NFL Conference Championship Previews.
The Ankle Injury To Broncos Quarterback Bo Nix Put A Damper On This Highly Anticipated Conference Championship Weekend But These Highlight The Two Best TeamS In Each Conference Throughout The Season. The “Weak Schedule” Argument Against The Patriots Doesn’t Hold Up Anymore, More As The Pats Held Their own Against Two Top 15 Teams In The League To Secure Their Spot In The Championship Round. The Broncos' defense went toe-to-toe with arguably the best football player in the world, Josh Allen, and now they face MVP candidate Drake Maye. Jarrett Stidham, While Less Threatening Than The Mildly Threatening Bo Nix, Has Averaged 270 Yards Passing Game Over His Career, So The Patriots Can’t Over Look This Denver Team. The Rams and Seahawks have had a couple of fierce matchups. Although the two teams split those games, the Seahawks ultimately triumphed by winning the division, securing the conference's number one spot, and earning a bye week. Meanwhile, the Rams managed to fend off two upset bids and have survived to face Seattle once more.During the season, the Rams Came One Fourth Quarter Collapse, One Punt Return Touchdown, and one miraculous two-point conversion away from Sweeping The Seahawks, But Everyone Likes Seattle In This Conference Title Game Based On The Beatdown The Seahawks Gave The Niners In The Divisional Round.
Broncos Vs Patriots
The Bo Nix Season Ankle Injury Flattened Or Shattered The Broncos Super Bowl odds on the penultimate play of the Broncos Divisional Round Win Over The Bills. A Gutsy Performance For Nix, Who Delivered For The Broncos When Much Of The Offense’s Staples And Contingencies Didn’t Connect Against The Bills' Defense, But Denver Earned A Lot Of Points On Fumble Luck (+13.6 EPA Off Turnovers). In His Second Season As The Starting Quarterback For The Broncos, the franchise guy, Nix didn’t Make Any Strides. In some frames, In Some Frames He Took Steps Back And Stride Weren’t Expected From a Quarterback Who Spent Five Years In College.
Quarterback Critic View Bo More As Mediocre Than Superstar Highlighted By His +0.13 EPA Per Dropback and 87.8 Passer Rating, But The Offense for the Broncos Operates On Nix’s Authority. The Former Oregon Duck Managed 50 Dropback, Thats 73% Of The Broncos Play Call(50/68) +0.04 EPA Per Pass Play, Three Touchdowns Despite His Receivers Struggling With Multiple Drops Nix Made. Call Him Mediocre. The Denver offense will feel his loss in this AFC championship, and so will the defense. Before Nix went down, the Broncos were already facing other challenges. The defense hasn’t lived up to the reputation that Denver established earlier in the season. Over the last four meaningful weeks of the season (weeks 12-15), before the final two weeks against two backup quarterbacks, the Broncos ranked 22nd in EPA per play. This included a game in which they allowed four touchdowns to Trevor Lawrence and nearly 300 yards to Marcus Mariota, as well as surviving an upset bid in overtime against a team with three wins. "We didn't escape." We won,” Head Coach Payton Said After The Game Win Over The Commanders, but “Escape” Became The Operative Word For The Rest Of Broncos ' season from Then On. Denver “eke out” Victories Against The Patrick Mahomes-Less Chiefs, and the Packers by Picking Off Jordan Love Twice, and The Fortunate Turnover Boosted Mediocrity Followed Denver In The Playoffs. In the Divisional Round, the Bills' offense produced a 51% Success Rate, Josh Allen Netted A 20.2 EPA(Not Accounting For Turnovers), +0.21 EPA Per Play, +6.3 On Runs, and This Proves Consistent For The Broncos Defense Throughout. Love(13.4 Pass EPA) and Lawrence(18.4 Pass EPA) Posted Similar Production Against The Broncos. The Denver Broncos’ sack rate has significantly decreased after starting the season at a record pace, averaging 4.5 sacks per game. Over the past three weeks, their performance fell, allowing 13 to 16 sacks—a notable drop of 1.5 sacks. Consequently, they dropped from first place in sack rate for the season to thirteenth over the final five weeks. In a recent game against the Broncos, Josh Allen was sacked three times but completed 25 of 30 passes for 283 yards and three touchdowns, despite being 0 for 9 on deep throws. According to NFL.com, the Broncos rank 17th in NFL Pro’s defensive efficiency on quick throws 2.5 Or Less Heading Into The Division Round, and Josh Allen won on quick throws, accumulating 188 Yards After The Catch Total, 7.5 YAC on Average.
