NFL Divisional Round Preview.

These Divisional Round Matchups Of The 2025 NFL Playoffs Inherited The Unceremonious Task Of Following Up The Michael Jackson Level Performances Of The Wild Card Games of One Week Ago. This Week Features a Couple Of Unique Matchups, A Third Contest Between Divisional Foes Who Split In The Regular Season, and A Rematch From Last Year’s Playoffs. No Matter Which Team Enters The Foray Rated Higher Than The Other, Every Game On The Slate Looks Like A Toss That could Come To Small Breaks In Tendencies Or Whether Elite Quarterbacks Have Their Juju Zapped before The Game. Regardless, it’s Football We’ll Watch, and I’ll Preview.

Bills Vs Broncos

The Broncos Take On The Bills in A Rematch Of Last Years’s Wildcard Round Showdown. The Bills Bested The Broncos In Upstate New York as Sean Payton And Bo Nic’s First Playoff Foray Ended In A Modest Disappointment. The Broncos Built Off Of The Successes of Last Season, Not Only Winning Their Division For The First time In A Decade, They Won The AFC Conference So The Road To Super Bowl Runs Through The Mile High A Legitimate Home Field Advantage In The NFL. if Josh Allen Desires To Reach The Super Bowl For The First Time In His Career He and The Bills Will Need To Win Three Straight Road Games. The Road Warrior Campaign Started Strong As Allen and the Bills Took Down The Jacksonville Jaguars in Florida, the franchise's first road win since 1992. How Did The Bills overcome the red-hot Jaguars? Josh Allen Willed Buffalo Through The Wild Cards One Touchdown Through The Air, two shoves on the Ground, +0.36 EPA Per Play, +11.3 Completion Percentage Over Expected, 16.4 Total EPA, 88.2% adjusted completion percentage, 83.9% accuracy percentage, 108.7 Passer Rating

and a 94.0 PFF grade. Allen Delivered On Big Throw After Big Throw(three, According To PFF) to Help The Bills Match The Output Of The Jags, While The Bills' defense waited to jump on Trevor Lawrence’s Mistakes. The Bills' pass defense ranked Fifth In EPA per dropback allowed, but conversely ranked 31st Defensively Against The Run. But the Jags Lean In On The Pass Game Late, and that's where most suspect Jacksonville Lost The Game. Lawrence Threw Two Interceptions On Top Of His three touchdowns, facing the Bills' secondary, ready for him. What Will The Bills Have In Store For Bo Nix? The Broncos Wrapped Up The Division and The Conference In Week 17, so we haven't seen Nix In Two Weeks But He Concluded His Second Season In The NFL With A 25/40 for 176 passing yards, Two Picks, 2.65 adjusted yards per attempt, with a 60.0 Passer Rating against the Titans. Nix Closed Out The Month Of December, Completing 68.7% Of his Passes, six touchdowns, Two Interceptions, and A 94 Passer Rating. He’ll Need Numbers Close To Those Or Better To Overcome The

Bills. The Bills' Zone Defense Frustrated Trevor Lawrence, Nix Finished The Season with an 84.4 Passer Rating against zone, 6.2 Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt Against. Nix Has Found Success Against Cover 2, the Bills' favorite zone, +0.205 EPA per drop-back, because he takes more Short Passes. According to Sports Info Solutions, Nix generated 83 Total Points On Passes Of Five Yards Or Less. Nix tends to avoid negative plays because he’s Virtually Un-sackable( 3.3% sack rate), Even When He’s Pressed To Locate A Options Down Field. He’s Also Dangerous As A Scrambler, 8.8 Yards Per Scramble When Defense Drops Into Deeper Quarters zone, so the Bills Will have An Interesting Time Combating Nix On The Ground. Buffalo’s Defense Finished Fifth In Pressure Rate On The Season and 14th In Sack Rate. The Broncos’ pass blocking scheme also ranks as one of the league’s best, on top of Nix’s Ability To Avoid Sacks And Mitigate Pressure By taking Short Passes. The Bills are ranked 14th in DVOA against top wide receivers, and much of the Broncos' passing offense relies on wide receiver Cortland Sutton.

