NFL Super Bowl Preview.
Summary :The Super Bowl matchup features the Seahawks and Patriots, both of whom rebounded from missing the playoffs the previous season. The Patriots improved dramatically from a four-win team, benefiting from an easy schedule, winning 14 games, and reclaiming the AFC East title.
Quarterback Drake Maye, the third overall pick, became pivotal in their rise, recording MVP-worthy stats in the regular season with 4,394 passing yards, a 72% completion rate, and 31 touchdowns. However, his playoff performance dipped, showing struggles against top defenses, particularly the Texans and Broncos, where he faced significant pressure and turnovers.
The Seahawks' defense faced challenges in their playoff game against the Rams, allowing Matthew Stafford to perform effectively, highlighting weaknesses in their secondary. Despite this, rookie safety Nick Emmanwori showcased strong individual performance.
As both teams head into the Super Bowl, the matchup promises an intriguing clash of strengths and weaknesses.
Original:So Here We Have The Unlikeliest Of Super Bowl matchups as Both The Seahawks and the Patriots Rebounded From Missing The Playoffs The Previous Season. The Patriots improved from a four-win team—just one loss away from the number one pick in the previous season—by benefiting from the easiest schedule in the league. They won 14 games, reclaimed the AFC East title, and carried that momentum forward into the Playoffs.
The Patriots missed the playoffs last season due to losing their quarterback to injury, but their current roster possesses championship composure. This Super Bowl-caliber roster was built through the draft and free agency, guided by a new yet familiar coaching staff led by Mike Vrabel. He assembled an impressive team, which includes the return of longtime Patriots staff member Josh McDaniels as the Offensive Coordinator.McDaniels Above All Else Has Proven Crucial, Almost Irreplaceable To The Patriots Success Because Few If Any Coordinators In Football Match His Track Record, He’s Witnessed Nearly all A Football Mind Can Witness In two Decades Plus In The Sport As Both a Head Coach and an Offensive Coordinator For Nine Championship Appearances.McDaniels understands all the new iterations, the variations, and the influence of every defensive philosophy ever conceived. This knowledge enables him to develop game plans and make in-game adjustments.
Quarterback And Former Third Overall Pick Drake Maye Became The Catalyst For The Teams Rise With MVP Worthy Play In 2025, 4394 Passing Yards, 258.5 Passing Yards per Game, 72.0% Completion Percentage Doubling His Touchdown Output From 15 To 31, Decreasing His Interception Rate From 3.0% To 1.6%, 9.46 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt, 77.1 QBr, and A 113.5 Passer Rating. He’s Career Season From Matthew Stafford Short Of Winning An MVP. Maye’s play at quarterback has sharply declined in these playoffs, 55.8% Completion Percentage, 31.5 Passing Success Rate, 8 Total Turnovers (6 Fumbles), 84.0 Passer Rating, 5 Total Touchdowns(One Rushing), 15 Sacks, 16.8 Sack Rate, 177.7 Passing Yards Per Game, and all things considered serve as positive numbers for Maye. The Patriots faced three top-five NFL defenses in the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos, with Maye’s Toughest and most successful Statistically Battle This Postseason Probably Coming Against The Texans. Maye Generated A 100.0 Passer Rating, -2.4 EPA Per Play, and A Pick on Top Of Five Sacks against Three Touchdowns, 9 Of The 15 Patriot drives ended with a punt or a turnover, but the Patriots Pulled Out The Win. The Broncos Game Stands Out as his worst statistically, but the elements make for a difficult evaluation, because Of The Elements Both The Patriots And The Broncos Faced Most Of The Game, and even from a film study perspective, it’s Tough To Divide How Much The Defense Of The Elements Impacted Maye’s play, so that evidence holds no weight. Maye Attempted Just Eight Passes Over 10 Air Yards, Completing Just Two of Those Passes, then eight completions below 5 Air Yards. During The Season, Maye ranked second in intended air yards per attempt (9.1), +62.8 EPA On Pass 20 Air Yards Or More, and Maye Dashed The Texans' secondary for a timely Touchdown. Who Knows What Maye or McDaniels could’ve cooked up against Denver’s Defense In Fair Weather? The Texans' secondary played elite ball, allowing a passer rating