The Broncos Will Move On From Facing The Current MVP to The Facing The Likely MVP Runner Up Patriots Quarterback Drake Maye, Not exactly A Quick Throw Specialist, Maye Finished The With An Average Time To Throw Of 2.97 Seconds, Against The Texans He Sped Things Up 2.6 But when Held The Ball, Its Results In Two Sacks Force Fumbles By Texans Defensive Lineman And Danielle Hunter. When Maye Had Time He Uncorked Two Throw Of The Year Candidates An Eight Yard Laser Beam To Stefon Diggs in between Two Defenders With 0.4 Separation and A Deep Whistle To Kayshon Boutte over Derek Stingley for a fourth-quarter lead, extending a touchdown. The Patriots Won Most Of Their One On One Battles With Texans, and they’ll need to win more one-on-one battles with the Broncos, A Team That Plays The Highest Rate Of Man coverage In Football.
Houston’s Much Like Denver Brought Their Top Ten Defense To Slow Down Maye, But The Man Labeled The “NFL’s most effective deep passer this season” Won Out At The Close Of The Game. Can Denver Another Shut Out On Deep Passes Against The Patriots?
According to the NFL.con The Broncos rank second in Defensive Efficiency on “extended throws” 2.5 Or More. Denver’s Defense Likes To Blitz, and They Pressured Opponents On Over 41% Of The Dropbacks The Broncos faced. Patriots Quarterback Drake Maye Excelled Under Pressure, 76 first downs and TDs created, 99 Completions, 10 Touchdowns In Total, And A 103.1 Passer Rating. 232 Pressures Face, 38.6% Pressure Rate Faced. Another Caveat Of Maye Versus Pressure, 62 scrambles, his 423 scramble rushing yards, + 0.43 EPA/carry on scrambles. Josh Allen Hit The Broncos Defense Up 12 Carries For 66 Rushing Yards, 5.5 Yards Per Carry. One Of Maye’s Fumbles Happened On A Scramble when a Texans Defender Knocked the Ball Free From Maye’s Grasp.
The Patriots' offensive line performed “Fair” Protecting Maye against Houston, just twelve pressures, so Maye Needs To Play More Protective With The Ball In The Pocket.
The Schedule Argument Against The Patriots' First Winning Season Since 2021 Can Finally Rest In Peace In Undertaker Voice. The Patriots Defeated The Chargers and The Texans By An Average Of Two Scores Albeit In Muddied Fashion. The Patriots Defense For The Second Week In A Row Catch A Break Facing A Lackluster Offense In The Broncos, Denver Ran the Ball A Measly 19 Times Against The League’s 29th Worse Rushing Defense Of Buffalo. The Patriots Came Into The Playoff 23rd In Defensive Rushing DVOA, 16th in EPA per rush allowed, but New England has handled both the Texans( 2.2 Yards Allowed Per Carry) and the Chargers( 4.0 Net Yards Per Carry). The Chargers had 50 Scramble Yard By Hebert, 37 yards on Design Runs. Even if Sean Payton Wanted To Lean On His Run Game To Protect His “Veteran Inexperienced” Back Up Quarterback Against This Patriots team, it doesn’t seem Like The Most Auspicious Opportunity. The Broncos ' receivers, Marvin Mims, led the team in receiving 8/8 for 93 Receiving Yards, and Drew The Game Sealing Pass Interference Call On The Bills. This Broncos Group Lacks A True Game Changer. Lead Receiver Cortland Sutton Came Down With 4/9 Targets for 53 Receiving Yards, But He Dropped or Mishandled Several Other Opportunities. This Patriots defense played sticky coverage on the Texans' receiver group. The Broncos had fair success creating separation against the Bills, unlike the Texans against New England.