Sutton Paced The Team In Multiple Receiving Categories, Including Total Receiving Yards, Seven Receiving Touchdowns, 54% Success Rate, 13.7 Yards Per Reception, 59.8 Yards Per Game. The Broncos want a big game for the big target. Second-year receiver Troy Franklin stepped up, finishing second on the team in touchdowns, receiving Yards, and Receptions. The Broncos' defense leads the league in pressures and sacks, and they will need to bring their best rushing efforts in hopes of neutralizing Josh Allen. According to PFF, Allen faced pressure on 38.5% of his dropbacks, recording a total of 17 pressures. He completed 8 out of 12 passes for 140 yards, including two big-time throws against the Jaguars. He’s always One Of the Toughest Challenges To Face In Terms of Pressure Effectiveness. Josh Allen relied Heavily On Yards After The Catch On The Season, Seventh Overall, Right Behind Bo Nix at sixth, and YAC Played A Crucial Role In Allen’s Production During The Wild Card Weekend, 104 Yards After The Catch. The Broncos Rank Fourth In Yards After The Catch Allowed. The Bills ranked number one, holding Jacksonville to 84 Yards After The Catch. This game Will Be Decided By whether the Broncos Decide To tailor Their Game Plan To Their Run Game and Focus On Attacking The Bills' weakness. The Broncos ranked sixth in EPA per rush and eleventh in rushing success rate this season, but they are better known for their passing attack under head coach and former quarterback Sean Payton. The Jags averaged 6.7 Yards Per Run and +0.09 EPA per run play, but wouldn’t Commit To The Run Game Through Out The Contest. Where and Who Will The Bills Look for Top Receiving Options Against This Tough Denver Secondary? Kahlil Shakir Finished 12/12 For 82 Receiving Yards, 61 Yards After The Catch. The Bills could use Him and Tight End Dalton Kincaid To Take Advantage Of The Broncos' worrisome and Lackluster linebackers In Coverage. When Josh Allen steps on the field, he's the best player out, but I think the Broncos have the edge, and In The Cold This Game Could Turn Out Close and Bo Nix Has Mastered The Art Of Pulling Out Close Games.

Bears Vs Rams

During an exciting weekend filled with entertaining games, the Rams and the Panthers proved to be the most captivating matchup. Both teams exchanged scores late in the game before Los Angeles managed to avoid an upset and secure a redemptive victory. Meanwhile, the Bears achieved their win by seizing the only lead change in the fourth quarter after overcoming an 18-point deficit heading into that period.. Chicago overcame Jordan Love’s four-touchdown performance and earned its deepest playoff run in almost a decade. Bears Quarterback Caleb Williams Got The Best Of The Packers Defense Late In The Fourth For The Second Game In A Row, And Registered 18.8 Pass EPA, The Best Number Of The Weekend (Tied With Jordan Love). What If Any Success Will Ben Johnson And The Bears find against the Rams? Advance Metrics From The Wildcard Weekend From The Rams favor Los Angeles Over Bryce Young, Who Finished 21/40 71.3 Passer Rating, +0.02 EPA Per Play, -5.9 Completion Percentage Over Expectation. Young passed the eye test, and He Generated Positive EPA on the Hitch Route, Flats Route, and Slant Routes while Struggling On Dig Routes. While I’ll Convert To The Small Congregation Of Bryce Young Believers—I Know You’re Out There Somewhere— His Play Didn’t Cost The Panthers. The Panthers' blocking scheme resulted in a total of 29 pressures, averaging 2.3 seconds to apply pressure. Young Generated -13.8 epa When Pressured, But + 5.78 epa When Kept Clean. The Bears generated The Number Pass Block Win Rate In Football Last Season, And Quarterback Caleb Williams Faced Just 14 Pressures against the Packers on A Ginormous 53 passing drop-backs. Chicago’s Offensive Line Features Two All-Pro Level Talents In Joe Thuney and Darnell Wright, Top Three At Their Respective Position, So If The Bears Can Keep The Pressure Rate Inside The 10-15 Range, That’s An Advantage To The Bears. If Williams can hit, find the same success Bryce Young Found Locking on Concepts and Routes like Hitches, flats, will, adding Some Go Ball Proficiency, The Seeds For an Upset Will Find Fertile Ground. Bryce Young Also Got The Ball Out Quickly on successful plays, a style of play Williams hasn’t embraced.