of 30.97 To The Steelers Before Facing The Patriots. The Secondary Maye Prepares To Face Doesn’t Come In Hot, After Getting Shredded By Matthew Stafford. For the second game, they Faced The Rams. All four of Seattle's top targeted coverage types, Josh Jobe, Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Wholen, and Ernest Jones, generated a passer rating of 100 Or Better When Targeted. Witherspoon had two pass breakups, including one in the end zone in the fourth quarter for a potential game-changing touchdown, but Witherspoon Gave Up 135 Yards In Coverage Total. Tariq Wholen Registered An Excellent Pass Breakup In The Third Quarter But Committed A 15 Yard Taunting Penalty That Gave The Rams a new set of downs. Wholen Preceded To Get Assaulted For 34 Yards Touchdown On Deep Pass From Matthew Stafford, apart from the 57 Yards He Surrendered In pass Coverage, 122.9 Passer Rating. Matthew Stafford Finished The Game 22/35 for 374 Passing Yards, +0.45 EPA Per Play, Three Touchdowns, 127.6 passer rating, with the brunt of his damage affecting the Seahawks Cover One and Cover Three Looks In The Secondary, and may have had similar success against Cover One Looks Against Houston. Seattle’s Rookie Safety Nick Emmanwori Lived Up To The Billing: 47.9 Passer Rating, 90.1 PFF Grade. As a hybrid linebacker type, Emmanuel didn’t Feature In Much Of The Passing plan in terms of “Targeting” For The Rams. Just Five Targets faced three Pass Break Ups and Four Tackles. Most of the damage Maye Limited committed occurred against man coverage looks from the Texans. The Seahawks have played man coverage just 31.88% of their defensive possessions against the Rams. The Seahawks Entered The Playoffs With Number One Defense In Terms Of DVOA, But The Pressure Rate For Seattle Has Fallen Off Of A Cliff.In two playoff games, Seattle has generated a pressure rate of 18.4%, netting just nine pressures against Stafford and 26 against Brock Purdy the week prior. Seattle got the best of that Niners offensive line.The Seahawks Have Three Sacks Total in these playoffs, Primarily Because The Seahawks have logged a lot Of Snaps, and the pass rushers up front have a lot of tread on their tires, especially the ones above 30, Demarcus Lawrence and Leornard Williams, 31, Two Of Seattle’s Most Productive Pass Rushers. The Younger Players Along Seattle’s Line Don’t Generate A Lot Of Quick Pressure. The Seahawks Generated an Average Time To Pressure of 2.8 Against The Niners. Brock Purdy Held The Ball, 4.23 Seconds On Average In That Game; Stafford Registered 2.95 Seconds In Terms Of Time To Throw. Drake Maye Has Hovered Around 2.6 and 2.9 through The Wild Card Round To The Championship Round. The Patriots' Offensive Line Has Played “Spotty” At Best. Several Timely Leaks Have Led To Maye’s High Sack Rate, Especially At Tackle, With Rookie Left Tackle Will Campbell Registering Multiple Games With Multiple Pressure Surrendered Games. I don’t Expect The Seahawks ' pressure rate to surpass the 17 the Chargers Generated In The Wild Card Round. The Patriots don’t Have Any Receivers To The Scope Of A Puka Nacua or Even A Davante Adams, but Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte both made incredible touchdown catches in the Divisional Round Versus Houston. ESPN Wide Receiver Analytics ranked Stefon Diggs as the number one wide receiver in the sport, and we haven’t witnessed the best of him this postseason. The Patriots Roster Also Got Mack Hollins Back On The Active Roster. He Caught Two Passes For 51 Yards In His Return to Lead The Team.The Patriots offense features multiple options: Demario Douglas, Kyle Williams, and tight end Hunter Henry. The Seahawks ranked 16th against tight ends in terms of DVOA, and the offense starts with Drake Maye.
New England’s Run Game didn’t Register A lot Of Success On The Ground, 28.1 Success Rate, -0.1 Run EPA, but the run helped burn the clock, and Rhamondre Stevenson Finished With 71 Rushing Yards to Help The Patriots Escape The Elements In Denver. They will face the number one-ranked rush defense from the Season, 3.7 Yards Per Attempt Allowed, -0.185 EPA Per Attempt. The Rams Found Success Against The +0.12 EPA Per Run Play, 5.2 Yards Per Attempt. In the NFL, Successful Run Games Don’t function like a one-size-fits-all. The Rams' success suggests that the Patriots can also win against the Seahawks, and Seattle's Drake Maye poses a significant threat to the Patriots' offense.