If The Broncos Manage To Generate Success With Jarrett Stidham, The Patriots' Red Zone Defense Ranks 30th In The League and Almost A Guaranteed Touchdown Inside The Ten. Bo Nix Netted Five Red Zone Touchdowns In The Red Zone This Season, and His Ability To Stretch Plays Out With His Legs Added To His Threat. Stidham Can Work On The Move, He Ranked Number One Amongst Threat Quarterbacks In His High School Class That Included Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. Stidham Ran A 4.8 Seconds on the 40 Yard Dash At The Combine, and the Patriots Moved Him To Tight End For Time Before releasing Him. Hopefully, he’s As Effective As Bo Nix In This Matchup. The Patriots' offense found 15 Successful Plays Against Houston and Finished With A 30% Success Rate. Patriot Receivers Don’t Separate At A High level, Unless Drake Maye Suffers Another Mistake-Prone Day and He’s Had A Rash Of Turnovers In These Playoffs, I don’t See How The Broncos Can Overcome The Loss Of Nix Even With an Elite But Not Actually Elite Defense.
The Patriots' meager Yards After catch Production in the pass game intrigues me in a concerning way in this matchup, but I’m Confident The Patriots Defense Will Hold Even Without The Expectation Of High Pressure Numbers Against This Very Good Broncos Offensive Line. The Pats Defense Pressured Stroud 27 Times, but the front four for the Pats Lack Difference Making Pass Rush Talent.
The Patriots Advance To The Super Bowl, Defeating The Broncos.
Seahawks Vs Rams
The Seahawks moved on to the next round after exiting round three, but it almost didn’t happen. Seattle took care of business against their division rival, the 49ers, in the only no-contest of the weekend. The Evening Started With concerns over Sam Darnold and An Apparent Oblique Injury The Seahawks Starter Sustained In Practice. The Injury Came Out of Nowhere, and Discussion About Drew Lock Starting In Darnold’s Place Started To Surface. Darnold Started Just The Second Game Of His Career But The Seahawks didn’t Really Need Darnold In The End, as the defense held the Niners to -0.465 EPA Per Play, 3.9 Yards Per Play, Six Points On The Game. Kenneth Walker 22 Touches, 4 Explosive Runs, 145 Yards Of Offense as His Work On The Ground Taking Pressure Off Of Sam Darnold. With the Niners Showing Emphasis On slowing down Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks ' number one receiver and The League Leader In receiving yards, but offseason acquisition Cooper Kupp Stepped Up, catching Five Passes For 60 Receiving Yards. The Offense Averaged +0.140 EPA Per Play In The Blowout Win. The Rams' Road Back To The Conference Title Back To This Matchup With Seattle Came Through A Much More Challenging Road. The Rams Defeated The Panthers In A Down-to-the-Wire Matchup In The Wild Card. In The Divisional Round, the Rams Survived Some Late Heroics By Caleb Williams To Knock off The Bears In Over Time. The Seahawks Had A Bye And A Half Thanks To Handling The Niners, and the Rams have pushed to rollercoaster performances, so which team has momentum?