Caleb hasn't mastered efficiency, 361 Passing Yards On 48 attempts, 56.8% Adjusted Completion Percentage, But He’s Mastered The Art Of The Forth Quarter Comeback. He’s Up To Seven Fourth Quarter Comebacks This Season Against The Packers, Crucial Experience As He Prepares To Face Los Angeles. The Bears Have A Deep Trench Of Offensive Talent Out-wide. Number One Receiver Rome Odunze returns from injury, Rookie Luther Burden II Has Flashed Potential On Limited Targets, and Former Number One receiver DJ Moore is Mr. Clutch For The Bears This Season. But The True Number one Target For The Team Rookie Tight End Colston Loveland, the Michigan product, started the year with injury problems but came on strong. He caught the game-winning touchdown against the Year With Injury Problems But Came On Strong Catch The Game Winning Touchdown Against The Bengals, and just wrapped up his first playoff performance with eight receptions, 137 Receiving Yards. The Rams ' defense ranked number two in DVOA. Defending Tight ends Simply Because LA’s Defense Always Runs Nickel Coverage With Five Defensive Backs On The Field But Loveland presents a unique problem with His Size and Strength. Led by MVP Candidate Matthew Stafford, the Rams Lead The League In First Quarter Scoring, but Stafford is mostly dominant late in games, boasting a 119.7 Fourth Rating. Except for the Week 15 Collapse Against Seattle, we’ve witnessed Stafford's immunity to fourth-quarter collapses. The Chinks In The Armor Of The Rams Offense Started To Glare Against The Panthers Defense, Struggles On Third Down all and Against The Panthers 3/13(23%), The Rams Rank 17th In Third Down Conversion Rate on The Season But Rank 4th In Scoring Percentage, First In Points Per Drive, And Converted 100 Of The 441 First And Ten Yards To Go They Faced, 71 Passing First Down Conversions On Such downs. Outside Of Turnovers, which Chicago Ranks Number One In Turnover Percentage(18.3%), the Bears' defense stands out in any one category, but neither did the Panthers, Who Managed To Pick Off Matthew Stafford. The Bears Rank 22nd in third-down conversion rate allowed. This Game represents a strength-on-strength matchup, but the key To Slowing Down Matthew May Lie In Forcing Him Off His First Read, usually Puka Nacua, Who Garnered 44.1% Target Share as The First Read In The Rams' last game. The Bears Know They Need To Cover Nacua and possibly double-team him on occasion as He Averages 108.3 receiving yards Per Game. The Pick: Matthew Stafford Targeted His Second Wide Receiver, Davante Adams. On The Pick He Threw Against The Panthers to Carolina cornerback Mike Jackson. Taking Stafford Away From His First Option Can Also Force The Rams In 2nd and Long Down and Distance To Go Where The Rams Offense Struggles(Or At Least Becomes Less Effective Compared To 1st and Long), Which Creates More Third Down Opportunity for An Offense For Los Angeles That Struggles On Third Down With Impunity. The Bears Rank Ninth In Defensive DvOA Versus Number One Receiver, and While I don’t Expect Chicago To Overwhelm Puka Nacua Or Keep Him “In Check”, I Trust That The Past Defense Should At Least Make Things Tough On Nacua. I Like The Bears At Home In The Cold. The Bears Shorten The Game with The Run And Grind It Out Style, Maybe Force A Turnover And Keep Stafford On The Sideline.

