would Prove The Best In Football, But They Haven’t Come Close To Full Health In Some Time. Thankfully, the Panthers' Loss Helps Keep The Bucs In The driver's Seat In The NFC South Down The Stretch Of The Season. The Bucs Will Face The Cardinals And A Defense That Picked Off Trevor Lawrence, Held The Former Number One Pick To an 81.4 Passer Rating, But The Passing Defense Has Looked A lot Less Robust, 105.8 Passer Rating Allowed Over The Last Three Games and Only Posted 14 Pressures And Three Sacks Total Against Trevor Lawrence While Giving Up Eight Explosive Passing Plays and Three Touchdowns. A Dropback Heavy Game From Jacoby Brissett (58 Dropbacks), 33/49 Couldn’t Bail The Cardinals Offense Out of A Negative Production Game, -0.138 EPA Per Plays, not When They Give Up 42 Pressures. Baker Mayfield Needs A Right Game In Week 13 Against The Cardinals. He Got Dinged Up Against The Rams, suffering a Shoulder Injury, and He Also Played poorly. Mayfield Hasn’t Looked Near The MVP Form He Started With, Not Since The Niners Game. Over The Pass Three Games, His Deep Pass Attempts Have Drop From the Top Ten To the Bottom In a Short Span. Defenses Have Deployed More Zone Coverages, forcing Mayfield and the Bucs to operate just A tick Slower Than What We Witnessed Earlier In The Season. The Bucs Not Only Need To Beat The Cardinals but also blast Arizona in pursuit Of Another Momentum Run Headed Towards The Playoffs.

Panthers Vs Rams

Rest In Peace To The Panthers Run As the feel-good story Of The Season and On The Most Awkward Of Losses. The Panthers' Defense Played as well as their Talent Allowed Them to turn Brock Purdy Over Three Times, and held the Niners’ offense to 0.000 EPA Per Play, The Type Of Game Only a “Bad” Offense Could Ruin, which happened. Bryce Young Threw An Endzone Interception When He could’ve run for A Short two-yard score. Bryce Young Threw Two Picks Of His Own, Resulting In A Net Negative For The Drop-back offense -0.45 EPA Per Pass Play. The Play Calling Felt Strange Given that The Panthers Averaged 5.3 Yard Per Carry, +0.14 EPA Per Run Play, But Only Ran 13 Run Plays. Maybe Bryce Young’s 400 Plus 400-plus-yard performance coaxed Dave Canales Into Proving He Could be A Broken Quarterback, and The Strategy backfired. The Panthers will Face The Rams, The Best Team In Football, With The Best Quarterback In Football. Matthew Stafford stretched his Touchdown total Out To 30 on Sunday Night With Three touchdowns and No Picks Against Tampa Bay. For The Season, The Panthers' Pass Defense Has Held Passers To an 87.3 Passer Rating, 202 Passing Yards Per Game. If the Panthers Defense Plays Primarily Zone In Coverage, Stafford Against Zone Coverage +0.173 EPA Per Dropback and A 97.5 Passer Rating, 8.23 Adjusted Net Yards Versus Zone, But He’s A lot More Effective Against Man Coverage, 118.50 Passer Rating and A 9.51 Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, So Pick Your Poison With Stafford. On Offense, the Panthers Find Themselves forced to Abandon The Run Game Again, This Time not By Volition. The Rams Rank Second In run Stop Win Rate, So Another Rico Dowdle “Buckle Up” Kind Of Game looks far-fetched. This Rams Defense Has Also Shut Down Nearly Every Quarterback They’ve Faced In recent Weeks, 69.6 Passer Rating Allowed Over The Past Three Games Against Baker Mayfield, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, and Mac Jones. Bryce Young Would Have To Produce A Tectonic Passing Game For The Panthers To Pull Out The Upset Against The Best Team In Football.

New England Patriots vs New York Giants

A Hyped Battle Between Young Quarterbacks As Drake Maye and Jaxson Dart Take Center Stage On Monday Night, Reigniting An Old Rivalry Between Two Teams Currently Headed In Two Opposite Directions. The Patriots Stand AT 9-2, The Best Record In The AFC, A Record No One Outside Of Someone With The Mirror GaDrial Could’ve Seen Coming. In This Age Of Football Wins Don’t Mean Everything. When A team faces the Easiest Schedule In The Sport and enters Week 13 Off Of An Unconvincing Win against one Of The Worst Teams In Football, and faces another Middling Team Ahead in the Giants. NFL Reporters Confirmed That Giants Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart will Return To The Starting Lineup In Week 13 after A Game Absence Upon Clearing Concussion Protocol, Ending A “Fun-Run” of Manning The Starting Gears By the Giants’ backup Quarterback Jameis Winston. Jameis, in two starts, provided the Giants with moments of hysteria, effectiveness, and wholesomeness. Fans want to witness the continued growth of Dart, who also brought many of those same qualities, but in a more lively and frenetic energy. Can The Giants Prioritize Darts Development Without Putting His Future In Jeopardy Like Brian Daboll? Before The Injury, and currently, Dart Ranks Top Five Amongst Quarterbacks In Explosive Runs(12) and Rushing Yards per game At Quarterback (44.60/2nd-best mark In The League). The Patriots’ defense Has Generated The best Tackle Rate In Football This Season, 8.39% missed Tackle percentage. After the loss to the Lions, the Giants became the first team eliminated from the playoffs. The Titans remain mathematically alive in their division until Sunday’s finals, giving the Giants an early start to the offseason. The Patriots Wrapped Up A Ninth Straight Victory Against The Bengals In Week 12, But The Offense Stalled In The Second Half, Making The Game Closer In The End Than The Quality Of Play Both Teams Demonstrated On The Live Broadcast. The Patriots lost their Premier Left Tackle and Fourth Overall Pick, Will Campbell, To A Knee Injury, A Loss That Would Hurt The Team Otherwise, But Poses A Major Issue Against The Giants, Who Feature a Capable Pass Rush. While Not Elite in Terms Of Pressure Numbers, The Giants' Defensive Line Deploys Two Top 15 Edge Rusher In Rookie Abdul Carter and Star Edge Brian Burn, As Well As Dexter Lawrence, The Top Rushing Defensive Tackle. Drake Maye’s Numbers Remain Superb: 71% Completion Percentage, 8.8 Yards Per Attempt, 110.7 Passer Rating, +91.1 Passing EPA, and 21 Touchdowns. He’s Shown A Proclivity For Turnovers, Particularly Fumbles When Pressured. The Patriots' Pass Defense Remains A Point of Concern. The Secondary Gave Up Several Big Plays To A Short-Handed Bengals Wide Receiver Corp, Including A Big Touchdown To Receiver Mitch Tinsley Over All-Pro Corner Christian Gonzales. The Patriots didn’t surrender high-level stats to Joe Flacco, But The Pats didn’t Exactly Dominate The Easier Competition. The Patriots Find Themselves On High Trap Game Alert, The Giants Have Nothing To Lose But Their Position In The Draft Order, and Pulling Off An Upset in Prime Time Could Mean More To The Giants.