Matthew Stafford hasn’t Lived Up To The MVP standards. He played better in the Regular Season. He Played Better Against The Panther(+0.13 EPA Per Play) Than He Did Against Chicago(+0.04 EPA Per Play), with one turnover against the Panthers. Stafford Racked Up 300 Passing Yards, Three Touchdowns, and One Pick Compared To 258 Passing Yards and Zero Touchdowns Against Chicago, As Both Defenses Managed To Slow Down The Rams' Run 45.8% Success Rate A Little Ways Off From Their League Leading Rate Of 50.1 Success Rate On The Season. Sean McVay Has To Call More Passes, Open Stafford Up To More Pressure, Four Sacks From The Bears, and Stafford Struggled Throwing Into The Boundary Against The Panthers’ secondary. A Similar Phenomenon In Stafford’s Game Happened When The Rams Faced The Seahawks In Week 16, The Rams ended The Game With a 38.5% Success Rate On The Ground And Despite Matthew Stafford Hitting The Seahawks With The FlameThrower +25.5 Pass EPA, 457 Passing Yards and Darnold Suffering Two big picks For -12.2 EPA, and out-gaining Seattle by 166 yards Stafford and The Rams Offense Collapsed In The Fourth and In over Time. The Rams generated just 14 Yards On Their First Three Drives Of The Quarter, All Punts. The Punted Four Times In The Fourth Quarter and missed a Field Goal. Running The Ball Against Seattle boils down to more than execution or a change In Philosophy, and More Of An If The Seahawks Simply Allowed The Rams To Run. McVay’s Rushing Play Calling Wont Change Based On His Opponent Because The Team Practices and Builds Their Roster To Fit The Scheme. The Rams Must Try For the Sake Of Shortening The Game And Decreasing The Strain On Matthew Stafford, Or At Least Hope Stafford Finds His “Mojo” Back. The Rams Will Have Davante Adams Available. He Missed That Week 16 Matchup A Hamstring Injury, and the Rams' red zone execution plummeted To 50% Without The League Leader In receiving Touchdowns. Adams Also Excelled In short Coverage, finishing The Year 19th In Yards Per Route Run(1.93), Seventh In Targets Per Route Run, and 51 First Down Receptions On The Season.
Adams Hauled In Just Two Catches, Including An Impressive Sideline Toe Drag Reception That Spurred The Rams' Overtime Drive. The Presence Of Adams Takes Attention Away From The Almighty Puka Nacua, the Rams' Top Receiver. The Last Time He Faced The Seahawks, Nacua Produced His Best Game Of The Season, 225 Yards On 12 Catches, Seven First Downs, as The Seahawks Had No Answer For Him and Stafford. Darnold hasn’t Played Well Against The Rams Defense This Season 1:3 Touchdown To Interception Ratio 62.4 Passing, 65% 274 Passing Yards Per Game, 7.08 Yards Per Attempt On High Volume and Before Crushing The Niners In Back To Back Games Including The Wild Card Round Darnold Did Not Generate A brilliant Close To The Season Ranking 22nd In EPA Per Play From Week 13-18. The Seahawks' offense will be less effective in running the ball in the upcoming game because backup running back Zach Charbonnet is out.
The Rams built their roster with a focus on both offense and defense, but they struggled in special teams, finishing last in that category. In contrast, the Seahawks ranked number one in special teams performance, including being in the top three for both kick return and punt return yardage. Rashid Shaheed’s 58 Yard Punt Return For The Seahawks In The Fourth Swung Momentum And Lifted Seattle back into the game, in which they won in overtime. The Punt Return Touchdown By Shaheed Cut The Rams’ lead to one score while taking little to no time off the game clock.
The Rams fired special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn in late December after a series of special teams issues, including a blocked field goal against the Eagles, which cost the Rams multiple games during the season. With Top Shelf Names like Adams, Stafford, and Nacua, the Rams Neglected Punter and blocking Scheme. The Seahawks Have The More Diversified And Balanced Defense From The Pass Rush Up Front OnThe Speed and Mailability On The Back End With Their Corners and Safety. I’m More Confident In What The Seahawks Have Committed To Executing On Defense Than I Am In The Rams' offensive effectiveness. Matthew Stafford Pokes Holes and Shreds the Rams’ Defense. He’s Played Wildly Inconsistent In Recent weeks. If Both Teams Entered This Conference Championship With Two Thrilling Games In Their Trails, I’d Trust The Rams Offense To Overwhelm Seattle, but Seattle Should Catch A Rams Team Perhaps Exhausted Or At least Low On Adrenaline After The First Two Weeks. However, I Expect A thrilling Game.