Seahawks Vs 49ers

The First Playoff Action For Sam Darnold With The Seahawks As The Number One Seed In The NFC Will Feature a Familiar Foe, NFC West Rival, The San Francisco 49ers, In The Divisional Round. Darnold Will Play In Only His Second Career Playoff Game, with Last Year’s Drubbing At The Hands Of The Rams Still Looming Over Darnold like an inescapable dark cloud. Darnold Finished The Game 25/40 for 245 Passing Yards, One Touchdown, and 32.7% Rate and. Despite the flameout, the Seahawks Ran The Risk-Ish Move On The One Season Wonder Former Third Overall Pick By Handing 100 Million To deliver The Team Back To The Playoffs. Darnold delivers 14. Win Now. The Real Test Begins. The last time these two teams faced off, the Seahawks Won The Division In a Week 18 Victory Over The Niners. Last season, This Season He Performed Modestly Effectively 20/26 198 Passing Yards, One Touchdown, One Pick, and For The Season He’s Completing 73% Of His Passes For 174 passing Yards In Two Contests. The Niners ranked 27th in defensive EPA DVOA all season by the end of the season.Darnold’s Mediocre Performance in a loss to a then-healthy Niners Team Makes Sense But In Week 18, after Injuries Ravished the Niners Roster, Darnold Thriving Off Of His Defense and 128 Yards After Catch (64.6% Of His Yard Production) in what boiled down to a pre-playoff game against the Niners. "Sam is the same guy every day." Coach McDonald Said Of Darnold, whose plays have dropped off considerably over the second half of the season. In September and October, Darnold's Registered Passer Rating was 106.5 and 112.1, respectively. In November, December, and January, the scores were 94.2, 89.3, and 97.9. Darnold playing like the same guy every day does not denote confidence. To compensate for Darnold’s decline in performance, Seattle’s rushing attack, which began the season ranked among the worst in the league, has improved to eighth overall in EPA per rush since Week 12, after being 26th in Weeks 1-11. Seahawks Running Back Kenneth Walker Racked Up 133 Yards From Scrimmage Against The Niners, 50 Yards After The Catch. Running Back Saquon Barkley Found Similar Success Against This Niners Defense, 131 Yards Of Offense. The Niners ' defense managed to slow down Jalen Hurts. Downfield hurts. Completed Zero Passes Over 20 Air Yards, Just One At Fifteen Air Yards. Darnold suffered a Similar Fate In Week with Zero Completions Over 20 Air Yards and Just Two Completions Over 15 Air Yards, +6.3% Completion Percentage Over Expected. Through Week 11, Darnold Generated A 69.6 Completion Percentage and passer rating (151.7) on deep passes in the Next Gen Stats era, but since then, he’s Fallen Off From That Unsustainable Level. The 49ers, despite lacking significant talent, depend on a strategic scheme to counter the strengths of opposing quarterbacks and mitigate the effectiveness of their passing attacks against their defense. The Eagles finished the game with a passing success rate of 36.8%, which is an impressive achievement for the 49ers' defense, especially considering they faced one of the weaker passing offenses in football. The Biggest Difference In The Niners Week 18 Loss To The Seahawks, A Goal Line Interception By Brock Purdy Targeting Running back Christian McCaffrey That Blasted Out Of His Hand And Into The Hands Of Seahawks Linebacker Drake Thomas. Christian McCaffrey Had A Better Time Receiving Against The Eagles, 66 Yards Receiving, Two Touchdowns On Eight Targets. The Niners Will Need Similar Work From McCAffrey With Tight End George Kittle Out For The Season With An Achilles Injury. Demarcus Robinson Stepped Up In The Absence Of Kittle For A Career Playoff Game Six Receptions For 111 receiving yards and one touchdown, but the Niners Need A consistent Threat, Perhaps The Potential Return Of Wide Receiver Ricky pearsal Provides Another Option To Open Up The Offense. The Niners Will Have Offensive Tackle Trent Williams For This One. Williams Finished Top 10 In Run Block Win Rate This Season, and His Presence Could Help Crack Window For A Better Performance On The Ground For The Niners. The Seahawks ' defense ranks 3rd In Run Stop Win Rate and Held Christian McCaffrey To Just 23 Yards On The Ground On 8 Carries. Maybe the presence of Williams Adds A Little Lift To The Run Game. Matthew Stafford Showcased How To Net Big Numbers Against This Seahawks’ Passing Defense, 457 In Week 16. Stafford Exist In Class All By Himself Even Compared To A Guy Like Brock Purdy, The Offensive Player Of The Month For December In The NFL. Purdy generated a 74.23 Completion Rate and A 131.5 Passer rating.

In December, before facing off against the Seahawks in January, can he redeem that performance? I trust the Seahawks' defense and run game to get the job done. I fear that the Niners won't have enough firepower to overcome the various strategies Seattle employs on defense. As a result, the Niners are likely to have another rough game offensively, allowing Seattle to advance to the NFC Championship.