The Patriots' defense leads the playoffs with a pressure rate of 40.4%. This marks a significant improvement compared to their regular season performance, where they had a pressure rate of 27.2%, ranking 27th overall. The pressure has notably intensified during the playoffs. The defensive tackle duo of Christian Barmore and Milton Williams ranked second and third in terms of interior pressure rate throughout the season. In contrast, the Seahawks' offense has allowed a pressure rate of 27.1%. The Rams pressured Darnold 14 Times, three Sacks, and 25 Yards Lost On Sacks. So Far This Postseason, Darnold has four touchdowns under pressure, according to Next Gen Stats. The Seahawks Offensive Line Ranks 15th According To PFF To End The Season, 12th In Pass Block Win Rate, 14th In Pff Pass Blocking, and Top Ten Run Blocking, With The Strength Of The Seattle Line Bookended At Tackle Charles Cross, but the vulnerability at the interior at the guard spots and center, making Seattle Particularly Vulnerable To Interior Pressure. Seattle Held Up Effectively Against The Rams' Pass Rush. The Seattle Ground Game Got Off To A Slow Start Over the First Half Of The Season, But Picked Up The Slack Over The Second Half After S Darnold’s Play Hit A Sharp Decline. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet delivered Seattle’s Two Victories Over The Niners. Los Angeles Slowed Down Walker, 62 Yards On 19 Carries, 3.3 Yards Per Carry, and One Touchdown, adding 49 Yards On Four Catches In The Receiving Game. The Rams Played With the Intent To Place Sam Darnold In The Driver’s Seat Of The Seattle’s Offense and Either Fold Or Deliver as Walker Faced A Loaded Box(8 air More Defenders In The Box) 36% Of his Rushing attempts. The Seahawks lost Charbonnet To An ACL in the Divisional Round. The team finished with a 26.9 Success Rate On Runs and expects the Patriots to deploy a similar strategy with fewer bodies sacrificed to slow down the run. The Patriots' run defense struggled against the Broncos, allowing a 42.9% success rate on the ground in tough conditions. However, this performance was an outlier compared to New England's other games against the run. Fortunately for Seattle, Darnold had an impressive game, completing 25 of 36 passes for 346 yards, three touchdowns, a passer rating of 127.6, a 61% success rate, an expected points added (EPA) of +0.48 per pass, and a total pass EPA of 22.9.
Darnold excelled with his receivers, making plays and creating yards after the catch. He achieved 21.3 expected points added (EPA) on yards after the catch, with 43.6% of his production coming from those plays.
Seattle’s Star Wide Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba Exploded All Over The Rams Exposed Secondary, A few Of His Catches Proved Above The Ordinary Like His One Hander Into The Boundary Early In The Game But The Rams Coverage Scheme Couldn’t Match Up With Smith-Njigba Who Broke Open On Multiple Occasion Including a second Half Touchdown When He Came Out Of The Back Field And Score A touchdown. The Patriots’ secondary hasn’t Faced Any top Receiver Like Talent In These Playoffs, As The Texans' Nico Collins missed their divisional matchup with a concussion. The Patriots' secondary has performed at an elite level this postseason. Both Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis have achieved passer ratings below 40 when targeted, with ratings of 39.0 and 21.4, respectively.
Add slot corner Marcus Jones, who allows a passer rating of 63.6 when targeted. The Patriots have been playing exceptionally well overall. Additionally, the Patriots can present a variety of options and body types against Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN), the key player in the Seahawks' offense. The Seahawks' other pass-catching options, such as Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed, and tight end A.J. Barner, have contributed with a play or two at times. However, they do not present the same level of threat or game-planning challenge as Smith-Njigba. The Patriots have the defensive capability to slow down Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which means Cooper Kupp or Shaheed will need to step up more than they ever have before—something the Rams struggled to accomplish. Ultimately, I believe the Patriots will succeed due to their strong coaching and the exceptional performance of their defense since the playoffs began. I Think Darnold Might Crash Land under The Pressure Of The Big Stage. I’m Not As Worried About The Patriots Offense Through Their Postseason Struggles -0.132 EPA Per Play, 36.2% Success Rate. These are because I don’t believe any team other than the Rams in these playoffs, outside of the Rams, would have struggled over a stretch of three top-five defenses faced. New England Getting Past The Texans Proved They Can Overcome Any Tough Defense and Sluggish Offense. Does That Mean Everything Looks “Right” With New England, No. But We Haven’t Seen The Best Of Drake Maye, Diggs, and McDaniel’s Thus Far This Postseason.
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