Patriots Vs Texans

For the third straight season, the Texans notch a playoff win, their seventh straight win going back to the regular season after An Ominous 0-3 Start To The Season. Despite playing second fiddle to the defense, quarterback CJ Stroud Notch His Third Straight Playoff Victory To Start His Career. Stroud doesn’t Command The Same Interest As He Did a last Year Or The Year Before Because His Play Has Steadily Decline, 157.2 Passer Rating In 2023, 90.7 Passer Rating In 2024, and 86.7 Passer Rating. Advance Metrics Like EPA Per Play(0.01 EPA Per Play) and Success Rate(45.7%) Didn’t Like Stroud’s Performance, but Judging By The Film, Stroud Produced One Of His Best Performances Of The Season. He Suffered A Few Gaffs, Like A Fumbled Flea Flicker, Another lost Fumble, And Interception In The Steelers Red zone and These Flukey High Variance plays Plateau Stroud Results and Some Bad Snaps Stroud Generated 15.9 Pass EPA, Better Than Josh Allen, Better Than Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye Over The wild Card Weekend and Not Far Off From Jordan Love and Caleb Williams Tied At 18.8 Pass EPA. The Steelers Only Pressure Stroud on 8.9% of his plays. Historical Ineptitude For Any Pass Rush Against one of the easiest quarterbacks to sack or pressure in the NFL, 14 total pressures, Three Sacks On 35 drop-backs. Texans Running Back Woody Marks And Nick Chubb Racked Up 160 Yards On 29 Carries +5.1 EPA Total as One Of The Best Games Of The Season. As the Texans' offense amassed 411 Yards Of Offense, + 0.100 EPA Per Play With A Standout Performance By Receiver Christian Kirk, 144 receiving, 8/8 On Targets and Receptions. Can Houston Replicate This Success Against A Confident Patriots Defense Fresh Off Shutting Down Justin Herbert And The Chargers Offense -0.267 EPA Per Play While Amassing 31 Pressures and Six Sacks. Patriots' pass coverage forced Herbert to hold the ball an average of 3.43 seconds. However, the Patriots also pressured the Chargers' struggling offensive line, which was ranked 32nd in pass block win rate, while Houston was ranked 30th in the same category.The Patriots' defense allowed 4.0 Yards Per Rush, three explosive plays, but Most of the Chargers' gains came on scrambles. Drake Maye And The Patriots' offense versus the Texans' MVP Defense Will Determine This Game. Maye’s First Playoff Battled Ended With A Win Over The Chargers, but he looked less than MVP-like, finishing with 268 Passing Yards and an 86.8 passer rating, one pick, and one touchdown. Maye Finished With solid numbers counting-wise, but he didn’t Register A Touchdown Until The Fourth Quarter Against the Chargers' top ten defense. The Texans entered the playoffs ranked number two and lived up to the billing, holding the Steelers' passing attack to a 23.1% success rate and -0.63 passing EPA.Aaron Rodgers finished the game with -0.68 EPA per play and -7.4 pass EPA (his individual pass EPA does not include damage sustained due to turnovers and sacks). He had 2.89 seconds to throw. He averaged 2.5 seconds on the season, so the Texans’ pass rush didn’t Exactly Win. Instead, the Texans' secondary played lockdown defense. Derek Stingley, Callen Bullock, Jalen Pitre, and Kamari Lassiter, as members of the Texans Elite Secondary, Generated A 30.97 Passer Rating When Targeted against the Steelers. Calen Bullock Netted The Final Pick Six Of The Game, and Their Coverage Versus A Mostly Lackluster Steelers receiving corps netted the Texans 20 Pressures, Four Sacks Of Rodgers. Derek Stingley Remains the ShroudsOver Which Side Of The Field He Plays On, and Pitre Can Cloak another Quarter Of The Field, So Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels Will Have To Get Creative To Spring His Players Open. The Patriots' Offensive Line Got Pasted By The Chargers. Chargers Edge Rusher Odafe Oweh is a Top 25 Pass Rusher According To PFF, But Not a Top Ten Guy Like The Texans' Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. The Dynamic Duo of Hunter and Anderson Generated A Pressure Rate Of 45.9%, 15 pressures, and 1.5 sacks, and Anderson Would Probably Win His First Defensive Player Of The Year If Not For Myles Garrett’s record-setting season. The Steelers Found Some Success Running The Ball Against The Texans, 44% Success Rate. Of course, they didn’t Run The Ball Much, just 32.1% Play Rate, and Jaylen Warren Produced Two Explosive Runs But Pittsburgh Decided To Lean In On The Short Passing Game Resulting In Mediocre Offense. Would the Texans' defense Have Generated Record Success -33.4 EPA on a Sunday? We’ll Get A Taste Of That When They Face Drake Maye. The Patriots' top Threat Against The Chargers' tight end Hunter Henry, the Texans Rank Number Two In DVOA versus tight ends and Number Six Versus Number One Receivers. The Patriots' defense shut down the Chargers Run Game Making Los Angeles one-dimensional and Easier To Defend. The Texans finished the season ranked 29th in Rushing DVoA For The Season. If New England's defense Can Accomplish The Same Feat Against The Texans With The Chargers, New England Should Control The Game. This Game Will Play Off Beautifully, only To The Blind This Defensive Will Come Down To Which Quarterback Executes Late and I trust Drake Maye Under These Conditions.